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Forsyth : Eestor Corp.
Hier eröffne ich einen Thread, der sich mit dem Wert Eestor beschäftigen soll. Eestor Corp ist unter der Zenn hervorgegangen, nachdem sie seit 2009 mehrere Rückschläge erleiden mussten. Eestor Corp. ist ein kanadisches börsennotiertes Unternehmen (früher ZENN), welches gegenwärtig 71,3 % an dem privat geführten Eestor Inc. in Austin/Texas hält. Eestor an der kanadischen TSX Venture Exchange handelbar.
Die Firma versucht nun seit der Neuausrichtung 2015 im Kondensatormarkt Fuß zu fassen, um Geld zu verdienen und es gibt einige interessante Dinge, von denen man ausgehen kann, dass sie es auch schaffen wird. Im August 2015 versuchte man den gegenwärtigen Stand der Forschung nach erheblichen Zweifel der Investoren an der Überlebensfähigkeit und die Herstellung eines revolutionären Energiespeicher von Eestor Inc. durch die Firma Intertek testieren zu lassen. Intertek gehört zu den Großen bei der Zertifizierung und Prüfung von Produkten
Anhand dieses Intertektests (IT3)
wurde der Herausgeber des Paumenok Report Denis Zogbi anhand des Intertekreports gebeten, die Marktchancen für den gegenwärtigen Stand der Überlebensfähigkeit und Entwicklungen der Eestor Inc. zu prüfen.
Paumanok, Inc. ist der weltweit größte Anbieter von Marktforschung und Beratungsdienstleistungen für die passiven elektronischen Komponenten Industrie. Denis Zogbi ist deren Gründer und gab aufgrund der IT 3 folgende Veröffentlichung heraus:
Hier wird hervorgehoben, dass Eestor im Besitz einer disprutiven Technologien im Bereich der Hochvolt- und Aluminiumkondensatoren zu sein scheint. Auch in einem Interview bekräftigte D.Zogbi seine Einschätzung:
Hier die Vorteile der Eestortechnologie in einem Bild bei der AGM (Aktionärsversammlung)2016
Hier wird, neben den Vorteilen der Eestorkondensatoren, vor allem die erheblich günstigere Kostenstruktur bei der Herstellung und der Verwendung der verwendeten Materialien hervorgehoben. Hierzu eine interessante Analyse eines privaten Investors:
Hier ist erkennbar, welches Potential die Firma haben kann. Auch wird in der Analyse erklärt, dass man den revolutionären Energiespeicher (Essu)noch nicht vom Tisch genommen hat. Hier versucht man nun mit neuen hochpolaren Polymeren, das Problem des Energiespeichers zu lösen. Gegenwärtig will man seine Technologie über Lizenzen zu vermarkten und hat aus diesem Grund über private Placements Geld eingesammelt. Interessant hierbei ist eine neu eingestellte Personalie Michael Michalyshyn, der umfangreiche Erfahrungen bei der Lizenzierung von Technologien hat
Herr Michael Michalyshyn beteiligte sich übrigens auch an einem der privaten placements Gegenwärtig erwartet man den Intertekreport 4 und die Lizenzierung der Hochvoltkondensatoren. Die Kursentwicklung ist in letzter Zeit sehr interessant. Die Aktienanzahl liegt bei gegenwärtig ca. 98.000.000 und soll bei der Ausübung der Optionen/Warrant voll verwässert bei 140-150.000.000 liegen. Erste Einnahmen werden durch die Lizenzeinnahmen erwartet.
