Bendingo Mining die Aktie muss man haben 500%
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Es geht vorzeitig los!!!
Bendigo hat noch steuerbegünstigt die Testproduktion aufgenommen.
Weiterhin werden die Ergebnisse der Bodenuntersuchungen am Bendigo Goldfeld voraussichtlich am 23.07.2008 veröffentlicht.
Hier die Originalmeldung:
Bendigo Mining Limited (ASX: BDG) is pleased to announce that trial
processing has commenced at its Kangaroo Flat plant in Bendigo, Victoria.
The Kangaroo Flat plant previously operated for eight months before being
placed on care and maintenance in June 2007 due to limited reserves. During
the past year, the Company has conducted underground exploration from the
Kangaroo Flat Mine targeting the more productive parts of the goldfield,
particularly the Garden Gully line, as well as introducing a visual grade range
estimation method. This work has resulted in the discovery of several new
reefs, the most promising being the Gill reef.
The plant is currently treating low-grade ore which was stockpiled during
mining operations in 2006/07. The first ore parcel from Gill reef is planned to
be processed in late June, with trial gold production ramping up during the
September quarter (July to Sept 2008).
Commenting on trial production, Rod Hanson, Managing Director & CEO of
Bendigo Mining said “It’s worth understanding why we are undertaking trial
mining and what it means? The trial is all about quality rather than quantity.
The purpose of the trial is to allow us to interpret in detail the reef shape and
grade by careful mining, sampling, mapping and processing in order to ensure
that we achieve the best possible result. I am very confident that the outcome
will confirm the quality of Gill reef and of our new approach to grade estimation
at Bendigo.”
Another positive development is the commencement of a regional exploration
program that will be undertaken across the Bendigo Goldfield. Initial drilling
has commenced at the north of the goldfield near Eaglehawk, with the aim of
discovering shallow underground orebodies in areas that were poorly tested by
historic activity. Early results are expected to be available for inclusion in the
June quarterly report, which is planned for release on 23 July 2008.
Allen einen schönen Tag und auf goldene Zeiten!!!
Letzte Kurse Zeit Kurs Volumen
15:22:43 0,200 100000
14:43:34 0,190 26500
14:43:34 0,190 26500
12:32:18 0,189 3600
11:15:16 bB 0,190 13500
10:48:07 bB 0,190 30000
09:02:34 G 0,160 0
Bendigo Mining boosts jobs
Gold company Bendigo Mining is rebuilding its work force, after being forced to shed about 150 jobs last year.
It has employed another 20 people over the past few months to support the resumption of trial processing and more mining.
Processing was put on hold and the work force was reduced from 250 to 80 last year, because of lower than expected yields.
Managing director Rod Hanson says any further expansion will be carefully considered.
"At this stage we've put the number of people on board for what we need for this trial phase," he said.
"Any additional jobs beyond that will depend largely on ongoing exploration success and the opportunities to expand the level of activity."
19.06.08 Martin Siegel - Siegel Investments - http://www.goldhotline.de
Aktuelle Topmeldung: Graham Birch, Manager des erfolgreichen BGF Goldminenfonds erwartet in den nächsten 5 Jahren einen Rückgang der Goldproduktion um 10 bis 15 %. 2007 haben die Goldminen 80 Mio oz abgebaut, aber nur 15 Mio oz neu entdeckt. Dieser Trend kann nur durch einen nachhaltig über 1.000 $/oz ansteigenden Goldpreis umgekehrt werden.
Kommentar: Wir schließen uns der Einschätzung zu 100 % an. Die Schlußfolgerungen sind: Der Goldpreis muß bei unveränderter Nachfragesituation nachhaltig über 1.000 $/oz steigen und Goldminenaktien mit guter Ressourcenbasis dürften in den nächsten Monaten bei einem steigenden Goldpreis extrem gesucht werden, so daß sich hier aktuell bei den gedrückten Preisen sensationell gute Kaufmöglichkeiten ergeben.
