Energy Wert aus China mit heißem Chart

Coal Stocks Flying; N/T Coal Price To Stay High

Shenhua (1088.HK) +9.3% at HK$51,

Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK) +9.3% at HK$16.86,
China Coal (1898.HK) +5.8% at HK$26.55 despite recent sharp gains,

as near-term coal prices tipped to stay high, on expected prolonged tight coal market, high oil price. D

BS lifts average domestic/export coal price growth (thermal/coking) assumption to 5% growth for both FY08 and FY09, up from previous 2% and flat growth, respectively. "We believe near-term supply constraint will continue to underscore the spot coal market in 4Q07."

Also ups earnings forecast by 5-6% for both Shenhua (1088.HK) and Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK) for FY08-09. Keeps Fully Valued on Shenhua given its current valuation, which 33X PER for 2008, highest among regional peers; keeps Hold on Yanzhou, with 13% upside to target price of HK$17.50.(SUT)  

 

China Sept coal prices at new high, exports down - regulator

The price of coal used in power generation reached a new high in key Chinese markets in September after a decline in the country's delivery capacity, the regulatory National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said.

China's coal exports also fell over the month, reaching 4.736 mln tons, down 3.9 pct from the same period last year.

The regulator said that last month, new price records were set in key regions like the port of Qinhuangdao in northern Hebei province and southern China's Guangdong province, the country's biggest power consumer.

The NDRC cited growing demand, as well as the impact of typhoons on China's shipment capacity, as the reasons for the continuing rise in prices.

Transportation costs rose over the period, with the cost of shipping power coal from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai and Ningbo up 5-10 yuan.

The cost of delivering coal to Guangzhou on the southeast coast increased by 10-15 yuan to reach about 135-145 yuan per ton, the NDRC said.

Even when transportation costs are excluded, the ex-mine price of coal in key producing regions still rose by around 10-15 yuan, it said.

At the end of September, the price of 5,500-kcal/kg power coal in Qinhuangdao climbed to a new record of 478-483 yuan per ton, and the prices of almost all types of coal firmed by about 10 yuan compared to August, the NDRC said.

The wholesale prices in Shanghai and Ningbo also reached new highs, with 5,500 kcal/kg coal rising by 10-15 yuan since the end of August to 590-600 yuan per ton. The wholesale price in Guangzhou increased by about 25-35 yuan to 640-650 yuan per ton.

Prices have risen by about 30-40 yuan per ton since May, the regulator estimated.

China produced 202.86 mln tons of coal in September, up 8.2 pct year-on-year. An average of 51,087 vehicles per day were delivering coal, up 6.8 pct compared to September 2006. However, shipments by road and rail had fallen compared to June and July.

Meanwhile, China's major ports handled 39.685 mln tons of coal over the course of the month, up 15.3 pct compared with September 2006.

Transportation bottlenecks and increasing shipment costs have led analysts to predict that China will soon become a net coal importer, with many consumers in southern provinces like Guangdong and Fujian finding it more convenient to source coal from suppliers in Vietnam and Indonesia.

Analysts have also said that planned expansions at large-scale collieries might not be able to keep up with the rise in demand, especially as the national campaign to close small and dangerous mines continues.

China was a net importer of coal in the first nine months of the year, with exports falling by more than 20 pct to 38.01 mln tons, and imports rising 47.6 pct to 38.61 mln tons, the General Administration of Customs said last week.  

wie weit die Preise für Kohle plus Fracht steigen dürfen, ohne dass die Nachfrage
absinkt. Wer sind denn die Wettbewerber ?

Grüße
Kleinerbroker  

China Coal Energy Co Ltd is expected to report tomorrow a net profit of 5.8 bln yuan for 2007, up 83 pct year-on-year on the back of higher coal prices and increased production, UBS said.

Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 0.49 yuan.

"We noted that 2007 coal/coke/equipment production of 83.3 mln tons, 3.37 mln tons and 202,000 tons is higher than our forecast of 78.8 mln tons, 2.6 mln tons and 178,000 tons," it said.

UBS added that production costs for China Coal are unlikely to rise as much as that of its rivals as it is benefiting from rising output in low cost mining areas.

It forecast China Coal's unit production cost declined by 6 pct year-on-year for 2007.

China Coal also gave guidance that the 2008 domestic contract price is 10 pct higher than the end-2007 level, implying upside potential to the UBS forecast.

"Regional contract thermal coal price negotiations are ongoing and the market expects an increase of 102 pct year-on-year to 110 usd per ton in 2008...our forecast is 136 pct on-year to 130 usd per ton," UBS said.

It maintained its "buy" rating on China Coal as well as its target price of 27.15 hkd.

At 3.35 pm, China Coal was down 0.42 hkd or 2.68 pct at 15.26