JDS Uniphase - ein Tech-Turnaround?
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JDSU schreibt zwar seit Jahren leichte Verluste, hat aber immer noch 1,4 Mrd. Cash auf dem Konto. Der Buchwert liegt bei 1,07 Mrd. Dollar, die Marktkapitalisierung (1,39 Mrd. Aktien zu 1,74) liegt z. Z. bei 2,42 Mrd. Dollar. Das heißt: Hinter jeder Aktie zu 1,74 Dollar stehen schon mal 0,77 Dollar allein in Cash!
Die Aktie wurde letztes Jahr von US-Börsendiensten bei mittleren Kursen um 3,50 Dollar ge-hypt und empfohlen. Dann sprach einer der Empfehlungs-Gurus - Jim Cramer, der JDSU bis dahin in seinem kostenpflichtigen Modell-Portfolio "Action Alert Plus" hatte - Anfang 2005 eine Verkaufsempfehlung aus. Grund ist u. a. ein "convertible Bond", der kursverwässernd wirken wird. Die Meute schmiss in Scharen und in Riesenstückzahlen hin (JSDU zählt zu den meistgehandelten Nasdaq-Werten). Sieht schon nach Kapitulationstief aus (Volumen-Verdreifachung!).
Ende der 90-er Jahre erlebte der JSDU im Internet-Boom einen bemerkenswerten Aufstieg - doch dann schwanden die Hoffnungen mit dem Platzen der Dotcom-Blase. Nun aber öffnen sich, wie CEO Kennedy meint (siehe unten, fett), neue Märkte: Hoher Bedarf an Glasfasertechnik entsteht in den USA u. a. durch kommerzielle Breitband-TV-Dienste wie Comcast (jene Kabelfirma, die letztes Jahr vergeblich für Disney geboten hatte).
Als zweite "Anlage" eine Empfehlung zum Kauf bei 1,97 Dollar. Das darin genannte Stopp-Loss wurde gerade unterschritten. Schön für Späteinsteiger...
Charttechnisch könnte sich bei 1,75 Dollar ein langfristiger Doppelboden mit dem bisherigen Tief vom Oktober 2002 herausbilden (siehe Chart).
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JDS Uniphase CEO: Markets It Serves Are 'Healing' (JDSU)
§
03-09-05 12:16 PM EST
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The markets that JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) serves are "healing," Chief Executive Kevin Kennedy said.
A bulk of the company's business comes from providing equipment for telecom, data communications and cable television networks, a segment he believes is recovering. One the consumer and commercial product side, there is more growth coming from the transition to high-definition television and broadband Internet access, Kennedy told investors at a Wednesday conference hosted by Deutsche Bank.
To reach profitability, JDS Uniphase will have to invest in new products, he said. The company is also working to improve efficiencies as it centralizes operations and lowers spending.
JDS Uniphase is also looking to boost revenue and margins on the consumer and commercial product lines, which will also require investments.
The decline in the average selling price for telecommunications equipment has been "less egregious," while "tension" remains in the data communications segment.
It's unclear how the consolidation in telecommunications service providers will affect JDS Uniphase. The mergers will likely bring greater profitability to the companies, making them more willing to spend on new equipment, Kennedy said. But in the near term, spending may drop as companies sort out operations and integrate after the deals close. In the long term, Kennedy sees it as a positive for capital investments.
JDS Uniphase recently traded at $2.01, up 1 cent, or 0.9%, on volume of 24.2 million shares. Average daily volume is 44 million shares.
- By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires
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JRC: Aktie im Fokus - JDS Uniphase
15.02.2005 (16:12)
US-Kürzel: JDSU
Börse: Nasdaq
WKN: 890488
Kurs: 1,97 $
Eine interessante Tradingmöglichkeit für spekulativ orientierte Trader bieten aktuell die Aktien des weltgrößten Herstellers von Glasfaserkomponenten - JDS Uniphase (US-Kürzel: JDSU). Die Aktie geriet in den letzten Wochen ordentlich unter Druck - der Aktienkurs gab seit Anfang Januar um knapp 50 % nach. Die Quartalszahlen Ende Januar und vor Allem der Ausblick des Unternehmens lagen unter den Analystenerwartungen. Dennoch bietet sich auf aktuellem Niveau risikobewussten Tradern die Möglichkeit, an einer Gegenbewegung des Aktienkurses zu partizipieren (spekulativ! - nur kleine Position...). Im Tageschart ist eine potentielle Umkehrformation zu erkennen. Der RSI-Indikator zeigt eine deutlich "überverkaufte" Marktsituation. Zudem steht der MACD-Trendfolgeindikator kurz davor ein Kaufsignal zu generieren. Wir empfehlen risikobewussten Tradern die Aktie auf aktuellem Niveau zum Kauf mit einem engen Stopp bei 1,77 $. Erstes Kursziel liegt bei 2,40 $ (Gap-Closing - siehe Chart).
