China Mengnui +++

..outstanding 07 results
..gross margin up 24%
..basic EPS up 40%
..cash heavy
..35,1% market share
forecast FY07= h$,72 + FY8= ,92
tgt h$ 36,18 = FY8 40xPER

HK 34,25 =+0,8=+2,4%  

2319 MENGNIU DAIRY
34.150 Change: 1.400     4.28%  

2319   MENGNIU DAIRY   27.60   -2.400   -8.000   27.38M

Steuer auf Milchprodukte..  

 

Mengniu Down 8.2%; May Revisit In 1Q08 - ML

Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) off 8.2% at HK$27.55, in 2-day 12.8% fall hurt by Merrill Lynch cutting stock to Sell from Buy due to higher raw milk prices.

Still, ML believes Mengniu facing smaller raw milk price increase vs competitors, views Mengniu "as an option on industry consolidation," with raw material price hike may accelerate this process, though situation may "get worse before it gets better."

Thinks time to revisit stock is after intended product prices increases implemented, likely in 1Q08. Like yesterday, volume hefty at HK$685 million, though intraday low of HK$26.55 likely solid short-term floor, which off 28% vs all-time high of HK$36.75 hit Oct. 2.  

Mengniu Dairy Dn 4.3%; UBS Keeps Buy Call  

Mengniu (2319, $26.95) 12M Target $33.82 Trading BUY

In 3Q07, raw milk price of Mengniu rose 15% yoy due to higher animal feed price. Further increase is expected in 4Q07. For 1% raw milk price increase, we estimate net profit of Mengniu would drop by over 5%. Market concerned about earnings would drop sharply, that has led to a 17% drop in share price last week. However, market’s overreaction creates a good buying opportunity in our view.

In 1H07, with shift of product mix and efficient cost control, Mengniu maintained retail prices of dairy products with gross margin grew to 24.5% from 22.9% in 2006. Meanwhile, raw milk price rose only 6-7%, reflecting the company possesses higher execution capabilities than competitors.

In July 2007, leading dairy companies reduced promotion expense (such as 1-for-5 gift). This has helped Mengniu increase average selling price by 2% indirectly.

We estimate a 0.4% increase in average selling price could offset 1% increase in raw milk price. Mengniu has already raised retail price in major cities, and management planned to increase selling price as much as 8% by year-end of 2007.

Raw milk price increase is likely to ease in 2008, since the government is going to provide subsidies and discounted loans to support cow-farmers.

Negative impact of higher raw milk price on earnings is manageable since Mengniu is improving its product mix, increasing average selling price as controlling cost efficiently. We therefore maintain BUY with target price of $33.82.  

Mengniu Dairy Target Cut to HK$33.12

ABN AMRO lowers target price for China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) to HK$33.12 vs HK$35.12 after 15% hike in raw milk prices. However, notes company will continue to upgrade its product-mix towards high end milk, yoghurt, infant milk powder, as well as raising prices on some of its products nationally next month. Says those measures likely to offset higher milk price, thus keeps Buy rating. Still, cuts earnings forecast by 4-8% for 2007-2009 as a result of the higher raw milk. Stock now +3.2% at HK$27.35.  

2,39e = 27,35h$

China Mengniu (2319, $27.70) 12M Target $33.82 Trading BUY

In 3Q07, raw milk price of Mengniu rose 15% yoy due to higher animal feed price. For 1% raw milk price increase, we estimate net profit of Mengniu will drop over 5%. Market worries about sharp earnings decline caused the share price of Mengniu to fall 21% month-to-date.

In 1H07, with a shift of product mix and efficient cost control, Mengniu maintained retail prices of diary products and managed to improve gross margin to 24.5% from 22.9% in 2006. Meanwhile, raw milk price rose 6-7% during the period reflecting that the company possesses higher execution capability than its competitors.

In July 2007, leading dairy companies started to raise prices on some products. This has helped Mengniu to increase the average selling price of its products by 2% indirectly.

We estimate a 0.4% increase in average selling price could offset 1% increase in raw milk price. Mengniu has raised average selling price as much as 10% on 1 December 2007, enough to offset rising raw milk price for 2008. Inflation-driven pricing power enables it to raise retail price without negative impact on sales volume.

Raw milk price increase is likely to ease in 2008, since the government is going to provide subsidies and discounted loans to support cow-farmers.

The effect of higher raw milk price on earnings is manageable since Mengniu is improving its product mix, increasing average selling price as controlling cost efficiently. We therefore maintain our BUY  

China urges financial institutions to support milk sector

The central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) have urged financial institutions to strengthen their support for the development of the milk industry.

