China Mengnui +++

Greetings

Milchprodukte weiter gross im Kommen +9.6%

wenig Handel in D

viel Glück  

der grösste Milchproduzent schlägt weiter zu HK +4,19%  

..kaum 2 Monate später update..heute morgen:
HK 24,55$ +2,3% Vol +++  weiterer Ausbau Plan - weltweit grösster Molkerei betrieb zu werden

sa VNM Vinamilk aus Vietnam .bald ??? in Berlin Handelbar



viel Glück  

DJ MARKET TALK: Mengniu Dairy Up 4%; '06 Pft +59%, Beats View
2007/04/12 16:16  

1127 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley keeps China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK [News / Quote]) as Overweight, raises target to HK$28.50 from HK$20.00, implying 33x estimated 2008 P/E, says 'with its strong execution capabilities, it is in a good position to continue to capitalize on the growth in the dairy industry.' Trading in shares suspended this morning without reasons provided, stock last at HK$24.85. (JNL) Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; MarketTalk@dowjones.com  

Net profit of China Mengniu (2319) grew 59% yoy from RMB456.8mn in 2005 to RMB727.4mn in 2006, which is 10% higher than market forecast. The yoy top line growth of 50% from RMB10.82bn to RMB16.25bn boosted the earnings. Although operating margin declined from 6.04% to 6.02% mainly due to the increase in advertising expenses, the improvement in gross margin by 0.6% yoy from 22.3% to 22.9% and decline in effective tax rate from 10.0% to 8.1% further strengthen the earnings. While share price increased 3.8% yesterday after the results announcement at noon, we believe the result is still positive to short-term share price of China Mengniu given its PRC consumption nature, 39x 2007 PER with fast EPS yoy growth of 46% and 35% in 2006 and 2007 respectively. (Timothy Li)  

Der Markt:
Chinas Milchindustrie verdoppelte ihre Produktion innerhalb des Zeitraums von 2000 bis 2005 auf 28,65 Millionen Tonnen, so die Statistik der China Dairy Association (CDA). Laut dem Landwirtschaftsministerium soll sich die Molkereiproduktion bis 2010 auf 42 Mio. Tonnen erhöhen. Der Verbrauch der Chinesen an Molkereiprodukten ist bis Ende 2005 auf 21,7 kg  pro Kopf gestiegen. Die jährliche Verbrauchssteigerung lag in der letzten Dekade bei durchschnittlich 14,6 Prozent. Der Verbrauch wäre noch höher ausgefallen, wenn die zeitweise existierenden Zuteilungscoupons in einigen Gebieten Chinas den Markt nicht gebremst hätten. Inzwischen ist die Milchindustrieentwicklung so weit vorangeschritten, dass sich das Wachstum des Verbrauchs pro Kopf in einer positiven Wechselbeziehung mit dem des Bruttoinlandsprodukts pro Kopf befindet, so der Report der CDA. China hat 690 Molkereiunternehmen von denen 58 mehr als 300 Tonnen Milch pro Tag verarbeiten. 78 dieser Unternehmen hatten 2005 einen Umsatz von über 100 Million Yuan (12.8 Mio. US Dollar) erzielt.

Quelle: http://www.emfis.de/global/global/analysen/...0_ueber_20_ID42838.html
 

C Mengnui hoh bewertet..aber grosses Pot
Mkt cap US$ 5,888.3
FY07per 43,8
FY08per 34,2
3y EPS CAGR% +29,3

vgl
C Yurun Food 1068HK
mkt cap 1806,81  FY07 18,9 FY08 16,2  3Y CAGR +30,2
 

 

2007-9-12   12:34:00 p.m. HKT, XFNA
*HK-LISTED CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY H1 NET PROFIT 485 MLN YUAN  

 

Mengniu Dairy (2319) (Hold) reported its net profit for 1H up 41.3% to 485.1m yuan. During the period, revenue up 32.8% to 10.02b yuan. Liquid milk revenue up 36.9% and accounted for 87.8% of total revenue. Its share in the mainland liquid milk market up from 31.7% to 35.1%. Revenue from yogurt up 34% to 608m yuan. The ice-cream segment sales up 12% to 1.14b yuan, accounted for 11.4% of total revenue. Selling and distribution costs up 53% to 1.66b yuan and accounted for 16.5% of revenue, up from 14.4%. In order to face fierce competition, the company is developing yogurt and ice-cream products in order to diversify revenue sources.  