Quelle: JRC Capital Management Consultancy & Research GmbH
Weiterhin interessant ist, dass Google einige der in der Dotcom-Hysterie verlegten, aber seitdem brachliegenden Glasfaserleitungen ("dark fiber") zum Ausbau eines eigenen Netzwerkes aufkaufen will. Zu dessen Betrieb wird Glaserfaser-Elektronik von JDSU (u. a.) benötigt.
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FORBES
JDS Uniphase: Dark-Fiber Dark Horse
George Putnam, The Turnaround Letter, 02.21.05, 11:45 AM ET
JDS Uniphase is a leading producer of optical components used in fiber-optic communications networks and a number of other areas. It is remembered as one of many meteoric technology stocks of the late 1990s. As telecommunications companies stumbled over each other to "build out" their networks, JDS' revenue grew dramatically, and investors stumbled over each other to get into the stock, pushing it above $150 per share in early 2000.
Unfortunately, when the telecom bubble burst, JDS Uniphase's (nasdaq: JDSU - news - people ) revenue and stock price collapsed almost as quickly as they had risen. Revenue went from $3.2 billion in fiscal 2001 (ended June 30) to $636 million in fiscal 2004. The stock price collapsed to below $2 in late 2002, and it has bounced around in the low-to-mid-single digits ever since.
Although "meteoric" may be an apt description of the company's recent history, the metaphor does not apply going forward. JDS is not going to burn out or crash; rather, it is going to survive and very likely prosper.
One reason that JDS is going to survive is that it had the good sense to raise lots of cash back in the heady days of the tech/telecom bubble. Today, even after several years of tough times, the company has about $1.4 billion in cash. Moreover, while the company has not yet returned to profitability, it has cut its costs to the point where it is currently using up very little of that cash hoard.
Another reason that JDS will survive--and the reason that it is likely to prosper eventually--is that it is the market leader in several different technologies that have promising futures. The company is best known for its components that are used in fiber-optic telecommunications networks, and despite all the recent gloom, even that business has good potential.
Many of the fiber-optic networks built during the telecom boom have never been used or even fully equipped for use -- this fiber is known in the industry as "dark" fiber. Now, however, a number of potential users are becoming interested in this dark fiber. For example, it was recently reported that Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) is acquiring dark fiber and plans to build its own network. Whenever people want to "light" any dark fiber, chances are they will come to JDS for the equipment to do so.
Moreover, JDS is not just waiting around for people to light up dark fiber. Utilizing its skill with lasers and other optical technologies, the company has diversified into a number of promising markets, including high-definition TV, encryption, counterfeit detection and laser guidance systems. In the latest quarter, more than 40% of revenue came from outside the communications sector. JDS is maintaining a high level of research and development spending--nearly $100 million annually--to stay at the technology forefront in all of its markets.
So many investors have been burned by JDS in the past that the stock is not likely to move up until the company's turnaround becomes obvious. But when the company does begin to show profits again, patient investors who buy the stock now will be very nicely rewarded. We recommend buying JDS Uniphase up to $4.50.
By Scott Moritz
Senior Writer
3/21/2005 4:45 PM EST
Seeking to widen its focus on lasers, JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq) says it will buy closely held Lightwave Electronics for $65 million in cash.
Mountain View, Calif.-based Lightwave makes so-called solid-state lasers used by equipment makers in biotech for DNA sequencing, and by tech shops for laser printers and semiconductor inspection.
The move could help JDS Uniphase supply consumer electronics and chipmakers and extend its interest in optical component technology outside the slumping telecommunications market.
"This acquisition reinforces our commitment to the OEM laser business and is in line with our strategy to invest in profitable, growing markets," says JDS laser chief Hoss Christensen, in a press release Monday. "Lightwave brings outstanding technical capabilities, complementary product lines, and a track record of profitability and strong execution -- they will be a great addition to the JDS Uniphase team."
JDS shares were unchanged at $1.70 in postclose trading.
MfG bauwi
PS: buy on 1,20 Oiro
Hab mich für Lucent entschieden. Lucent erzielt im Gegensatz zu JDSU Gewinne (KGV: 13) und wird im Konkurrenzkampf mit Nortel, JDSU, und Ciena am ehesten von allen überleben.
