Dow Jones: Neues Ziel 9500 ?

Steep Decline

Dow breaks sloping range to downside, falls to the Close.

The Dow opened the session lower this morning, but really got going to the downside once the lower boundary of the bearish range was broken at 10,075, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The downside break sparked a solid, steady decline throughout the session worth 163 points.

The fact that the Dow has broken the range to the downside implies a likely continuation lower in the medium term. Look for the index to hit key support at around 9,900. A break at this level will indicate movement toward the lower boundary of the wide, sloping range at around 9,500, which is quite a ways down.

We may see a reaction rally tomorrow, but the index should be considered bearish below 10,100.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow got a downside break from a tight intraday consolidation, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Look for the continued weakness for tomorrow's Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 10,075 and are still in the position. We will move our stops down to 10,050 to lock in some of the profit, while allowing the index room to run. We will want to stay Short below 10,000, and will enter Longs above 10,100.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each get downside breaks and continue lower to the Close. Look for each index to continue trending lower over the course of the next several days. *

Summary

The Dow closed the session sharply lower today, after getting a key downside break from a bearish consolidation, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The index will likely continue trending lower toward 9,900, but a break here will indicate an even further decline.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team