Jackpott Ölaktie Gulf Keystone !

 

Ich jedenfalls halte an "meiner" Gulf K. Aktie fest,auch wenn hier nur und ausschliesslich noch von Brennstoffzellen,E-autos und einer Welt ohne Benzin gefaselt wird,junge junge:

http://www.ariva.de/forum/...-noch-Wieder-362134?page=120#jumppos3002

Chalifmann  

...erneut die 100 Pence-Marke durchbrochen (nach oben versteht sich)! Hoffentlich bleibt jetzt endlich diese Richtung für die nächsten paar Jahre stabil!  

derzeit bei 8,5% in London.. bewegt sich zwischen 103-104 pence :-))  

...nur in Amiland will sie niemand haben! Da wurden heute bis jetzt 1,8 K gehandelt, bei einem Kurs von 1,66 US$. Nach meiner Umrechnungstabelle (Excel mit aktuellen Kursen) müsste der Kurs aber bei über 1,70 $ liegen. Aber macht ja nix, wenn die Briten den Kurs bestimmen. So lange es weiter rauf geht, bin ich Happy!  :o)    

...in GB ist heute ein Feiertag, deshalb wird auch nicht gehandelt. Da die großen Umsätze aber genau dort gemacht werden, wird es wohl heute kaum eine große Veränderung bei Kurs geben. Morgen wieder...  

...scheinen im Augenblick der Wiederstand zu sein. Heute haben wir knapp darüber geschlossen mit 0,5 Pence. das Spielchen kann jetzt noch so ne Weile weiter gehen. Die Börse sagt: 3 x wird getestet, dann geht es weiter,... sowohl nach unten wie auch nach oben. Doch im Augenblick durchlaufen wir einen Aufwärtstrend, also gehe ich davon aus, dass wir weiter zulegen werden! Muss ja nicht alles sofort passieren, aber eine stabile nördliche Richtung würde ich hier gerne erleben!  

...auf 96 Pence   :o/  

Moin,moin!

Ich muss meine bullische 5000% Prognose für Gulf K. doch erst mal mittelfristig nach unten reviedieren,denn das ist einfach noch zu optimistisch,5000% würde bedeuten,dass Gulf doppelt so teuer wäre wie gigant Repsol,aber dafür ist der Output im Irak derzeit noch viel zu gering,da müssen ganz andere Grössenordnungen her wie z.b. 200.000 Barrel/day,was ja langfristig sicher auch machbar ist,daran besteht für mich kein Zweifel,kurz bis mittelfristig sehe ich aber mindestens eine gute 100 - 200% Chance für den Kurs ,vielleicht mehr,das ATH von 450 Pence sollte mittelfristig drin sein !

Viel Erfolg !

MFG
Chali  

 

Cashreiche,schuldenfreie Company,aber noch kein Öl gefunden bisher,es soll ja auf den Falklands öl ohne ende geben,also mal im auge behalten das ding:  

Da gibt es eine Partei mit einem Programm,konkret und greifbar,müssen wir als Gulf K. Aktionäre Angst vor dieser Partei haben ?  

Morgen Früh werden die Interimszahlen von Q1 bekannt gegeben. Bin mal gespannt wie sich das auswirken wird...  

14 May 2014

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE: GKP)



Interim Management Statement



Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited ("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company") is pleased to present the Company's first Interim Management Statement for the period from 1 January 2014 to today.



Overview



On 25 March 2014, Gulf Keystone's common shares were admitted, with a standard listing, to the Official List of the United Kingdom Listing Authority and to trading on the London Stock Exchange plc's ("LSE") main market for listed securities ("Main Market"). The move from AIM to the Main Market was a significant milestone in the growth and transition of Gulf Keystone from an independent oil and gas explorer to an established exploration and production company.



On 17 April 2014, Gulf Keystone closed on a US$250 million debt financing that will fully fund the Company and its development plan into 2015. Under that plan, the Company expects to achieve an increase of production from Shaikan PF-1 and PF-2 to 40,000 gross barrels of oil per day ("bopd") by year-end 2014 from the current level of 15,000-16,000 gross bopd. Currently, average Shaikan production for the year to December 2014 is expected to be equivalent to approximately 20,000-25,000 gross bopd.

Gulf Keystone commenced Shaikan crude oil exports by truck to Turkey in December 2013 and the first export sales in late January 2014. In Q1 2014, gross export deliveries by truck totalled 836,205 barrels. Gross domestic sales in Q1 2014 totalled 24,767 barrels, with sales realisations of US$42 per barrel and further 7,163 barrels of gross domestic sales in April 2014. Production revenues are expected to increase significantly in H2 2014.