http://eestorcorp.com/ http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.esu/eestor-c… http://eestorcorp.com/assets/h-m-xrd-sem-reports-08-15-14---… http://eestorcorp.com/assets/eestor-zogbi-report.pdf http://bloombergtv.ca/2016-08-16/news/industries/tech-and-he…
Aus meiner Sicht eine sehr interessante Firma, selbst wenn sie nur auf dem Hochvoltkondensatormarkt mit ihrer disprutiven Technologie Fuß fassen werden. Dieser Markt alleine wird auf 2,8 Mrd. Dollar, Tendenz weiter steigend, geschätzt. Aber aus meiner Sicht wird sich die Firma über Lizenzen ein großes Stück Kuchen herausschneiden. Dazu noch die Erwartungen, dass es Eestor schaffen könnte, auf dem Gesamtkondensatormarkt ein riesiges Stück Kuchen herauszuschneiden. Der Gesamtkondensatormarkt wird auf 18-20 Mrd. Dollar weltweit geschätzt. Glaubt man dem Kondensatorexperten Zogbi wird es Eestor schaffen sich ein dickes Stück im 6 Mrd. der Aluminium/Tantal/und HV Kondensatormarkt mit seiner einzigartigen Kosten- und Herstellungsstruktur heraus zu schneiden . Eestor Kondensatoren sollen dabei leistungsfähiger, stabiler, preiswerter und langlebiger sein. Decken hierbei ein hohes Spektrum ab, sind wärmeunemfindlich, stoßfest. Auch nicht uninteressant die Neuauflage der Forschung an ihrem revolutionären Energiespeicher mit neuen hochpolaren Polymeren. Ich habe meine Recherchen nach besten Wissen und Gewissen gemacht und bin selber hier mit einer Aktienanzahl investiert. Interessante Diskussionen anderer Anleger finden in den englischsprachigen Boards
https://eestor.slack.com/messages/general/details/ Chat mit 200 Investoren und
Der spekulative Wert ist in Deutschland zumeist unbekannt, was ihn aus meiner Sicht interessant macht. Im wallstreetonline Board wird bzw. wurde der Wert unter Zenn diskutiert. Hier auch klar erkennbar, dass es bereits viele Rückschläge gab, die mit einer Neuauflage, nun unter dem Namen Eestor Corp erfolgte. Ob es die Neuauflage besser machen wird, ist reine Spekulation. Aber es gibt viele Hinweise und Indizien, dass es so sein wird.
Derzeitiger Kurs in Kanada 0,66 CAD Deutschland: 0,44 Euro
Eestor Corp. | wallstreet-online.de - Vollständige Diskussion unter:
Forsyth : First Valuation
A first EEStor Valuation
Here's a first rough valuation of EEStor as can be guessed if the plans of the direction end up materializing.
What makes EEStor business interesting since last August, is that it has a two layers business proposition akin to that of ProMetic, that is:
One low risk / high reward high-voltage capacitor opportunity, only limited by financial constraint, which is the reason we *invest* in ESU.
One higher risk / very high reward energy storage opportunity, which represents a Giga Bonus over the base investment proposition.
The high voltage capacitor opportunity
According to the Dennis Zogbi report (p.15-16), EEStor high-voltage capacitor price-disruptive techno is in position to takeover the 2.8B$ high voltage segment presently dominated by costly aluminum electrolytic capacitor.
In a related interview, Dennis Zogbi explains in details how, like all commodity business, the high-voltage capacitor industry, which technology has barely changed in the last 80 years, is all about cost. The incumbant players fight for every fraction of percent point in cost saving, and it results in mediocre 15% operating margins. EEStor goal is to sign Joint Venture (JV) agreements with incumbant players in each segment of the 2.8B$ high voltage capacitor market and take it all over with disruptive pricing.
The comparison sheet provided by EEStor after the crucial Intertek 3rd round of third party test already gives us some precious hint about the level of cost reduction, if only from a material point of view
Indeed the sheet describes two set of capacitor with same electric spec:
Industry incumbant 600V capacitor:
price: > 1500$
Volume: 35897.4cm³ (35.9 l)
ESU (C3-B 700V layers):
Volume: 3113cm³ (3.1 l)
Industry incumbant 2400V capacitor:
Volume: 8932cm³ (8.9 l)
ESU (C3-B 1500V layers x2 in series = 3000V):
Volume: 3685cm³ (3.7 l)
In both case the EEStor capacitor volume is a fraction (10% and ~40%) of the incumbant's. And as pointed out by Zogbi, the material cost per pound is 8$ vs 20$ in favor of EEStor CMBT (Composition Modified Barium Titanate) (and 3$ / pound feedstock before being processed).
The two capacitors above have volume of ~3-4 litres. The early descriptions of 52.2kW-h CMBT EESU with the less density was suggesting a weight of 300lbs for a volume of 74.5 litre, so about 4 lbs/ litre for grossly the same material used in the capacitors here. So that would set a weight of 12-16 lbs for the 3-4 litres capacitors described above. And we're talking about 8$ per pound for EEStor processed material cost. So that would be a cost of 96$ - 128$ only for the material. And probably more a COGS in the 100-150$ in the best case, if the manufacturing is entirely automated.
