Der Bär scheint lahm oder gar tot zu sein
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Brüssel (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen der EU-Kommission ermittelte für August 2006 eine Verschlechterung beim Index zur Wirtschaftsstimmung in der EU.
So sank der Sammel-Index zur Einschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in der gesamten Union (EU25) auf 108,4 Punkte, nach 109,5 Punkten im Juli. Gleichzeitig reduzierte sich der Index für die Eurozone auf 106,7 Punkte, während er im Vormonat bei 107,8 Punkten gelegen hatte.
Der Sammel-Index beinhaltet die Bewertung von Industrie und Bauwirtschaft sowie das Verbrauchervertrauen, die Entwicklung des Einzelhandels und den Verlauf an den europäischen Aktienbörsen. (31.08.2006/ac/n/m)
Quelle: Finanzen.net / Aktiencheck.de AG
© Aktiencheck.de AG
 Börse Frankfurt: Realtime | (01.09., 10:47:11) |
| Geld in EUR (50.000 Stk.): | 0,340 (-0,010 / -2,86%) |
| Brief in EUR (50.000 Stk.): | 0,350 (-0,010 / -2,78%) |
| Emittentenkurs: | (01.09., 10:47:18) |
| Geld (in EUR): | 0,340 (-0,010 / -2,86%) |
| Brief (in EUR): | 0,350 (-0,010 / -2,78%) |
 Realtime-Quote: | (01.09., 10:47:12) |
| Geld in EUR (50.000 Stk.): | 0,340 (-0,010 / -2,86%) |
| Brief in EUR (50.000 Stk.): | 0,350 (-0,010 / -2,78%) |
| Spread | |
| Absolut: | 0,010 |
| Homogenisiert: | 1,000 |
| in % des Briefkurses: | 2,86% |
Kursdaten Basiswert Realtime inaktiv
| S&P 500 INDEX (A0AET0) | 31.08., 23:00:07 | |
 | in Pkt.: | 1.303,80 |
 | in Pkt.: | X.XXX,XX |
| Realtime +15 Min.> RealPush aktivieren | ||
Stammdaten Optionsschein ?
| WKN / ISIN: | DB294C / DE000DB294C0 |
| Emittent: | > Deutsche Bank |
| Basiswert: | S&P 500 INDEX (WKN A0AET0) |
| Basispreis: | 1.300,000 USD |
| Bez.-Verh.: | 0,010 |
| Fälligkeit: | 15.03.2007 |
| Typ Call/Put: | PUT |
| Typ Ausübung: | Amerikanisch |
| Währungsgesichert: | nein |
| Erster Handelstag: | 09.03.2006 |
| Letzter Handelstag: | 14.03.2007 |
| Börsenplätze: | FRA STU |
sicher runter usw., na dann wünsche ich viel Spass!! Ich bin volle Kanne long und so wird es auch kommen!!
mfg J.B.
Tatsache jedoch ist, dass es seit 1997 in JEDEM Herbst einen Abverkauf an den (US-)Börsen gab. Der Rückgang im DOW JONES lag dabei jedes Mal bei mindestens 4,7 %, in fünf dieser Jahre war er sogar größer als 15 %. Das ist statistisch signifikant, und es wäre töricht, dies zu ignorieren.
Rev Shark Blog
Self-Fulfilling Seasonality?
By Rev Shark
8/31/2006 12:59 PM EDT
The market is weakening as news hits that Iran is continuing its uranium-enrichment program. President Bush is stating that there must be consequences for Iran's defiance. Oil stocks are trading up sharply on the news, and the indices are seeing some pressure.
As the leaves turn color and the kids start back to school, the big issue on the minds of many market participants is seasonality. Almost everyone knows that September is the weakest month of the year for the indices, and that the two biggest stock market crashes took place in October 1929 and October 1987.
Seasonality is not just a myth, and recent history is very supportive of the phenomena. In fact, the DJIA has declined during the fall every year for the past nine years. Every fall from 1997 to 2005, there has been a decline of at least 4.7%, and in five of the years the decline was greater than 15%. That is definitely statistically significant, and we'd be foolish not to reflect on it after the good run we have experienced lately.
The big question is whether this well-known seasonality is a contrary indicator or a self-fulfilling prophecy. Is it being anticipated to such a degree that it has already been substantially discounted and unlikely to occur?
The bullish scenario is that so many folks are expecting seasonal weakness that they will have limited long-side exposure. Thus they will have to scramble to get long if the market doesn't do a seasonal rollover.
The other scenario is that the well-known seasonality isn't priced in and will in fact occur simply because so many believe it will occur. If the market begins to struggle, will the sellers become more active because of the frequency of seasonal selloffs in the past?
Once selling begins, there is probably a likelihood that it will pick up some momentum simply because some are aware of the seasonal tendencies. They will sell simply because they are concerned that others will sell and the whole process will feed on itself.
So what we need to figure out is where market players have already anticipated seasonality and therefore decreased the likelihood that it has occurred, or will they only react to seasonality once there is some actual price weakness to support the theory?
I'm leaning toward seasonality being a self-fulfilling prophecy. I think it is likely to occur to some degree simply because so many expect it to occur. I'm prepared to be wrong about that, but the thesis is in my head and I will consider it as I watch this action unfold.
Ich sehe mich in dem Fall als optimistischen Bär!!
hobo
KK 0,33€
Somit ist meine Shortposition komplett.
Gruß und ein schönes entspannendes Wochenende.
Permanent
Schönes WE
Permanent
http://www.ariva.de/board/270040
Wenn ich heute CNBC einschalte, so bekomme ich fast nur noch Optimisten zu sehen und hören. So denke ich ist es an der Zeit die Aktienquote noch weiter zu reduzieren und stärker auf Shorts zu setzen.
Gruß
Permanent
Ist die Frustration der Bären bereits groß genug? Ist bereits genung Geld von den Bären verbrannt worden?
Gruß
Permanent