In May 2014, Gulf Keystone received a US$6.46 million gross payment for the first Shaikan crude oil export sales. The Company records revenue in its accounts on a cash received basis resulting in a time lag between the physical production and shipment of crude oil and payment. The time lag can be significant with an approximate US$24 million net outstanding to the Company, after the first payment of US$6.46 million gross received in May 2014, from the commencement of oil sales in January 2014 to date. This therefore gives rise to uncertainty in the timing of revenue recognition and guidance for 2014. At this time, revenue guidance for 2014 is in the range of US$150 million to US$180 million which reflects the Company's current view on cash payment and current production levels.

Production and Infrastructure



· Shaikan PF-1 is currently producing from three wells, Shaikan-1, -3 and -4.



· Hook-up of Shaikan-8 and Shaikan-7 to PF-1 is expected later in 2014; flowlines are being ordered.



· Shaikan PF-2 has been commissioned and the start-up process has commenced with live oil flowing from Shaikan-5 to the production facility, which will also be producing from Shaikan-2 and -10.



· Flowlines are being ordered for an additional development well to be drilled and hooked-up to Shaikan PF-2.



Exploration



· Due to a number of mechanical failures in the course of the drilling operations, the Shaikan-7 deep exploration well has not been able to achieve its objective and will now be converted into a Jurassic producer and tied into Shaikan PF-1. Based on well logs, Shaikan-7 should become a prolific producing well and the full cost of the well should be recovered within six months from first production.



· A new deep exploration well to test the previously undrilled deep Triassic and potentially Permian horizons, which is a commitment under the approved Shaikan Field Development Plan, will be added to the drilling schedule.



Development and Appraisal



· Appraisal of the Sheikh Adi discovery is ongoing with Sheikh Adi-3 currently drilling ahead at 2,150 metres after having experienced some mechanical difficulties.



· Early production from the Bijell Extended Well Test Facility on the Akri-Bijeel block commenced in March 2014 expected to ramp-up to 10,000 bopd by the end of 2014.



· Field Development Plan for the Bijell and Bakrman discoveries on the Akri-Bijell block has been submitted to the Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Natural Resources by MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas plc, the operator.



· Appraisal of the Bijell and Bakrman discoveries is ongoing with wells operating at Bijell-2, -4, -6 and Bakrman-2 respectively.



Finance



· Successful debt offering of US$250 million in three-year senior unsecured notes due April 2017, privately placed in accordance with Reg S/144A with institutional investors in Europe, the US and Asia.



· As of 30 April 2014, cash, cash equivalents and liquid investments of approximately US$270 million.





Corporate



· Mr Chris Garrett retired from his position as the Company's Vice President Operations after 10 years with Gulf Keystone. Mr John Stafford, previously Geology and Geophysics Manager, has been appointed Vice President Operations effective 3 May 2014.



· Gulf Keystone's Annual General Meeting will be held on 17 July 2014 in Paris, France  

massiver Einbruch heute in London  

Joa, das sollte unter anderem mit der fehlgeschlagenen Shaikan-7 Bohrung zu tun haben.  

mirabaud note from gkpif.

Gulf Keystone (GKP LN) has announced a maiden IMS following its promotion to the Main Board from AIM. For the first time the company has provided top-line guidance to the market, comprising average FY14 production of between 20-25 kbopd (gross) and revenues net to GKP of US$150-180m (US$102-122m on a fully diluted basis). This compares to our current forecast of 21 kbopd and fully diluted revenue of US$124m, with our more optimistic revenue figure assuming no arrears position at year-end (which will probably prove too generous). Encouragingly, GKP confirmed today that it has received a US$6.5m gross payment for Shaikan exports, serving to reduce concerns in the market over the timeliness of export sales. The company estimate that a further US$24m is outstanding from the KRG for exports since January 2014. Current production from the Shaikan field is running at 15-16 kbopd (gross) and commissioning is complete at PF-2 with live oil flowing from SH-5 to the production facility. On the exploration side, the key news is that the SH-7 deep exploration has failed to reach its objective and will now be completed as a Jurassic producer. A new deep exploration well will be added to the drilling schedule and in any case SH-7 is expected to be a prolific producer with pay back estimated within 6 months.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the recent bond placement has bolstered the group’s cash position to US$270m (30 April) and provides the breathing space to establish a self-funded business built around a growing revenue base at Shaikan.  

Heute mal ein Artikel der Financial Times. Man beachte Todd Kozel's Schlusskommentar...

May 14, 2014 4:59 pm

Payments warning hits Gulf Keystone shares

By Michael KavanaghAuthor alerts

Shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum took another knock on Wednesday after the Kurdistan oil producer warned delays in receiving payments for exports could hold back revenues this year.

Shares fell 7 per cent as investors digested a trading update that promised a ramp up of production but also came with uncertainties over the timing and scale of payments.