In a joint statement published on the central bank's website, financial institutions are encouraged to accelerate their review of loan applications from qualified milk companies, especially leading producers.

It added that producers experiencing difficulty in repaying loans contracted between January 2006 and June 2008 may be placed in deferred payment schemes under certain conditions, with possible exemptions from interest penalties, the statement said.

On the other hand, it said regulatory agencies will strengthen their supervision of credit conditions and operating results at enterprises extended such concessions in order to prevent new bad loans, the central bank said.

In September 2006, Premier Wen Jiabao said that the government will aid the milk industry with subsidies and insurance to support the sector's development  

Mengniu Dairy (2319, $28.15) 12M Target $33.82 Trading BUY

The termination of JV contracts with Danone is expected to have minimal financial impact on Mengniu. Mengniu’s proprietary yogurt products proceeded well in market.

In 1H07, with shift of product mix and efficient cost control, Mengniu maintained retail prices of dairy products with gross margin growing to 24.5% from 22.9% in 2006. Meanwhile, raw milk price rose only 6-7% yoy, reflecting the company possesses higher execution capabilities than competitors.

In 3Q07, raw milk price of Mengniu rose 15% yoy due to higher animal feed price. Further increase of raw milk price is expected in 4Q07. However, management indicated its confidence in managing cost pressure and expected no significant price increments in 2008, since local government had set up mechanism to mitigate volatilities in raw milk supplies and prices.

Since July 2007, leading dairy companies reduced promotion expenses. This has helped Mengniu to increase average selling price by 2% indirectly.

We estimate that a 0.4% increase in average selling price could offset 1% increase in raw milk price. Mengniu has already raised retail price by 10% nationwide, adequate to offset the surge in raw milk price.

Negative impact of higher raw milk price on earnings is manageable since Mengniu is improving its product mix, increasing average selling price as controlling cost efficiently. We therefore maintain BUY with target price of $33.82  

 

 

der Hauptkonkurrent von CMD hat gestern die Erlaubnis erhlatne die Preise zu erh¨hen....  

 

-Lebensmittelkrise/Vergiftungen

-generelle China weite Erhöhung der Milchproduktion

-keine klare Zielvorgaben

-am 19.09. Erhöhung der letzten Zahlen um 20%

-Vertrauensverlust nach 2.Skandal

HK heute: 2319 MENGNIU DAIRY 7.96 -12.04 -60.20           3,638,719 449,507

JP Morgan slashed its target price on Mengniu Dairy to 3.80 hkd from 18.0

UOB Kay Hian downgraded  target to 12.95 hkd from 25.15.

Deutsche Bank cuts HK$14.00 from HK$27.50,

CICC sell  To HK$2.9 - CICC

GS Target Cut To HK$14.0 From HK$28.5 By Goldman

 

 

14064 HS-M NIU@EC0903 2009/03/20 0.00% 24.88 Call European 10 214.39 11.96

14524 UB-M NIU@EC0902 2009/02/16 0.00% 23.88 Call European 10 223.25 3.39

14567 CT-M NIU@EC0907 2009/07/20 0.00% 28.88 Call European 10 255.23 0.00

09158 HS-M NIU@EC0810 2008/10/24 0.350 21.43% 23.88 Call European 10 195.08 73.91

09575 MB-M NIU@EC0811 2008/11/28 0.116 33.62% 35 Call European 10 332.35 54.20
 

2319 MENGNIU DAIRY 8.66 0.71 +8.93% 1,092,235 127,803  

2319 MENGNIU DAIRY 8.71 0.56 +6.87 415,228 48,544  

2319 MENGNIU DAIRY 8.66 0.41 +4.97 356,829 40,481  

2319 MENGNIU DAIRY 9.09 0.44 +5.09 261,064 28,700  

-die Verkäufe steigen wieder
-bessere (!)Kontrollen
-ca 80% der Verkäufezurückgeholt
-über 50MA (8,15-8,5h$)
-über 8,15h$ Entwicklung beobachten


 

Mengniu Dairy +8.8% On Govt's Subsidy

8.470   Change: 0.850     11.16%  

DBS Rates Mengniu Dairy May At Fully Valued, Cuts Tgt To HK$7.6


ein paar warrants dazu:

14064 HS-M NIU@EC0903
0.013 Change: +0.003     +30.00%
Turnover: 9500.000
2008/12/02 12:30 Volume: 780000.000

14524 UB-M NIU@EC0902
0.100 Change: -0.140     -58.33%
Turnover: 0.000
2008/12/02 12:30 Volume: 0.000