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Neuester Beitrag: 11.06.04 13:59
Eröffnet am: 11.06.04 08:30 von: Stox Dude Anzahl Beiträge: 7
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20520 Postings, 6900 Tage Stox DudeIndikatoren

 
  
    #1
11.06.04 08:30

THRUST/TREND MECHANICAL MODEL
-----------------------------
              Signal Days    Index    06/10   Points  Percent
Index Signal     Date Elap   @Start    Close      P/L      P/L
----- ------ -------- ----  -------  -------  -------  -------
SPX      BUY 06/07/04    3  1140.53  1136.47    -4.06    -0.4%
Dow      BUY 06/08/04    2 10432.52 10410.10   -22.42    -0.2%
NDX      BUY 06/01/04    9  1468.54  1481.27   +12.73    +0.9%

INTERMEDIATE-TERM INDICATORS         Dow     S&P 500         NDX
-----------------------------   --------    --------    --------
PMO Crossover Signal (Price):    BUY  14     BUY  15     BUY  16
ITBM Crossover (Breadth)....:    BUY  16     BUY  17     BUY  20
ITVM Crossover (Volume).....:    BUY  17     BUY  20     BUY  20
Price Momentum Model Signal.:    BUY 415     BUY 415     BUY  66
% Stocks Above 200-DMA......:        93%         73%         57%
IT Seasonality..............:    Unfavorable until 10/28/04

IT EARLY WARNING INDICATORS          Dow     S&P 500         NDX
-----------------------------   --------    --------    --------
PMO Rising/Falling (Price)..:    BUY  16     BUY  20     BUY  20
ITBM Rising/Fall (Breadth)..:    BUY  20     BUY  23     BUY   0
ITVM Rising/Fall (Volume)...:    BUY  21     BUY  23     BUY  23

SHORT-TERM INDICATORS                Dow     S&P 500         NDX
-----------------------------   --------    --------    --------
PMO Rising/Falling (Price)..:    BUY  16     BUY  20     BUY  20
STO-Breadth Rising/Falling..:    BUY   0     BUY   0     BUY   0
STO-Volume Rising/Falling...:    BUY   0     BUY   0     BUY   0
CVI (Climactic Vol Ind).....:    BUY   0     BUY   0     BUY   0
STVO (ST Volume Osc)........:    BUY   0     BUY   0     BUY   0
% Stocks Above 20-DMA.......:        93%         77%         69%
ST Seasonality..............:   Favorable from 5/27 to 6/4



SENTIMENT INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Fearless Forecasters........:    23% Bulls   36% Bears  (6/4)
AAII Investor...............:    55% Bulls   16% Bears  (6/9)
Investors Intelligence......:    50% Bulls   20% Bears  (6/4)
Short Interest Ratio(May 15):    4.7 (5.0 or greater is bullish.)
Bollinger PVI (OEX).........:   1.02 (2.0 or greater is BUY Signal)
Bollinger PVI (CBOE)........:   1.04 (2.0 or greater is BUY Signal)
Gold (CEF Prem/Discount)....:   +14.9%  Premium to NAV - Sentiment Bullish

MISCELLANEOUS INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Adv Vol/Decl Vol............:    1.5 (9.0 or greater is very bullish)
10 DMA of Adv/Declines......:    1.17 (2.0 or greater is very bullish)
S&P 5-Day Price Momentum....:    +1.8% (+7.5% or greater is very bullish)
Weeks of Member Net Selling.:    1 Wks; Cum Total: -71,187,000 shrs (5/21)
1-Day Arms Index............:    0.84 (2.0 or greater is ST bullish)
10-DMA Arms Index...........:    0.96 (1.5 or greater is IT bullish)
BREADTH INDICATOR ANALYSIS      NYSE       DOW  NYSE(RA)   S&P 500      
--------------------------- --------  --------  --------  --------  
McClellan Oscillator......:   +99.09    +80.85    +29.30    +43.00  
Net Change..............:      +3.50    +10.23     +1.18    +12.85    
Summation Index...........: +1507.09    -13.43   +166.26   +187.26    
A-D Req'd for N/C McOsi.:       +338       ...      +338       ...      
A-D Req'd for McOsi = 0.:      -1644       ...     -1644       ...      
IT Breadth Momentum Osc...:      ...    +96.39    +95.83    +98.57    
Net Change..............:        ...    +15.19     +0.64     +4.98    
A-D Req'd for Top/Bottom:        ...       ...       +41       ...      
A-D Req'd for ITBM = 0..:        ...       ...    -20765       ...      

