Biotech-Aktien (US)
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www.suntimes.com/health/2858026,CST-NWS-health03.article
Man sollte bei dem ganzen Investieren nicht vergessen, was eigentlich dahinter steht.
Gruß
MicroV
Ein sehr interessanter Artikel....
What Is Avanir Pharmaceuticals Really Worth?
I didn’t think Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) was going to get approval for Neudextra and I was wrong. So in keeping with good journalism, I decided to write a follow up article. Of course, I could write one listing the reasons why the company is overvalued to make up for the fact I was wrong, but I see I was beaten to the punch. Instead, I decided to turn my focus on helping longs answer the question I have seen floating around the message boards: What is the true value of the stock?
To do so I had to make a few assumptions:
- I have heard sales projections from $350M to $600M. Any valuation today has to be based on $350M with any sales increases rewarding shareholders. Otherwise there is no reason to speculate on the stock.
- Cost of goods sold and expenses will run about 70% of gross revenues and taxes at 35% of net income. These numbers are fairly standard industry wide.
- A PE multiplier needs to be applied. In the first scenario we will apply a PE ratio of 21 which represents an average for biotechnology companies.
Using the criteria above resulted in an initial valuation of $15.25/share. This is in line with some of the recent price targets I have seen from analysts.
Revenue | $350,000,000 |
Expenses | $245,000,000 |
Income | $105,000,000 |
Taxes | $36,750,000 |
Net Income | $68,250,000 |
Common Shares | 93,968,532 |
EPS | $0.73 |
PE Multiplier | 21 |
Value per Share | $15.25 |
So why is the stock trading so much lower? The first problem I see is the PE multiplier. Avanir is no longer a small biotech company; it has a product and approval and it’s time to start manufacturing. As such it should be valued more in line with the major drug manufacturers which would represent a PE ratio of 11. Plug this multiplier into the equation and we get a valuation of about $8.00/share, very close to many of the pre-approval price estimates of $8-$9.
Revenue | $350,000,000 |
Expenses | $245,000,000 |
Income | $105,000,000 |
Taxes | $36,750,000 |
Net Income | $68,250,000 |
Common Shares | 93,968,532 |
EPS | $0.73 |
PE Multiplier | 11 |
Value per Share | $7.99 |
So I found the pre-approval valuation, but still need to explain the stock’s current price. For that we go to the latest 10-Q and dig to find two things most analysts missed:
- There is an additional 20.5M in options, warrants and restricted stock not accounted for. These would increase the common shares outstanding to about 114.5M.
- Way deep down in the 10-Q came this little notation under Commitments & Contingencies:
In addition, the Company is obligated to pay CNS a royalty ranging from approximately 5% to 8% of net GAAP revenues.
That second factor has a big influence on the valuation. Notice how it was not income but revenues, pulling 8% off the top before even starting. Adjusting our calculations for the above changes results in the following:
Revenue | $350,000,000 |
Royalty | $28,000,000 |
Adjusted Revenue | $322,000,000 |
Expenses | $245,000,000 |
Income | $77,000,000 |
Taxes | $26,950,000 |
Net Income | $50,050,000 |
Common Shares | 114,516,700 |
EPS | $0.44 |
PE Multiplier | 11 |
Per Share Value | $4.81 |
And there you have it, $4.81/share, almost identical to Friday’s closing price of $4.79/share. But don’t despair, longs. Withstanding a market turn or sales under $350M this valuation is conservative and should mark the bottom. You already know the drug works, now the game is banking on management. So here’s a final thought. If management can reach sales of $475M, keep COGS & expenses at 60%, and in this upward market garner a PE ratio of 15, you have a $13 stock on your hands. Not a bad return.
Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ceuticals-really-worth?source=feed
Vor allem die Kommentare lesen sich sehr interessant...
AVANIR Pharmaceuticals (AVNR, Free Analysis), a pharmaceutical company focused on the central nervous system, could be a potential buyout target following the approval of its Nuedextra drug. The treatment is for a little-known condition called pseudobulbar affect (PBA) in which patients cannot control outbursts of crying or laughter.
With many larger pharmaceuticals facing patent portfolio expirations, the M&A environment for relatively small pharmaceutical companies with newly approved drugs is healthy and growing. In fact, some analysts, like Tom Bustamante from Ludlow Capital believe that the stock could see the $10+ price point in the near future given this M&A potential.
Click Here: Get the Complete AVNR Stock Analysis!
Noch eine kurze Einschätzung...
AVANIR Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AVNR) is one of best movers in pre-market trade this morning, but will it last? There are two opposing schools of thought here for this small cap stock, though not necessarily mutually exclusive. The theory is that if AVNR can just lay a foundation above $5.00, that should keep it there for a while. On the other end of the scale, AVANIR Pharmaceuticals is presumed (by a smaller faction, mind you) to be a short/shorting target above $6.00. Undoubtedly the opinions are those with pump or dump interests, but they've still drawn lines in the sand you may want to watch.