Der Goldpreis kann im gestrigen Handel unter größeren Schwankungen von 887 auf 893 $/oz zulegen. Heute morgen schwankt der Goldpreis im Handel in Sydney und Hongkong um das New Yorker Schlußniveau und notiert aktuell mit 893 $/oz um etwa 11 $/oz über dem Vortagesniveau. Die Goldminenaktien entwickeln sich weltweit stabil zeigen aber keinen Vorlauf auf den Goldpreis. Auf Eurobasis kann der Goldpreis gegen den sich abschwächenden Dollars zulegen (aktueller Preis 18.452 Euro/kg, Vortag 18.325 Euro/kg). Langfristig befindet sich der Goldpreis trotz der aktuelle Korrekturphase im Haussetrend in Richtung unserer neuen Zielmarke von 1.300 $/oz. Aufgrund der fundamentalen Verfassung des Goldmarktes halten wir eine Umkehr des langfristigen Aufwärtstrends praktisch für ausgeschlossen. Eine sich zuspitzende Finanzkrise an den Papiergeldmärkten (incl. der dann wertlos verfallenden Zertifikate auf Gold) könnte dabei jederzeit zu einem explosionsartigen Goldpreisanstieg führen.
20.06.08 Martin Siegel - Siegel Investments - http://www.goldhotline.de Der Goldpreis steigt im gestrigen New Yorker Handel zunächst von 887 auf 907 $/oz an, kann die Gewinne im Tagesverlauf aber nicht behaupten und schließt mit 898 $/oz. Heute morgen gibt der Goldpreis im Handel in Sydney erneut leicht nach und notiert aktuell mit 897 $/oz aber immer noch um etwa 4 $/oz über dem Vortagesniveau.
Die Goldminenaktien bleiben weiterhin vernachlässigt und deuten noch keinen nachhaltigen Anstieg des Goldpreises über die 900 $/oz-Marke an. Auf Eurobasis kann der Goldpreis bei einem gleichzeitigen Anstieg des Dollars deutlich zulegen (aktueller Preis 18.597 Euro/kg, Vortag 18.452 Euro/kg). Langfristig befindet sich der Goldpreis trotz der aktuelle Korrekturphase im Haussetrend in Richtung unserer neuen Zielmarke von 1.300 $/oz. Aufgrund der fundamentalen Verfassung des Goldmarktes halten wir eine Umkehr des langfristigen Aufwärtstrends praktisch für ausgeschlossen. Eine sich zuspitzende Finanzkrise an den Papiergeldmärkten (incl. der dann wertlos verfallenden Zertifikate auf Gold) könnte dabei jederzeit zu einem explosionsartigen Goldpreisanstieg führen. Der Silberpreis kann im gestrigen New Yorker Handel zunächst auf 17,70 $/oz zulegen, gibt die Gewinne jedoch wieder ab (aktueller Preis 17,34 $/oz, Vortag 17,40 $/oz). Platin fällt zurück (aktueller Preis 2.055 $/oz, Vortag 2.090 $/oz), Palladium kann die starken Gewinne der Vortage erneut ausbauen (aktueller Preis 469 $/oz, Vortag 466 $/oz). Die Basismetalle können die Gewinne des Vortages nicht halten und gegen zwischen 1 und 2 % nach. Der New Yorker xau-Goldminenindex gibt nach stärkeren Gewinnen im Handelsverlauf um 0,8 % oder 1,4 auf 178,6 Punkte nach. Bei den Standardwerten verliert Iamgold 1,8 %. Bei den kleineren Werten fallen Golden Star 4,7 %, Novagold 4,0 %, Northgate 3,8 % und Gabriel 3,5 %. Gegen den Trend erholen sich Yukon-Nevada 6,3 % und Stillwater 5,0 %. Bei den Silberwerten verbessert sich Coeur d’Alene 2,5 %. Hecla gibt 2,9 % ab. Die südafrikanischen Werte zeigen sich im New Yorker Handel nachgebend. DRD Gold verlieren 4,0 % und Anglogold 2,4 %. Die australischen Goldaktien entwickeln sich heute morgen erneut uneinheitlich mit einer nachgebenden Tendenz. Bei den Produzenten verliert Crescent 5,3 %. Tanami können 9,7 %, Norton 8,0 % und Troy 6,8 % zulegen. Bei den Explorationswerten fallen Austindo 19,1 % (Vortag -16,0 %), A 1 Minerals 8,0 %, Adamus 6,8 % und Regis 6,4 %. Range können 25,8 %, Westonia 7,8 % und Integra 6,4 % zulegen. Bei den Basismetallwerten geben Jabiru 7,6 %, Oxiana 6,6 % und Gindalbie 6,0 % nach.
In early 2007 Bendigo Mining went from being the vanguard for a great gold revival in the Australian state of Victoria to a millstone when its underperformance saw mining and processing in jeopardy and some corporate heads rolled. A half year financial report today showed the company was getting back on firm ground.
Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Friday , 22 Feb 2008
PERTH -
Bendigo Mining Ltd (ASX: BDG) declared an gross loss for the December 2007 half year of $A17,334 ($US15,964), well below the market expectations of a year ago after the company had said it would have to halt existing mining operations, phase out production and get back into exploration to find better grade mining zones.
At that time the company, which had just recommissioned mining on the famous Bendigo goldfield - one of Australia's biggest historical gold producing fields - said it may have to write down assets by between $A90-210 M ($US82.9-193.4 M).
Under essentially a new management broom led by Rod Hanson as new chief executive, Bendigo moved away from the Sheepshead-Deborah line, which had been less intensely mined in the past and focused on the Garden Gully line.
By early this year the company had discovered the virginal Gill Reef within the Garden Gully line, and then announced discovery of the high grade Gordon Reef.
The company said today that future planned activities will take in:
Infill drilling of the Gill Reef.
Complete development to intersect the Gill Reef by the end of the current quarter.
Aim to start trial mining on a "modest scale" by June and get into trial production in the second half of 2008.
Continue exploration of underground targets.
Drill test regional targets in the field north and west of the established goldfield.
The one saving grace for Bendigo Gold when it announced its operational difficulties was that it, through substantial capital raisings over the previous year, still had $A66 M ($US60.78 M) in the bank and creditors of $A16M. Today's report showed it still had $A58.121M ($US53.529M) in cash.
Gold poppets up its head again
18/06/2008 9:32:00 AMAFTER a year lying idle, Bendigo Mining will kick-start its Kangaroo Flat mine processing plant, the next step before commercial production cranks up again.
Ore from the newly discovered Gill Reef will be processed and tested this month as the miner looks to restart gold production it scaled back early last year.
The trial processing and testing of ore from Bendigo Mining’s works including from the newly discovered Gill Reef will begin this month, marking the next stage in the company’s move back to the gold producing operations it scaled down in early 2007.
The company told the Stock Exchange yesterday it planned to have the first results from the Gill Reef available for next month’s quarterly report and it expected gold production to be ramped up during the September quarter.
Bendigo Mining chief executive Rod Hanson said the processing plant had been fired up and the company has taken on another 20 employees - eight in the plant and 12 in the mine Mr Hanson said while samples from the Gill Reef were encouraging, showing positive gold indicators, the processing trial sought to establish more accurate details about the reef shape and grade.
“It’s all about the quality of the reef, so, in regard to the plan we announced last year, this is just one more box we are ticking.’’
Mr Hanson said the rising international price of gold - from $80 an ounce to up to $950 - boosted the potential profitability of the mine, but this was offset by other cost hikes, including fuel and explosives costs.
Since the company ceased production last year, Bendigo Mining has conducted underground tests of the Kangaroo Flat Mine, targeting the more productive parts of the goldfield particularly along the Garden Gully line and introducing a visual estimation method that identified several new reefs, including the Gill Reef.
Goldförderung: Bekannter Fondsmanager rechnet mit Rückgang
Graham Birch, der Manager des erfolgreichen BGF Goldminenfonds erwartet in den nächsten 5 Jahren einen Rückgang der Goldförderung um 10-15%. 2007 haben Goldminen weltweit 80 Mio. Unzen abgebaut, aber nur 15 Mio. Unzen entdeckt. Ähnlich wie am Ölmarkt klafft die Schere zwischen Neufunden und Förderung immer weiter auseinander. Birch rechnet damit, dass der Goldpreis daher nachhaltig über die Marke von 1000 Dollar pro Unze ansteigen wird.
(© BörseGo AG 2008 - http://www.boerse-go.de, Autor: Stanzl Jochen, Redakteur)
Das Gill Reef ist das derzeit wichtigste Explorationsziel und konnte bislang auf einer Länge von 720 Metern nachgewiesen werden. Der im Abbau erwartete Goldgehalt liegt zwischen 8 und 12 g/t. Das kürzlich entdeckte hochgradige Dale Reef ist als zweiter Erzkörper für einen Probeabbau vorgesehen.
Bendigo ist eines der größten australischen Goldfelder und hat eine historische Produktion von 22 Mio oz. Über 11 Mio oz Ressourcen werden in den Gebieten noch vermutet, aber seit einigen Monaten nicht mehr von Bendigo ausgewiesen. Nach der gescheiterten Produktionsaufnahme macht Bendigo überhaupt keine Reserven- und Ressourcenschätzungen mehr. Anlagen mit einer Verarbeitungskapazität von jährlich 200.000 oz sind einsatzbereit vorhanden.