If the competitiors sell the equivalent product at > 1500$ and end up with 15% operating margins, it means pricing them at 85% or 1250$ would put those competitors in the red, and ultimately out of business. That 1250$ represents a 88% - 92% gross margin over a 150-100$ COGS for EEStor. If shipment and sales cost could end up being under 100$ per capacitor, it would represent a margin up to 80% to split between EEStor and an eventual JV partner.
This suggest we could guess on EEStor ending up with 20% - 40% royalties, and their JV partners ending up with Operating Margins better than their actual 15%, while taking their respective markets all over by puting competitors out of business with disruptive pricing. (And then own a pricing monopoly for the duration of the patents, but that's an other story).
This means EEStor is in the position of crowning the single incumbant players that will end up owning their entire respective markets for a while, and thus negociating a very, very compelling royalty. But let's be conservative and use a 20% royalty to start with. And let's see what's the financial implication for ESU shareholders.
First let's take the entire 2.8B$ market and reduce it by 15%, which is the price reduction all around necessary to put all the competitors out of business. That shrinks it the market to ~2.4B$
Now each 20% slice of the 2.4B$ market is worth EEStor 2.4B x 20% x 20% = 96M$ in royalties which almost goes directly to the bottom line, so let's say 90M$ in earnings.
With 120M fully diluted shares, that's about 75¢ of Earning Per Share (EPS) for each 20% slice of market. So with a reasonnable Price/Earning (P/E) ratio of ~15, each 10% slice of market would give a ESU Stock Price (SP) of 11.25$.
That's 75x the actual 15¢ SP.
20% of the market: 11.25$ (75x the actual 15¢ SP)
40% of the market: 22.50$ (150x the actual 15¢ SP)
60% of the market: 33.75$ (225x the actual 15¢ SP)
All of the market: 56.25$ (375x the actual 15¢ SP)
I suggest that's the scale of what's at stake if EEStor management delivers on their High-Voltage Capacitor plan. Always good to have a rough idea of the possible outcome in mind.
Of course, that's with only 20% roylaties, we woud have to double that if the profits are splitted 50-50, which isn't unusual. And it's calculted with the cost of those non-optimal samples used in last August Intertek tests. I'm being told by EEStor management that the final prod cost could be a full order of magnitude less than what I got here. But let's be conservative and use the above numbers to start with.
The nice thing about that part of the business is that all the R&D, and production engineering is already done. It's based on samples manufactured in EEStor Austin Tx production facility, we're not talking about lab samples that then have to be engineered for production purpose. That part of the job would already be done. Or so goes the story anyway. (I'm still curious to see how that's going to scale up to a capacity of a few million part per year if the whole 2.5B$ market is up for grab, but hey! we'll see! :-) )
So the main risk, if I understand well, lies mainly in raising enough cash to complete the 6-12 months rodeo of JV agreements negociation. (Especially since those deals normally come with nice upfront on signature, plus lumpsum payments, along the techno transfer and sales milestones.) A nice variation of the chicken and egg problem if you ask me. Just fund it and watch it thrive, right ? Makes one wish he has a M$ available on its margin already! ;-)
Anyway, that's the low risk / high reward opportunity with EEStor. It's the reason one would *invest* in it, if / as / once the financing have been / is being completed.
The Eletrical Energy Storage Unit (EESU)
The other nice thing about EEStor is that on top of that low risk / high reward opportunity there's an other higher risk / very very high reward business opportunity. That of the Electrical Energy Storage Unit (EESU). EEStor management says its objective hasn't change since the early years, so let's have a look at the old claims to get an idea of what's at stake here.
The early years goal was to build an Electrical Energy Storage Unit able to store 52.2kW-h of energy, weights about 300 lbs (135kg), having a volume of 2.6 cu-ft (74.5 litres), boasting a self discharge rate of ~0.02% per 30 days, featuring a charging time of 3-6 minutes, having no life reduction with deep cycle usage, being built out of non hazardous materials, and showing negligible effect on energy storage due to temperature. The original 2005 plan also called for selling price starting at 3200$ and falling to $2,100 in high-volume production (in 2005 dollars anyway).