Small-cap Week, May 10

While confirming the receipt of $6m this month as its first payment for exports from its Shaikan field in the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq, the London-listed company said revenues for the year were expected to be between $150m and $180m, below analysts’ estimates averaging $230m.

Even so Todd Kozel, chief executive, insists Gulf Keystone has reached an inflection point and that the persistent decline in its valuation is unwarranted.

A number of landmarks passed in the past year, while not halting its share price decline, gives the American oilman grounds for optimism.

Most crucially, last September Gulf Keystone won an legal victory in a claim brought by previous advisers seeking a third of the value of the company. A revamp of Gulf Keystone’s board with the election of outside non-executive directors, combined with recasting of its generous policy of boardroom pay, also appeared to have headed off an embarrassing shareholder revolt.

And in December, production finally allowed the trucking of oil – now running at above 16,000 barrels a day and expected to rise to 40,000 barrels of oil a day by the end the year – to Turkey for export.

“That’s exciting growth for a company that at December 1 2013 had zero production and revenue,” Mr Kozel said.

The company has also made good on its ambition to move from Aim to London’s main list.

But the run-up to its promotion was punctuated by a significant downgrade in estimates of oil resources at its Shaikan field.

An independent assessment published in March reduced the estimated oil in place at Shaikan by a third to 9.2bn barrels and also identified a range of potential extraction problems from the heavy oilfield.

That downgrade prompted shares to fall more than a third on the day, while its capital spending commitments forced it into a $250m bond issue with a coupon of 13 per cent.

Mr Kozel describes the bond issue as a clear success but one leading investor queried the terms, which he said “favours the banks and lenders at the expense of shareholders”.

Meanwhile there are mutterings on retail investor bulletin boards of forthcoming hostile proposals at its annual meeting, which Gulf Keystone confirmed on Wednesday will be held in Paris on July 17.

However, Mr Kozel seems to have his arguments lined up. Production at Shaikan is planned to rise eventually to 100,000b/d and cost savings expected from a switch from trucking to piping its oil to Turkey should provide further rewards.

“We have made the leap in the last few months from an exploration to production company – it totally changes the face and the risk profile of the company – we are up and running,” he says.

“We are a company producing 16,500 and on its way to producing 40,000 barrels of oil a day and has roughly 9.5bn barrels of oil in place, but it’s a depressed share price – there’s no doubt about it.

“I look at other companies and see the same thing and I scratch my head a little bit.”

But while Mr Kozel counsels patience on the low valuations afflicting Gulf Keystone and other E & P peers, he is braced for continued criticism.

“You don’t hear as much from investors when shares go from 5p to 400p, but you do hear from them when you go from 150 to 100p,” he add  

A range of near-term catalysts that are all significant.
Current reserves and production underpin valuation around 80p.
These catalysts could provide significant upside but not without significant risk.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCPK:GUKYF, Gulf) is high-risk high-volatility oil and gas exploration and production company with the focus of its operation in the Kurdish region of Iraq - Kurdistan. I wrote recently about what I consider to be the baseline valuation based on current production and 2P reserves (link); 80p-100p.

I'd like to demonstrate a range of near-term catalysts that could and should have a significant impact on Gulf. For balance I have attempted to provide both up and downside commentary but I am a shareholder and on balance consider the upside opportunity to outweigh the downside.

This list is by no means complete but outline the key events on my watch-list:

   Akri-Bijeel Reserve Upgrade
   Shaikan PF-2 Production
   Payment for Shaikan Exports
   SH-7 Drill Result
   SA-3 Drill Result
   Changes to Field Ownership

Catalyst: Akri-Bijeel Reserve Upgrade
Timeline: End of April 2014 (Overdue)

The Operator MOL is due to submit its Field Development Plan (FDP) to the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) for the Akri-Bijeel and Bakrman discoveries (link). MOL will be updating the current OIP and reserve numbers associated with these assets of which Gulf have a 20% working interest (12.8% diluted working interest). Gulf's own auditor current attributed 371mmboe to Bijeel with 5mmboe 2C reserves net to Gulf.

   Upside - MOL have stated that the current Gulf estimates are out of date and very conservative. Given that they intended to spud 6 development wells this year and to have production exit rate for 2014 of 10,000 bopd and more beyond I would hope these numbers to be significantly improved.

   My own working estimates are currently 2,000-2,500mmboe gross OIP. 12-25mmboe 2P and 25-50mmboe 2C reserves net working interest to Gulf. 5% to 15% upgrade in 2P reserves could be possible not mentioning further upside as development and appraisal continue.

   Downside - The FDP could be delayed, development could be dragged out, Gulf's share of costs could blow out and a cash squeeze put on the company but from a reserve upgrade perspective the downside is limited since the reserves declared currently are low.