Am 31.12.07 (30.07.07) stand einem Cashbestand von 58,1 Mio. A$ (71,8 Mio. A$) eine gesamte Kreditbelastung von 7,7 Mio. A$ (12,3 Mio. A$) gegenüber. Zum 31.03.08 fiel der Cashbestand auf 53,0 Mio. A$ zurück. St Barbara (AUS) hält 10% der Aktien als Tradingposition.
Beurteilung:
In unserer Beurteilung vom 27.09.06 haben wir auf die über 10-jährige Mißerfolgsgeschichte und die hohen Risiken in Bendigo hingewiesen. Auch wenn die Gesellschaft derzeit keine Reserven und Ressourcen ausweist, sind die Gebiete, in denen 10% der historischen australischen Produktion gewonnen wurden, strategisch interessant.
Sollte Bendigo eine jährliche Goldproduktion von 200.000 oz bei einer Gewinnspanne von 200 A$/oz umsetzen können, würde das KGV auf 3,5 zurückfallen. Der Cashbestand von 53,0 Mio. A$ sichert die Gesellschaft für die nächsten Jahre gut ab. Bendigo bleibt eine spekulative, langfristig angelegte Kaufposition.
Empfehlung:
Unter 0,40 A$ kaufen, aktueller Kurs 0,285 A$, Kursziel 1,00 A$. Bendigo wird auch in Frankfurt und München notiert (vgl. Kaufempfehlung vom 17.03.08 bei 0,32 A$).
Australien
Aktuell
0,27 AUD
Zeit
30.06.08 08:11
Diff. Vortag
-1,82 %
Tages-Vol.
398.344,10
Gehandelte Stück
1,5 Mio.
Geld
0,265
Brief
0,27
Zeit
30.06.08 08:10
Spread
1,852%
Geld Stk.
829.285 !!!
Brief Stk.
6.037
Schluss Vortag
0,275
Eröffnung
0,275
Hoch
0,285
Tief
0,265
52W Hoch
0,42
52W Tief
0,27
Citigroup suggests that inflation and the fabrication outlook favor gold.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 30 Jun 2008
RENO, NV -
Citigroup forecasts that "gold is likely to regain $1,000/oz by end-08 and to work higher through 2009-2010."
In their recent Gold Commodity Update, Citigroup metals analysts John H. Hill and Graham Wark also predicted that "longer term, we believe that gold is capable of doubling or tripling from current levels."
The Citi global metals forecasts have an upward bias, at $906/$950/1000 average in 2008/09/10.
The analysts said "secular and seasonal factors favor gold" during the second half of this year. "We remain positive on gold, based on macro and supply/demand factors. The forces that have propelled gold for 5 years are firmly in place."
During the second quarter of this year, gold has averaged $896/oz, up 34% from the same quarter of 2007 and down 3% from the first quarter of this year. "Following a series of downside fundamental tests gold appears to have found a floor, and quietly climbed back to $917/oz."
"Despite extensive hand-wringing, the ‘floor in the dollar' has inflicted minimal damage," the analysts noted. "We believe the drivers of the gold bull market remain intact, heading into a favorable period."
"We see gold as well-positioned heading into Autumn, when fabrication tends to heighten the market," they added.
Nevertheless, Hill and Wark warned, "It will be important for seasonal/volatility dampened fabrication demand to recover, before gold can move higher." However, they added," Longer term, we would not be surprised to see gold double from current levels as the global policy prescriptions for the credit crunch remain powerfully and uniformly re-flationary."
Meanwhile, Citicorp suggested that slow de-hedging is unlikely to result in a gold market surplus, although they said it remains a key question. "We believe that the combination of wealth creation in China, petrodollars in Russia/Mid-East, and ETF inflows is likely to absorb possible additional ‘supply' of 200-300 TPY," the analysts advised.
In the meantime, "real interest rates are still strongly negative, inherently favoring hard assets and gold," Citigroup noted.
In their analysis Citigroup found that the principal Exchange Traded Funds hold 954 tonnes of gold bullion valued at US$24 billion, down 4% from peaks during the first quarter of this year. Total volume is equivalent to about 130 days of mine supply. The analysts noted that average daily gold ETF trading value was about $900 million, "more than that of Newmont and Barrick combined."