MARKET INDEXES RANKED BY STRENGTH
                   |-RankChg-| |---- % Price Change ----|  Hot/Cold
               PMO    5    15      On     5    15           Group &
Index          Rank  Day   Day   06/10   Day   Day    YTD   Blinkers
-------------- ---- ----  ----  ------ ----- ----- ------ |---------|
Internet Index    1   +1   +17   +0.8%   +2%   +8%    +9%  1 ++ ++ +
Dow Trans         2   +1    +6   -0.1%   +2%   +7%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
Defense Index     3   +2    +8   +0.6%   +3%   +8%    +4%  1 ++ ++ +
BlueChipTop 10    4   +2   +22   +0.2%   +2%   +6%    +2%  1 ++ ++ +
NASDAQ 100        5   +3   +10   +0.8%   +2%   +6%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
Natural Gas In    6   -5    -3   +2.0%   +2%   +4%    +7%  2 ++ ++ -
Real Estate iS    7  +10   +39   -0.5%    0%   +8%     0%  1 ++ ++ +
Health Payer      8   +2    +4   -0.3%    0%   +4%    +9%  1 ++ ++ +
Retail Holders    9   +5   +12   +0.3%   +1%   +6%    +4%  1 ++ ++ +
Oil Index        10   -6    -8   +1.1%   +1%   +3%    +9%  2 ++ ++ -
Consumer Non-C   11   -4    -5   -0.2%   +1%   +4%    +9%  2 ++ ++ -
Comp/Tech Indx   12  +11    +8   +0.7%   +4%   +6%    -3%  1 ++ ++ +
Consumer Index   13   -2    -6   +0.2%   +1%   +4%    +5%  2 ++ ++ -
SP SmCap 600     14   +4   +14   +0.1%   +2%   +6%    +5%  1 ++ ++ +
Semiconductor    15   +5   +26   +0.6%   +3%   +4%    -6%  1 ++ ++ +
Services Index   16   +5    -6   +0.3%   +2%   +4%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
NASDAQ Comp      17   +9   +10   +0.5%   +2%   +5%     0%  1 ++ ++ +
Chemical DJUS    18   +9    +5   +0.2%   +3%   +6%    -2%  1 ++ ++ +
S&P 500          19    0    -6   +0.5%   +2%   +4%    +2%  1 ++ ++
Technology Ind   20   +2    +5   +0.4%   +2%   +5%    +2%  1 ++ ++ +
Pharmaceutical   21   -8   -17   -0.1%    0%   +2%     0%  2 ++ ++ -
Financial iShr   22   +6   +14   -0.3%   +1%   +5%    +2%  1 ++ ++ +
S&P Midcap 400   23   +2    +9   +0.3%   +1%   +5%    +3%  1 ++ ++ +
Healthcare iSh   24  -12   -19   -0.3%    0%   +2%    +4%  3 +- -+ -
Cyclical Index   25   +8    +5   +0.7%   +3%   +6%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
Wilshire 5000    26   -2   -10   +0.4%   +2%   +4%    +2%  2 ++ ++ -
Comp Hardware    27   +9   +17   +0.9%   +3%   +7%     0%  1 ++ ++ +
S&P 100          28   +2   -14   +0.5%   +2%   +4%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
Banking Index    29    0    +8   +0.5%   +1%   +5%     0%  1 ++ ++
NYSE Comp        30   +1    -6   +0.5%   +2%   +4%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
Val Line-A       31   +1    +4   +0.3%   +2%   +5%    +4%  1 ++ ++ +
Dow Ind          32   +2   -15   +0.4%   +2%   +5%     0%  1 ++ ++ +
Airline Index    33   +7   +14   -4.0%    0%   +6%   -14%  3 +- -+ +
Dow Util         34  -18   -15   +0.7%    0%   +3%    +2%  2 ++ ++ -
Russ 2000        35    0    +4   +0.1%   +1%   +5%    +2%  1 ++ ++ +
Housing Index    36   +2    +7   +0.3%   +1%   +7%    +1%  1 ++ ++ +
Comp Software    37   +2   -15   +0.6%   +3%   +5%    -1%  2 ++ +- +
CRB Index        38  -29   -29   -0.1%   -1%   -1%    +6%  6 -- -- -
US Dollar        39  -24   -38   -0.6%    0%   -2%    +3%  6 -- -- -
Box Maker Indx   40   +4    +2   +0.7%   +4%   +7%    -1%  2 ++ +- +
AMEX             41    0    -8   +0.3%    0%   +2%    +2%  2 ++ +-
NY Gold          42   -5    -2   +0.3%   -1%   +1%    -7%  3 +- -- -
Telecom Index    43   +3    -9   +0.3%   +2%   +2%    +5%  2 ++ +- +
30-Year Bond     44   -2    -6   +0.1%   -1%    0%    -2%  3 +- +- -
Oil Service In   45    0   -16   +1.2%   +2%   +3%    +6%  2 ++ +-
Gold Index XAU   46   +1    +3   +1.0%   -2%   -1%   -23%  3 +- -- +
Brokerage Indx   47   +1    -2   -0.7%   +1%   +1%    -4%  3 +- +- +
Biotech Index    48   -5   -17   +0.1%   -4%   -1%     0%  6 -- -- -
Networking Ind   49    0    -1   +0.4%   +3%   +5%    -3%  2 ++ +-
Silver           50    0     0   +1.8%    0%   -3%    -4%  3 +- +-