That would be plain and simple a dream electrical energy storage device. It would completely flip the transport sector on its head, from cars to truck to bus to trains to boat to tramways. But it would also disrupt the portable electronic market and provide the necessary equipement to allow renewable non-fossile fuel energy to thrive, because it could be used to separate the moment the energy is produced (while the wind blows and the sun shines) from the moment it is used. The markets are so large, if it works as planed by EEStor, that I have difficulties dimensionning it. Tens and tens of billions, if not hundreds. With proportionnal ESU SP, in the 100s.
This however involves further material R&D by EEStor, teaming with polymer specialists they plan to sub contract as soon as this round of financing is completed. Management hopes for results in as short as 3 months, once the polymer specialists work starts. I'll believe it when I see it. Material R&D is considered one of the most tricky, slow, and dark art filled there is. EEStor R&D team have been pretty good at it so far, pretty good here including a very impressively low cash burn rate for the present outcome. So as soon as those JV agreements are signed, it could continue for a lonnng time, on such low cash burn rate, in search for that Holy Grail. And that is all good, me think.
Now the interesting thing is that EEStor doesn't *need* to reach its original plan to score big on the Energy Storage front. It only needs to beat the different battery technologies features in their respective markets, to start with. Take cheap Lead-acid (Gel) batteries for instance. Whereas EESU original goal calls for an energy density of 700 W-h/l (52.2kW-h in 74.5l), lead acid batteries boast an energy density of about only 74 W-h/l, a little over one tenth of the original goal. Considering all the other features of the EESU (extremely fast recharge time, no hasardous materials, no life reduction with deep cycle use and self-discharge rate 50x smaller than that of lead acid batteries), and provided that it's price competitive, one could argue it would only take energy density in about the same ball park, say 50-60 W-h/l to dominate the 40 B$ lead-acid battery market.
And that alone is > 10x the High-Voltage capacitor market...
So... a nice Giga Bonus opportunity to keep an eye on, while cashing on the relatively low risk High-Voltage Capacitor disruptive business opportunity, if/when the financing completes.
A last interesting feature of EEStor is that at the actual fully diluted Market Cap of 15-18 M$ (this yet-to-be-completed financing round included), the whole of it is really priced at pre-bankruptcy level. It really remembers me of ProMetic in early 2012, right before they signed the deals and financing that would brought them on the journey to their actual ~2B$ Market Cap (but with one fifth of the shares). It's at a crossroad. Still a startup, finance and business wise, but with enough material (!) in its hands to thrive if the financing is completed and the next 6-12 months are played well. It can of course still fail, and badly at that, but the R&D has reached a turning point, with a first asset mature enough for it to become a pure business play.
My 2 cents
Forsyth : so jetzt!
Forsyth : eestor posting
Forsyth : artikel vom 17.11.16
Forsyth : Guter Stuff
To understand the nature of this investment, one needs to understand two key components of its history: the original EESTOR Inc. and the newer EESTOR Corp. EESTOR Inc. is the original technology core with EESTOR Corp. being the current majority tradeable owner of the original EESTOR Inc. This relationship and its derivation will be elaborated on further in this document.
The concept for EESTOR Inc. began pre-2000 as the brainchild of Carl Nelson and Richard Weir (more commonly referred to as Dick Weir or DW). Carl Nelson receivedhisBS in Chemistry in 1953 and MS in Chemistry in 1956from MIT. Nelson writes, "I have conducted research and development in ceramic materials and in the purification of ceramic components for 50+ yrs. In particular, I worked with Dr. Von Hippel, an early researcher and developer of composition-modified barium titanate (CMBT) powders, from 1956-1964."He goes on to say “The resulting composition modified barium titanate powders have an average dielectric constant (permittivity) of approximately 33,518 and an average breakdown voltage greater than 6000 V. In addition, the dielectric constant is not a strong function of temperature, having a tolerance of less than 15% over temperature range of -55°C to 125°C.”
These unique CMBT powders are at the core of EESTOR’s potential value. EESTOR has patented unique composition mixtures and production methodology that allow their CMBT powders to maintain at ambient temperatures the paraelectric properties required to support their application to the high voltage capacitor and energy storage markets that are being targeted. More on this later.