ETF holdings are up 5% or 39 tonnes from trough levels at the end of May amid profit-taking after $1,000, according to Citigroup.
"Gold correlations are evolving," the analysts noted. "Adherent owners of gold as portfolio insurance should be delighted in recent weeks as increasingly negative is being established between gold and the S&P 500. A strong positive correlation with oil has prevailed year-to-date. The negative correlation with dollar remains a fixture."
Citigroup's analysis also revealed that "gold shares have stalled as investors have flocked to physical bullion or FRF-rich bulk/base miners."
"Disappointingly, gold equities remain near levels seen when the gold was in the low $700s," the analysts determined. "On the other hand, cash flow should be strong with gold above $900/oz.
"The move in gold has been perhaps too sharp for the equities," the analysts said. "During a financial crisis, safe haven demand favors the simplicity of bullion."
Citigroup's" buy-rated" gold picks include Barrick, Peter Hambro, Lihir, and Newmont. However, the analysts cautioned, the second quarter is "likely muted due to flat gold amid energy/input escalation."
Led by Goldcorp, trading at record levels, listed gold stocks run hard and move sharply back up the global resources performance ladder.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wednesday , 02 Jul 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
Most listed gold stocks continued to surge on Tuesday as the dollar bullion price rose to multi month highs above $940 an ounce. Gold bullion investors appear to be reasserting the metal once again as a high-beta investment, a characteristic shared in particular with silver and agricultural futures, commodities that tend to outperform during times of crisis, or perceived crisis.
On Tuesday gold bullion, and other precious metals prices, were again lifted by a weaker dollar, growing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, and renewed concerns over roaring inflation as energy futures continued to trade at or close to record highs. Long dated NYMEX crude oil hit fresh records, along with benchmark Appalachian coal futures. Selected agricultural futures such as soybeans and oats were also trading at or around record highs, while cocoa set new records.
A number of wider-based commodity indices such as the Reuters/Jefferies CRB and S&P GSCI Enhanced traded at record highs as well, as investors continued to rotate investments into commodities and commodity proxies as perceived hedges against inflation, as cost-push factors from energy prices continued to dim the outlook for economic and profits performance across the world. While dollar crude oil prices have risen by around 110% in the past year, coal prices, such as the Appalachian contract, are up by 181%.
The global listed gold sector was led upwards by Goldcorp, which recently renewed its leadership of the Tier I gold grouping, followed by Newmont. South African gold counters continued to lag, despite recent sharp recoveries, as cost, reliability and political concerns continued to mount in southern Africa. Chinese gold stocks also remained relatively subdued, in line with the ongoing severe correction to stock markets in that country, where wider market indices have halved from bubble-type highs. Goldcorp traded at fresh record highs on Tuesday.
The recent lift in dollar gold bullion continues to leave the metal price well below the record $1,032.75 an ounce seen in early March, when worries over the collapse of Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns were at highs. The recent lift in prices for most listed gold stocks, however, has pushed the global sector's performance back into respectable territory. With the dollar stuck in no man's land, and uncertainty over the future of US interest rates, gold is likely to continue benefiting from high beta characteristics for the time being.
Some so-called laggards in the commodity supercycle - potash, iron ore, coal and the mining majors - continue to outrank gold stocks in rankings for 12-month returns from listed names. Platinum stocks, driven by uncontroversial fundamentals, are now only marginally outperforming gold stocks over the past year.
Oil stocks continue to disappoint, with investors apparently preferring to invest in energy futures, or proxies for futures, such as commodity indices and exchange traded funds. This is echoed to some extent in the gold arena, where gold ETFs, which hold physical bullion, continue to outperform gold stocks, but to nowhere the same extent as oil futures are outperforming listed oil stocks.
Across the broader resources sector, the most disappointing performance has come from listed base metals stocks, despite the two biggest base metals, copper and aluminium, trading close to record highs on Tuesday. Tin, the smallest base metal, has performed well on tight supply factors pertaining to Chinese and Indonesian miners. Listed uranium and diamonds stocks remain heavily out of favour.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/...oid=55977&sn=Detail
By Neil Charnock
Jul 1 2008 11:15AM
www.goldoz.com.au
Mid and small sized Australian resource stocks have been sold down to unrealistic levels – scary to even some sophisticated investors who have contacted me lately. As mentioned by one – “becoming irrational cheap, as if they go bankrupt”. This asks the question – are they going bankrupt? Large resource companies have fared much better showing the underlying strength of resource demand. This article takes a look at the gold sector Down Under, with emphasis on the producers and emerging producers, and exposes an area of value possibly greater than any market currently on offer.