|-- PMO Crossover Model ---|-- Price Momentum Model --|
                    |  PMO        High   Today |  PMM         High   Today|
Name             Flag| Sgnl Day     P/L     P/L | Sgnl Days     P/L     P/L|
--------------- -----| ---- --- ------- ------- | ---- ---- ------- -------|
Dow Indust              BUY  14   +2.2%   +2.0%    BUY  415  +26.5%  +22.7%
S&P 500                 BUY  15   +2.4%   +1.9%    BUY  415  +27.0%  +24.7%
S&P 100                 BUY  15   +2.6%   +2.3%    BUY  415  +23.8%  +19.8%
NYSE Comp               BUY  15   +2.7%   +1.9%    BUY  415  +32.9%  +28.5%
NASDAQ          Warn!   BUY  16   +3.0%   +1.8%   SELL   31   +1.0%   -5.5%
NASDAQ 100 Ind          BUY  16   +3.3%   +2.3%    BUY   66    0.0%   -1.8%
Russ 2000       Warn!   BUY  16   +2.4%   +0.7%   SELL   31   +0.5%   -5.8%
Wilshire 5000           BUY  15   +2.3%   +1.6%    BUY  415  +31.1%  +28.0%
Val Line-A              BUY  15   +2.3%   +1.2%    BUY  420  +59.7%  +53.0%
S&P Midcap 400          BUY  15   +2.3%   +1.2%    BUY  414  +41.5%  +36.6%
SP SmCap 600            BUY  16   +2.2%   +1.0%    BUY  414  +48.6%  +43.4%
Amer Exch               BUY  15   +1.4%   +0.5%    BUY  415  +50.0%  +41.0%
152 BlueChipTo          BUY  17   +6.8%   +5.0%    BUY    3   +0.2%   -1.6%
Airline Index   Warn!   BUY  17   +5.7%   -0.1%   SELL   41   +8.1%   -0.2%
Banking Index   Warn!   BUY  20   +3.8%   +3.2%   SELL   31    0.0%   -6.6%
Biotech Index          SELL   1    0.0%   -0.1%   SELL   22   +1.1%   +1.0%
Box Maker Indx  Warn!   BUY  15   +3.3%   +3.0%   SELL   80   +5.1%   -1.9%
Brokerage Indx  Warn!   BUY  16   +2.5%   -0.7%   SELL   35   +3.7%   +0.5%
Chemical DJUS           BUY  15   +2.5%   +2.2%    BUY  447  +22.8%  +19.2%
Comp Hardware   Warn!   BUY  20   +7.0%   +6.4%   SELL   44   +6.0%   -2.3%
Comp Software   Warn!   BUY  14   +2.7%   +1.3%   SELL   24    0.0%   -5.5%
Comp/Tech Indx  Warn!   BUY  17   +5.2%   +4.7%   SELL   91   +2.5%   -4.3%
Consumer Index          BUY  13   +2.0%   +1.6%    BUY  405  +16.8%  +16.4%
Consumer Non-C          BUY   9   +1.2%   +0.8%    BUY  395  +29.0%  +28.1%
Cyclical Index          BUY  15   +3.2%   +2.7%    BUY  414  +55.7%  +49.9%
Defense Index           BUY  16   +4.3%   +4.0%    BUY  392  +37.5%  +37.1%
Financial iShr  Warn!   BUY  20   +4.4%   +3.3%   SELL   34   +1.7%   -4.8%
Gold Index XAU  Warn!   BUY  23   +9.1%   +1.1%   SELL   57  +16.9%  +10.7%
Health Payer            BUY  14   +4.0%   +1.6%    BUY  447  +88.6%  +77.3%
Healthcare iSh          BUY   9   +1.1%   -0.6%    BUY  447  +20.9%  +17.9%
Housing Index           BUY  16   +3.1%   +0.0%    BUY    3    0.0%   -2.9%
Internet Index          BUY  16   +4.6%   +3.2%    BUY  450  +78.8%  +73.4%
Natural Gas In          BUY  15   +0.4%   +0.4%    BUY  441  +39.6%  +39.0%
Networking Ind          BUY  16   +5.0%   +3.0%    BUY    3   +0.2%   -1.7%
Oil Index               BUY   8   +0.9%   +0.0%    BUY  395  +38.3%  +35.1%
Oil Service In  Warn!   BUY   3   +0.7%   +0.7%   SELL   31    0.0%   -3.8%
Pharmaceutical  Warn!   BUY   8   +1.6%   +0.5%   SELL   80   +0.6%   -5.5%
Real Estate iS          BUY  23   +6.8%   +5.6%    BUY   13   +1.0%   -0.1%
Retail Holders          BUY  16   +3.7%   +2.9%    BUY  422  +26.6%  +23.8%
Semiconductor           BUY  21   +7.8%   +4.9%    BUY   13   +0.1%   -2.6%
Services Index          BUY  14   +2.4%   +1.6%    BUY  401  +26.4%  +23.5%
Technology Ind  Warn!   BUY  16   +3.3%   +1.6%   SELL   24    0.0%   -5.8%
Telecom Index           BUY  14   +1.1%   +0.6%    BUY  405  +43.5%  +32.0%
Dow Trans               BUY  15   +4.5%   +2.9%    BUY    3   +1.1%   -0.5%
Dow Util                BUY  16   +1.0%   -0.3%    BUY  413  +26.8%  +22.1%
Gold            Warn!   BUY  17   +2.5%   +0.0%   SELL   34   +1.1%   -1.9%
Silver                  BUY  20   +5.8%   -2.1%    BUY   14    0.0%   -7.4%
CRB Index       Warn!  SELL   1   +0.1%   +0.1%    BUY  822  +40.2%  +32.7%
30-Year Bond    Warn!   BUY  21   +1.7%   -0.6%   SELL   29   +0.6%   -0.5%
Dollar Index           SELL  22   +2.7%   +1.6%   SELL  721  +21.8%  +18.0%