Link: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/...YMI/s/article/view/p/mid/1/id/1002/
The shares of AVANIR Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: AVNR) has nearly doubled on November 1 and closed the trading session at $4.80 after the company reported that its drug Nuedexta (AVP-923) won the FDA approval to treat pseudobulbar affect, a disorder characterized by involuntary, sudden and frequent outbursts of laughing or crying. As of November 9, AVNR was traded in the range of $4.77 amid speculations on how big is the commercial potential of the newly approved drug and eventual takeover from a large pharmaceuticals company.
AVNR is a biopharmaceutical company focused on bringing innovative medicines to patients with central nervous system disorders of high unmet medical need. The FDA recently approved Nuedexta, as the first and only treatment for patients with multiple sclerosis or Lou Gehrig’s disease who develop symptoms known as pseudobulbar affect that causes loss of emotional control. According to the company, Nuedexta represents a combination of quinidine, a generic drug that prevents heart arrhythmia, and dextromethorphan, a cough suppressant.
Pseudobulbar affect concerns an estimated two million Americans suffering from multiple sclerosis, Lou Gehrig’s disease (ALS), stroke and other neurological disorders or trauma that can cause brain lesions.
While there were talks of a potential takeout, the doubts concerning Nuedexta’s potential are strong. Analysts expect Nuedexta to garner peak sales of $350 million to $500 million over the next five years, big enough to interest a large pharma company. However, AVNR reported that it intends to bring the drug to the market alone and become a commercial enterprise. The announced transition would require a good execution, which AVNR obtained during 2010 by hiring Michael McFadden, a recognized managed markets leader with an impressive career with over 20 years of pharmaceutical commercialization experience. Moreover, the company’s latest actions are suggesting that the takeover talks were rather futile.
AVNR plans to launch the drug in the United States in the first half of 2011 and engage about 75 sales representatives for its marketing. The company is also planning to discuss the pricing for Nuedexta by the end of 2010, but estimated that the treatment could cost between $3,000-$5,000 per year.
Going forward, we expect the company to slowly appreciate in anticipations of commercial launch of Nuedexta and driven by analysts’ optimistic estimates. However the first sales reports from 2011 would be critical to have a better understanding of AVNR’s potential.
In addition to Nuedexta, AVNR has conducted a Phase III study of AVP-923 in diabetic peripheral neuropathic (DPN) pain where the primary endpoints were successfully met. The company has also licensed macrophage migration inhibitory factor program to Novartis International Pharmaceutical Ltd. and has sold its anthrax monoclonal antibody program to Emergent BioSolutions. The Company’s first commercialized product, abreva®, is marketed in North America by GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare and is the leading over-the-counter product for the treatment of cold sores.
Link: http://www.themarketfinancial.com/...o-be-proven-in-the-market/101612
ALISO VIEJO, Calif., Nov. 16, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- AVANIR Pharmaceuticals, Inc. today announced that it intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. Jefferies&Company, Inc. is acting as sole book-running manager in the offering and Canaccord Genuity Inc., Wedbush PacGrow Life Sciences, Summer Street Research Partners, and Merriman Capital are acting as co-managers for the offering. In addition Trout Capital LLC is serving as a financial advisor to AVANIR. The offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering.
A registration statement relating to the shares of common stock issued in the offering has been filed with, and declared effective by, the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"). A preliminary prospectus supplement relating to the offering will be filed with the SEC. Copies of the preliminary prospectus supplement relating to these securities may be obtained from Equity Syndicate Prospectus Department, Jefferies&Company, Inc., 520 Madison Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY, 10022, at (877) 547-6340, and at Prospectus_Department@Jefferies.com. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of, these securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
About Forward Looking Statements
Statements in this press release that are not historical facts, including statements that are preceded by, followed by, or that include such words as "estimate," "intend," "anticipate," "believe," "plan," "goal," "expect," "project," or similar statements, may be forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by such statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, AVANIR's ability to successfully complete the proposed offering, as well as other risks that are described in further detail in the preliminary prospectus and our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and from time-to time in other publicly available information regarding the Company. Copies of this information are available from us upon request. We disclaim any intent to update these forward-looking statements.
AVANIR Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
CONTACT: Investors, Eric Benevich, or Brenna Mullen, both of AVANIR
Pharmaceuticals, Inc., +1-949-389-6700, ir@avanir.com
Link: http://www.finanznachrichten.de/...c-offering-of-common-stock-008.htm
Ganz einfach, es werden neue Aktien herausgegeben und damit wird der Kurs verwässert.
Avanir hatte sich neue Aktien bis 75 Mio.$ bereits im Sep 2010 genehmigen lassen, siehe SEC-Filing b2i.api.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EdgarPro.dll
Allerdings steht in dem aktuellen Offering keine Anzahl und kein Preis, siehe hier
b2i.api.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EdgarPro.dll
b2i.api.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EdgarPro.dll
Ich finde es etwas enttäuschend, da angeblich in der Telko nach der Zulassung gesagt wurde, dass keine Kapitalaufnhame nötig sei.