Mengniu Dairy (2319) reported its net profit for 1H up 41.3% to 485m yuan, higher than expectd. During the period, the gross profit margin increased 1.1 percentage point to 24.5%,despite the fierce competition from peers Yili and Bright Diary as well as the cost of milk up 6%. Net profit margin rose to 4.8% from 4.6%. The result reflects the effective cost control and products switch to high valued added as well as good branding. Its share in the mainland liquid milk market up from 31.7% to 35.1%. In order to maintain market share and profit margin, the company is developing yogurt and ice-cream products in order to diversify revenue sources. Target at $36, stop loss at $3  

MENGNIU DAIRY (02319)
Financial Statements - [Interim/Half-Year Report]
Interim Report 2007
http://www.hkex.com.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/...s.asp?id=000553911  

..outstanding 07 results
..gross margin up 24%
..basic EPS up 40%
..cash heavy
..35,1% market share
forecast FY07= h$,72 + FY8= ,92
tgt h$ 36,18 = FY8 40xPER

HK 34,25 =+0,8=+2,4%  

2319 MENGNIU DAIRY
34.150 Change: 1.400     4.28%  

2319   MENGNIU DAIRY   27.60   -2.400   -8.000   27.38M

Steuer auf Milchprodukte..  

 

Mengniu Down 8.2%; May Revisit In 1Q08 - ML

Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) off 8.2% at HK$27.55, in 2-day 12.8% fall hurt by Merrill Lynch cutting stock to Sell from Buy due to higher raw milk prices.

Still, ML believes Mengniu facing smaller raw milk price increase vs competitors, views Mengniu "as an option on industry consolidation," with raw material price hike may accelerate this process, though situation may "get worse before it gets better."

Thinks time to revisit stock is after intended product prices increases implemented, likely in 1Q08. Like yesterday, volume hefty at HK$685 million, though intraday low of HK$26.55 likely solid short-term floor, which off 28% vs all-time high of HK$36.75 hit Oct. 2.  

Mengniu Dairy Dn 4.3%; UBS Keeps Buy Call  

Mengniu (2319, $26.95) 12M Target $33.82 Trading BUY

In 3Q07, raw milk price of Mengniu rose 15% yoy due to higher animal feed price. Further increase is expected in 4Q07. For 1% raw milk price increase, we estimate net profit of Mengniu would drop by over 5%. Market concerned about earnings would drop sharply, that has led to a 17% drop in share price last week. However, market’s overreaction creates a good buying opportunity in our view.

In 1H07, with shift of product mix and efficient cost control, Mengniu maintained retail prices of dairy products with gross margin grew to 24.5% from 22.9% in 2006. Meanwhile, raw milk price rose only 6-7%, reflecting the company possesses higher execution capabilities than competitors.

In July 2007, leading dairy companies reduced promotion expense (such as 1-for-5 gift). This has helped Mengniu increase average selling price by 2% indirectly.

We estimate a 0.4% increase in average selling price could offset 1% increase in raw milk price. Mengniu has already raised retail price in major cities, and management planned to increase selling price as much as 8% by year-end of 2007.

Raw milk price increase is likely to ease in 2008, since the government is going to provide subsidies and discounted loans to support cow-farmers.

Negative impact of higher raw milk price on earnings is manageable since Mengniu is improving its product mix, increasing average selling price as controlling cost efficiently. We therefore maintain BUY with target price of $33.82.  