Markets sind immer noch im Uptrend !

 

128 Postings, 6355 Tage KimmyDu bist ja ein ganz Schlauer!

 
  
    #2
1
11.06.04 11:12
Einige hier wissen das schon seit einem Jahr *LOL*  

20520 Postings, 6900 Tage Stox DudeKimmy: Das Du keine Ahnung hast

 
  
    #3
11.06.04 12:28
sehe ich hier .....

8. *HAHAHA*   Kimmy   05.02.04 19:56  
Bei 4020 habe ich mir ein paar schöne Wave Calls auf den DAX gekauft. Die bleiben bis 4600 im Depot. Ich wollte mir erst Calls auf Allianz und Münchner Rück zulegen, aber das wäre dann doch etwas gemein *fg*  

aus Thread ....
http://www.ariva.de/board/...86-870000&ISPSG=1866685&ISPSS=1086876501

Wir fielen auf 3698 DAX, stiegen kurz wieder an, um dann wieder auf 3709 zu fallen !
Trend Trader haben profitiert, eingefleischte Super Bullen und permanente Besserwisser
wie Du leider nicht ;)






Stox Dude

 

5854 Postings, 5652 Tage anjafwow Stox

 
  
    #4
11.06.04 12:33
das sind aber ne Menge Indikatoren.
Behältst du die alle im Auge?  

13451 Postings, 6959 Tage daxbunny:-) o. T.

 
  
    #5
11.06.04 12:34

20520 Postings, 6900 Tage Stox Dudeich vergass Kimmy

 
  
    #6
11.06.04 12:51
Ich wollte mir erst Calls auf Allianz und Münchner Rück zulegen, aber das wäre dann doch etwas gemein *fg*

Wieso gemein Kimmy ?
Allianz fiel vom 01 Februar, also Dein ach so geniales posting, von knapp ueber
100 Euro auf 80 Euro. Wo denkst Du waere Dein genial gemeiner Call heute?


Stox Dude

 

7979 Postings, 5887 Tage hotte39Hallo Kimmy, sei bitte so gut ...

 
  
    #7
11.06.04 13:59
und packe Deine Giftpfeile wieder in den Köcher. Meine Wenigkeit und viele andere Leser bei Ariva (da bin ich mir ganz sicher!!) sind froh, dass Stox hier wieder postet.

Vielen Dank im Voraus.

Gruß Hotte  

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