Vor allem gilt Lucent als Übernahme-Kandidat: Mögliche Käufer sind Cisco oder Alcatel. Dabei dürften mindestens 3,50 bis 4 Dollar pro Lucent-Aktie bezahlt werden. Lucent erreichte gestern bei 2,50 Dollar ein 52-Wochen-Tief (KK: 2,53 Dollar).
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FORBES
Lucent Seen As Attractive Buyout Prospect
03.28.05, 4:05 PM ET
Prudential Equity Group downgraded Lucent Technologies (nyse: LU - news - people ) to "neutral weight" from "overweight" and said it expects sluggish growth in the wake of several major telecom mergers. "We continue to expect Lucent to deliver 2005 sales growth near the mid-single digit range, in line with carrier capital expenditures growth, but believe the cyclical recovery for the group has been completed and spending may slow as carriers consolidate," said Prudential. "Some of the carrier M&A deals won't close in 2005, but we may still see capital expenditures slow ahead of these closings."
The research firm also lowered its price target to $3.50 from $4 and trimmed its 2005 earnings-per-share estimate to 17 cent from 19 cents. The research firm said that while a possible buyout of Lucent would attract a price of more than $4 per share, the timing of such an event is hard to predict. "We have looked at several possible combinations involving Lucent, including partnerships with Alcatel (nyse: ALA - news - people ), Nortel (nyse: NT - news - people ) and Cisco (nasdaq: CSCO - news - people ). While each combination would have its own benefits and obstacles, we think Lucent would be an attractive partner for each of these companies based on its established market position, technology portfolio and geographic exposure," it said. "We are leaving the door open to consolidation acting as a positive catalyst to the stock as we would not be surprised to see Lucent acquired for $3.50 to $4.00 or more, but it is difficult to predict when consolidation may take place."
Der Tech-Sektor ist momentan größtenteils ziemlich angeschlagen. Schon verblüffend, wie dagegen bestimmte deutsche Nebenwerte aus dem M- und S-Dax zielstrebig nach Norden laufen .....und laufen .....und laufen! (Warum: Gewinne sprudeln)
MfG bauwi
Das ist das Allzeittief seit 10 Jahren.
Cu
Röckefäller
For the current quarter, JDS expects sales of $165 million. Analysts' consensus estimates had called for a top-line total of $168 million, according to Reuters Research.
The optical parts maker has been squeezed by the collapse of the telecom network construction business over the past five years. Last week, the company said it would fire 700 people and shut down several North American production facilities.
Bald ist Nachkaufen angesagt.
Cu
Röckefäller
trading after the company said late Monday it will buy privately held Acterna
Inc. for $760 million.
In acquiring Acterna, a fast-growing developer of products used to test and
manage optical networking gear, JDS has sent the signal that its cost-cutting
phase is largely over and that the company is now focused on increasing sales,
analysts say.
A onetime high-flyer during the late 1990s Internet boom, JDS has struggled in
recent years to cut debt and curb costs amid a drastic decline in revenue. Sales
plunged to $636 million in fiscal 2004 from $3.2 billion in fiscal 2001 in the
wake of an industry glut.
While Acterna never reached the dizzying heights of JDS, its post-bubble plunge
was just as painful. The company lost its Nasdaq listing in early 2003, filed
for bankruptcy protection in May of that year and emerged five months later as a
privately held business.
In the past year and a half, the Germantown, Md., company has experienced a
resurgence of sorts. The company makes test equipment for large communications
providers and cable TV network vendors. In the 12 months ending in March 2005,
Acterna had $440 million in sales with gross margins above 50%, based on
preliminary figures.
JDS said the acquired assets will immediately add to earnings once the deal is
completed, most likely by the end of September. Under the agreement, JDS will
pay $450 million in cash and $310 million in stock.
On Tuesday, JDS stock climbed 9 cents to $1.64 The brokerage firm Needham & Co.
upgraded JDS to a buy from hold, saying "there remains much work to do and there
could be bumps in the road, but we think the stock has turned the corner."
JDS, based in San Jose, Calif., said the deal will also accelerate its goal of
becoming profitable. The combined companies would have annual sales exceeding $1
billion.
In the quarter ended March 31, JDS reported a loss of $38.6 million on $166.3
million in sales. Revenue has hovered below $200 million for 10 straight
quarters.
Last month, JDS said it would close two U.S. manufacturing plants, ship those
operations to China and cut more than 700 jobs to reduce expenses.