Mengniu Dairy Target Cut to HK$33.12

ABN AMRO lowers target price for China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) to HK$33.12 vs HK$35.12 after 15% hike in raw milk prices. However, notes company will continue to upgrade its product-mix towards high end milk, yoghurt, infant milk powder, as well as raising prices on some of its products nationally next month. Says those measures likely to offset higher milk price, thus keeps Buy rating. Still, cuts earnings forecast by 4-8% for 2007-2009 as a result of the higher raw milk. Stock now +3.2% at HK$27.35.  

2,39e = 27,35h$

China Mengniu (2319, $27.70) 12M Target $33.82 Trading BUY

In 3Q07, raw milk price of Mengniu rose 15% yoy due to higher animal feed price. For 1% raw milk price increase, we estimate net profit of Mengniu will drop over 5%. Market worries about sharp earnings decline caused the share price of Mengniu to fall 21% month-to-date.

In 1H07, with a shift of product mix and efficient cost control, Mengniu maintained retail prices of diary products and managed to improve gross margin to 24.5% from 22.9% in 2006. Meanwhile, raw milk price rose 6-7% during the period reflecting that the company possesses higher execution capability than its competitors.

In July 2007, leading dairy companies started to raise prices on some products. This has helped Mengniu to increase the average selling price of its products by 2% indirectly.

We estimate a 0.4% increase in average selling price could offset 1% increase in raw milk price. Mengniu has raised average selling price as much as 10% on 1 December 2007, enough to offset rising raw milk price for 2008. Inflation-driven pricing power enables it to raise retail price without negative impact on sales volume.

Raw milk price increase is likely to ease in 2008, since the government is going to provide subsidies and discounted loans to support cow-farmers.

The effect of higher raw milk price on earnings is manageable since Mengniu is improving its product mix, increasing average selling price as controlling cost efficiently. We therefore maintain our BUY  

China urges financial institutions to support milk sector

The central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) have urged financial institutions to strengthen their support for the development of the milk industry.

In a joint statement published on the central bank's website, financial institutions are encouraged to accelerate their review of loan applications from qualified milk companies, especially leading producers.

It added that producers experiencing difficulty in repaying loans contracted between January 2006 and June 2008 may be placed in deferred payment schemes under certain conditions, with possible exemptions from interest penalties, the statement said.

On the other hand, it said regulatory agencies will strengthen their supervision of credit conditions and operating results at enterprises extended such concessions in order to prevent new bad loans, the central bank said.

In September 2006, Premier Wen Jiabao said that the government will aid the milk industry with subsidies and insurance to support the sector's development  

Mengniu Dairy (2319, $28.15) 12M Target $33.82 Trading BUY

The termination of JV contracts with Danone is expected to have minimal financial impact on Mengniu. Mengniu’s proprietary yogurt products proceeded well in market.

In 1H07, with shift of product mix and efficient cost control, Mengniu maintained retail prices of dairy products with gross margin growing to 24.5% from 22.9% in 2006. Meanwhile, raw milk price rose only 6-7% yoy, reflecting the company possesses higher execution capabilities than competitors.

In 3Q07, raw milk price of Mengniu rose 15% yoy due to higher animal feed price. Further increase of raw milk price is expected in 4Q07. However, management indicated its confidence in managing cost pressure and expected no significant price increments in 2008, since local government had set up mechanism to mitigate volatilities in raw milk supplies and prices.

Since July 2007, leading dairy companies reduced promotion expenses. This has helped Mengniu to increase average selling price by 2% indirectly.

We estimate that a 0.4% increase in average selling price could offset 1% increase in raw milk price. Mengniu has already raised retail price by 10% nationwide, adequate to offset the surge in raw milk price.

Negative impact of higher raw milk price on earnings is manageable since Mengniu is improving its product mix, increasing average selling price as controlling cost efficiently. We therefore maintain BUY with target price of $33.82