Außerdem sollte man mal auf die Firmen achten, die die Maßnahme durchführen. Das sind ausnahmslos die Firmen, die die Kursziele für Avanir auf 12 - 15$ gehoben haben.
Jefferies&Company - 15$ Kurziel - www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-11/...-price-target-020.htm
Canaccord Genuity Inc. - 10$ Kursziel - www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-11/...-price-target-020.htm
Wedbush - 13$ Kursziel - www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-11/...-price-target-020.htm
Es lebe der Kapitalismus (Achtung - Sarkasmus).
Die Kurziele hatte ich auch angenommen, allerdings ohne Kapitalmaßnahme. Jetzt dürften sich die Kursziele relativieren, allerdings steht ja noch nicht die Höhe der Verwässerung fest.
Auf jeden Fall glaube ich nicht mehr an eine Übernahme, höchstens noch eine feindliche, da Avanir anscheind wirklich vor hat die Vermarktung selber voranzutreiben. Das 1. HJ 2011 wird es zeigen, ob hier wirklich ein Blockbuster-Medi vorliegt.
Die Amis sehen es Positiv...Schauen wir mal...
Avanir Pharmaceuticals Offering Not All Negative
(NEW YORK)--Avanir Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AVNR) announced after the bell Tuesday that the company intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering, but investors may want to consider some points before making any quick decisions.
Offering Size
First off, the Company currently has an effective registration statement from late September for up to $75 million of common, and preferred shares. Now its important to note that this is for $75 million in stock, and not 75 million shares.
Secondly, being that the registration is already effective the company could sell up to $75 million of stock at a set price to the public market, but that does not mean the company will elect to sell the whole $75 million in one shot. Some rumbles after the bell indicate that the offering may be as little as 4.1 million shares, which would provide for minimum dilution to common shareholder. Again, these are just rumors and is still just speculation until confirmed and priced by the company.
Third, the company may elect to set a price for sale at a later date, higher price, or not at all. More then likely a company would not make such a public statement unless an offering was planned, but this doesn't mean today's closing price is the price they plan to sell. The Company could elect to keep this option open and set a price when the stock is at a much high levels.
The main thing is just because a company has an effective statement for up to $75 million doesn't mean they plan on issuing the whole block in one shot and at such a low price. With $43 million of cash on hand the need for an extra $75 million in one offering seems a little unlikely.
Institutional Placement
The Company announced that Jefferies & Company would be acting as sole book-running manager for the offering, and Canaccord Genuity Inc, Wedbush PacGrow Life Sciences, Summer Street Research Partners, and Merriman Capital are acting as co-managers for the offering.
These are investment brokerage firms with established retail and institutional desks. If you take into account institutional ownership has increased in Avanir over the past couple of weeks, the demand for any such offering may be high for their institutional clients. Unlike OTC stocks, which have no means of share distribution and tend to unload right into the open market, Avanir is a NASDAQ listed issue, and will thus be underwritten by several institutions in a syndicate.
It is very well possible that a large portion (60%+) of this offering could be placed through large blocks directly into longer-term hands through their institutional placement desks. The remaining amount of the offering could then be pitched to the firms best clients through their extensive broker retail desks.
Point being that any potential offering will not be just poured into the public market at will, but rather placed in stable and diverse hands to control the offering. Thus is the reason why it's always a positive to be underwritten by an extensive syndication.
Retail Desk Support
The firms underwriting this potential offering all have strong retail trading desks, managed by several hundred, if not thousands of stockbrokers. As with anything on Wall Street, you are only as good as your last deal, and these firms will provide a floor to the stock around their clients offering price, if not higher. All of these firms have price targets on the Company well over $10 per share, and you could now expect these firms to have their retail desks provide support on the phone for the stock going forward.
Buyout Indication
What this offering does indicate is the likelihood of a near-term buyout from a larger pharmaceutical company has now been diminished. This does not mean a buyout on the company still couldn't be something that may happen down the road, but does show the company may be planning to at least get their sales operations in place before making any moves in that direction.
The point being is investors should trade the facts, and not with their hearts. Until actual data on any price or share amount is announced traders may find themselves trading right into this the syndicates hands. The other main fact to come away with is this is not an OTC stock, which tends to unload into the open market, but rather an underwriting through a syndicate of brokerage firms with strong institutional and retail placement desks.
http://wallstreetnewscast.blogspot.com/2010/11/...fering-not-all.html
Link: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56787298
b2i.api.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EdgarPro.dll
Nun ist es raus.
Es sollen erstmal Aktien bis max. 15 Mio.$ ausgegeben werden, allerdings steht der Preis noch nicht fest.
Denke, vorbörslich geht's erstmal runter.
In meinen Augen der richtige Zeitpunkt zum Einstieg...
www.streetinsider.com/Equity+Offerings/...+at+$4.40Share/6113735.html
jetzt versteh ich nix mehr, nun also weit über den 75$ Mio.$ ?!?!?!?!?
Bin ja mal gespannt, wie es weiter geht.
Langfristig, denke ich, trotzdem ein gutes Investment.