Dick Weir, a former marine pilot, receivedhis electrical engineering degree from California Polytechnic State University and met up with Carl Nelson earlier in his career while they both worked in the technology industry on disk storage technologies. During that time, they discussed betweenthemselves the potential application of the CMBT powders that Nelson had worked with, to the energy storage field via the production of ultracapacitors of significantly higher energy storage density than anything currently produced. Capacitors are a standard electrical component used in a wide range of electronics and electrical system applicationswith their primary function being to temporarily store electricity.
The path EESTOR Inc. has followed since then has been a circuitous and “tortured” one but it is the nature of this path that has led to the current unique investment opportunity. EESTOR Inc. was formally launchedin the 2000’s with funding from angelinvestors and the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins.The initial focus of the company was on the processes required to produce the required CMBT powders at high purity and low cost. Then these powders were to be used in the production of components to
build the target ultracapacitors to be utilized in a range of applications but with an initial focus on powering electric vehicles.This is where the linkage to Ian Clifford(IC), the current CEO of EEStorCorp comes in.
Mr. Clifford began his career as a photographer. Mentored by Ansel Adams, he quickly became one of Canada's leading corporate photographers. In 1995, Mr. Clifford co-founded digIT Interactive, a full-service Internet marketing company serving Fortune 500 clients at the peak of the market. After selling digIT Interactive to Quebecor World in March of 2000, he sought a more world-changing endeavour and co-founded Feel Good Cars Inc. (the precursor to ZENN Motor Companyand eventually EESTOR Corp).Feel Good Cars was founded with the intent to develop electric cars for the automotive market. Their initial product was a low speed electric car powered by lead-acid batteries that ended up being market-challenged because it was not certified for use on public road infrastructurein many jurisdictions.IC was looking to build a more robust electric car but to do that he needed a much better electricity storage technology. On a quest to find that technology, he linked up with DW and in 2004 had Feel Good Cars (now ZENN) take a 3.8% stake in EESTOR for an investment of $2.5 million which also gave ZENN worldwide licensing rights forthe technology for automotive applications. In 2009, ZENN upped its ownership to 10.7% for an additional investment of $5 million.In 2010, it completely abandoned all plans to build any type of automotive product and instead was going to focus on the development and licensing of the EESTOR technology rights it had acquired.
Meanwhile, EESTOR Inc. had completed its pilot production line for the CBMT powder to be used in the ultracapacitors and was producing powder meeting permittivity targets. It was then suggested, both publicly and privately, that production ultracapacitor energy storage units (called EESUs)were less than a year away.
But a year passed and nothing. Was DW actually building EESUs and if so, was there an underlying problem? For now, for competition related issues, we don’t know specifically what the issue was but there is speculation that the planned method to build the EESU components by encapsulating the CMBT powder in a glass substrate was not working out as the resulting “layers” were failing over time, potentially from cracking problems.
EESTOR then switched its focus to using polymers to encapsulate the CMBT powder. Despite claims via independent third party tests (where the independence of the third party has been questioned) that the polymer CMBT mix was producing groundbreaking levels of energy storage density, there were major issueswith leakage in that the polymer CMBT mix could not hold a charge more than a few seconds! By then Ian Clifford had stepped aside and James Kofman had taken the reins as CEO at ZENN. Things came to a head towards the end of 2013 where Kofman pushed for some definitive testing of EESTOR technology for energy storage applications. The results of this testing were not able to prove that EESTORs technology at the time was anywhere near ready for application in the energy storage market.With future prospects looking bleak, in January 2014 DW agreed to sell controlling interest in EEStor Inc. to ZENN to try and salvage what value there was from EESTOR’s technology. After evaluating the near term prospects for the company, Kofman left ZENNindicating that his interim role as CEO was now complete
At this point, IC resumed his role as ZENN CEO and with a now 71% stake in EESTOR Inc., refocusedthe now closely linked EESTOR corporate entities. ZENN was renamed to EESTOR Corp. and the focus of the company was shifted in the short term to leveraging the technology in the high voltage capacitor market where the current leakage issues would not be a limiting factor. In 2015, EESTOR released a series of test results that purportedly demonstrated unique properties that could be leveraged in the high voltage capacitor market. Backed up by a leading capacitor industry marketing consultant, Dennis Zogbi, and the results of the testing conducted by the accredited testing company Intertek, EESTOR claimed it could be disruptivein a market segment of $1.8 billion dollars annual sales