Catalyst: Shaikan PF-2 Production
Timeline: April/May 2014

Gulf has a stated production target rate of 40,000 bopd by the end of 2014 and that requires 2 production facilities (PF1 & PF2) that are fully operational and running at name-plate capacity of 20,000 each. PF-1 is currently at 16,500 bopd. PF-2 is undergoing commissioning for quite some time but production has been telegraphed to start shortly and to ramp up in a steady fashion to take Gulf past the 40,000 bopd target rate.

   Upside - I believe that the current valuation is underpinned by current production and that the market has no faith in the stated production targets being met on time and on budget. The market has been told 40,000 by the end of the year. It is key that management get this facility online, on time and on budget. This catalyst will spawn other further catalysts; 5k, 10k, 15k, 20k bopd production milestones, further well tie ins etc. Each one would demonstrate a well-managed scale up to 40,000 bopd and would build confidence regarding future production growth. That confidence should be reflected in the valuation of the company. I believe that based on 40,000 bopd future production that the current valuation is unvalued by 30-40% but the market needs to see solid progress.

   Downside - If PF-2 is delayed then the end of year target will be pushed out and disappointment will continue. The valuation will continue to only reflect the current production and not production growth. The financial planning will all shift requiring more debt or fund raisings to develop Gulf's assets since current plans rely on some degree upon increasing revenue from production. It cannot be overstated how key PF-2 and the production growth is to Gulf's future.

Catalyst: Payment for Shaikan Exports

Timeline: unclear

Gulf started trucking crude to Turkey in December 2013 and my understanding is that 5 tankers full of Shaikan crude have departed Turkey and more are being tendered to market. Regardless of the specific shipments we do know that Gulf expects to be paid inline with the terms of its Production Sharing Agreements (PSA) by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and no confirmation of payment yet. Others have a more detailed understanding of the PSA but I haven't confirmed the payment details myself so I shall make no statements regarding timelines.

This is not a unique problem for Gulf; other operators have shipped crude via pipeline through Iraq and payments from Baghdad have and do prove problematic. Others now ship crude via a 2nd pipeline going north direct to Turkey but that crude is currently stored and not being marketed whilst the politics are worked out - no payment again. "Route to market" including timely payment is a significant impediment to operators in the region.

   Upside - The entire Kurdish oil industry would rally hard on clarification of route to international market and payment. Investors, pundits, operators and importantly the people of Iraq have waited a long time and the Iraqi elections could bring things to a head.

   Downside - The recent elections could bring things to an apparent head and the regional players could just kick this can down the road again and one of the most significant impediments to investors in this region will persist as will the market discount applied to the regional operations.

Catalyst: SH-7 Drill Result

Timeline: Q2 2014, June.

The current 2P reserves are based on only Jurassic producing horizons and SH-7's goal to drill the unexplored lower Triassic and Permian horizons. It was spudded in June 2013 and is expected to be at target depth soon.  

By Julia Payne and Ron Bousso

LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Israeli and U.S. oil refineries have joined the growing list of customers for crude from Iraqi Kurdistan, a region locked in a bitter struggle with the central government in Baghdad that says the sales are illegal.

The United States imported its first crude cargo from the region two weeks ago while at least four have gone to Israel since January, ship tracking and industry sources said, after two were shipped there last summer.

The Iraqi government has repeatedly said oil sales by-passing Baghdad are illegal and has threatened to sue any company involved in the trade, yet Kurdish crude and light condensate oil has been sold to several European buyers. Baghdad refuses to sell oil to Israel, echoing other Arab states.

Israel's Energy Ministry declined to comment, saying that it does not discuss the country's sources of oil.
 

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/23052014

Export durch die Türkei hat begonnen und durch Baghdad's Beschwerden an die International Chamber of Commerce könnte (anders als sich die Shiitische Regierung das vorstellt) die KRG noch mehr Wind unter die Flügel bekommen.  

ISIS macht sich in Kurdistan breit, erst Mosul, jetzt schon Orte nahe Kirkuk  

... zweitgrößte Stadt des Irak!

Weite Gebiete der zweitgrößten Stadt des Irak sind in der Hand dschihadistischer Kämpfer. Nach tagelangen Gefechten haben sie Mossul eingenommen. Die Regierung hat eingestanden, die Kontrolle über die gesamte Provinz Ninawa verloren zu haben.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/...r-stadt-mossul-a-974257.html  

...was werden können. Aber so sollte man erst mal abwarten, wie es sich weiter entwickelt! Der Kurs wird wohl dadurch noch heftig durchgeschüttelt!  

...bei fetten Umsätzen in den Keller! Das sieht nicht gut aus!