The challenge for EESTOR was that just as it was ready to do the initial commercialization of EESTOR’s technology via licensing agreements with existing capacitor industry companies, it was runningout of money. As a result, IC was forced to hit the pause button while he tried to secure additional financing to move EESTOR forward. A challenging capital market, in combination with EESTORs tortured history, made it a challenge to raise the necessaryfunds. As a result, EESTOR was not able to close the associated private placement until June 2016, at which time it had secured the target of $3 million of additional funding. With the funding secured, EESTOR was able to restart operations and in November 2016 released a fourth set of testing results from both Intertek and another testing company well known in the capacitor industry. This testing further demonstrated the advantages of the EESTOR technology including a “stacking effect” that further improves capacitance and reduces leakage. With the testing results, EESTOR released a white paper that claimed that with these new test results, EESTOR could be competitive in an approximately $25 Billion annual sales segment related to electricity grid applications and of that market segment, it would be “market disruptive” in 40% of it.As a result of this new information release, the stock price climbed considerably and as a consequence warrant holders provided an additional $2million of funding to EESTOR as they executed a series of warrants due to expire.
In addition to traditional capacitor applications, EESTOR is also continuing to pursue its original goal of using the technology for electricity storage applications. To this end it is investigating using ahigh-polarity polymer to mix with its CMBT powder to achieve the desired energy storage and retention levels. In December 2016, the company signed an agreement with Alchemy Synergy Group, Inc.to work with EESTOR to develop and test specialized high-polarity polymers. If EESTOR is able to leverage these new polymers to improve the energy density and retention characteristics of the end capacitor product, the scope of potential markets is huge. Just the grid application market alone is worth up to $2 trillionannually. Add to that transportation, defense, portable electronics and power tool applications and the market potential is mind boggling
In terms of valuating the stock, there are currently roughly the equivalent of 200 million shares potentially outstanding taking into account all available options, warrants and EESTOR Corp’s. 71% stake in EESTOR Inc.Given the planned licensing approach wherebyEESTOR would earn income via licensing fees, with little associated costs, $1 billion dollars of revenue to EESTOR would translate into a stock price of $50 at a P/E ratio of 10. Given that the potential markets may be measured in the trillions of dollars, the potential of this stock is incredible if EESTOR can deliver the goods, even considering that
EESTOR may only get a 10-20% licensing fee on sales. The stock in the 4thquarter of 2016 has been trading in the 40 to 70 cent range!
If EESTOR can deliver the goods, what are the key risks to be aware of? The biggest risk would come from competing technologies be they in energy storage or energy production. There are many, many fronts currently being pursued to achieve the holy grail of high density, low cost electricity storage. Cheap, highly compact energy production via LENR or related technology couldalsobe a challenge but the emergence of such technology is still a long shot at this point.
So here in January 2017, where do things currently sit?1)EESTOR believes it has capacitor technology that can be competitive and/or disruptive to large segments of the multi-billion dollar high voltage capacitor market.2)EESTOR is pursuing research with high-polarity polymers it believes can enable the application of EESTOR’s CMBT powders to the electricity storage market which has vast potential. Testing and publishing of results related to this research could come at any time. As results along the two key dimensions of energy storage density and retention time improve, more and more potential markets open up to EESTOR’s technology.3)EESTOR has test kits ready to provide to leading capacitor industry players it is seeking to partner with via licensing agreements to bring its technology to market and is planning to conduct meetings with these organizations in the January timeframe to move things forward in terms of securing such licensing agreements.4)At the end of October 2016, EESTOR extended warrants representingover $5 million in additional investment to the end of March 2016, but made this the last extension of these warrants (priced at $1.50 per share). This suggests that EESTOR expects to have releasedsufficient good news by then to put these warrants “in the money”!
Forsyth : eestor
Forsyth : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKBqHnIhtQg&featur
Forsyth : hier
stksat|229159315 : aktuelles Interview mit Ian C.
eure Einschätzungen immer gefragt!