Firstly let us examine the question of bankruptcy – is this possible? Large scale low grade mines will show some distress in their balance sheets at the next reporting period because diesel is a significant cost in moving all that dirt and rock. Companies that shift their ore over long distances will also register higher costs. Therefore bulk low grade operations that operate in the higher quartile cost range will be under pressure. Any of these companies with high debt levels and or hedge books under water would be under great duress.
Other areas of increasing cost pressures have slowed including interests rates and wages growth. The Australian dollar has consolidated and may be forming a large rising wedge pattern – in any case commodities are still strong thanks to robust demand and constrained growth of supply. This is a global phenomena caused by rising living standards across Asia.
Most large deposits mined in bulk tend to be lower cost however and hedging has been reduced significantly during the last two – three years by large and small operators alike. This has been a global factor as well thanks to rising gold prices and Australia has been a party to this trend with most of our miners reducing or eliminating hedge books in recent times.
There is of course another category to look at here that will not be “going to the wall”(bankruptcy) any time soon either. Underground gold miners that mill their high grade ore in close proximity to their mines, are mining at highly viable price levels. They shift lower quantities of ore so their costs are not greatly influenced by rising oil costs.
One CFO (Chief Financial Officer of a high grade underground gold operation) I spoke to recently confirmed that their diesel cost represented only 4% of their mining costs at the inflated fuel price levels confirming this point. I provide links to analysis on two gold stocks at the bottom of this article which fit this description and there are many more. Gold has stayed strong in AUD terms with the current price at $AUD962.87 as I write this piece – silver is trading at $AUD18.26. Mining margins are robust at these levels for most mines – where debt levels are low it is hard to imagine these companies going bankrupt.
I am growing more confident that we are seeing the bottom now in many ASX resource and PM stocks and that market sentiment is reaching its own agonising bottom at the same time. I could not say the same for other market sectors even after heavy corrections – earnings will continue to drop as disposable incomes drop and this will bite into discretionary spending.
Credit contraction (global) will continue to bite into financials and various sectors. This will still weigh on the precious metal stocks that need to raise capital forcing a prolonged bottom process over the coming months. Yet, just like in Canada recently, the odd stock in Australia is beginning to rally from over sold levels based on company news and fundamentals – these are the current opportunity.
There is tremendous leverage at this level – I am picking off highly oversold stocks and pulling profits which are taken before I reinvest in the next play. Of course oil stocks have been fun and gas from coal has paid off in strong share runs. Australia has been in tax loss selling to the end of June and has been presenting delicious pickings in this climate at this time.
Offshore investors have the exchange rate to consider and I leave this evaluation up to you. Should the Aussie dollar turn down then it is in the interests of offshore investors to hold off until we see corrections to the down side – this would offer a potential currency gain as an additional bonus.
What about the base metal resource sector and related stocks? Again - I personally believe we will now grind along during a multi-week (a few months perhaps) bottom process and I look to the technicals for guidance at this time because the fundamentals are vastly out of whack. I say this because I see companies selling far below real asset levels (replacement cost) and in some cases below cash levels – I have not seen this since 2001. Here is a chart of our emerging gold producers confirming vastly oversold levels – especially when one considers the high gold price.
Junior gold explorers have been treated with the same disrespect due to poor investor sentiment. Because the juniors tend to follow last in a trend reversal I shall be concentrating on opportunities on a company specific nature in the emerging producers and producers categories. It is worth a look at the Producers chart below as well to get the picture on price levels and this should be viewed against a strong AUD gold price environment.
There you have it – thanks to our friends at Sharelynx.com – thanks Nick. The pictures above display my story visually and these charts get updated daily in my web site on a free page titled Gold Index Charts and these charts are not available via the ASX – many more are available for reasonable cost at Nicks site.
Now back to the gold and diversified resource equities Down Under. Why will they be any different when equities are out of favour and we have seen nothing but down side so far during these conditions? Lets keep it simple so as not to confuse things.
Big Picture Again – Update: Despite efforts to cool the overheating economy, the officially recorded Chinese GDP growth rate was 11.4% in 2007. This has been revised up even in the face of the US slow down. The China story will not die despite the economic slump in the USA and despite their inflation concerns. The other emerging economies and the resource economies will continue to boom or at minimum do well as a result.
They have been and are gradually becoming more independent from the USA because they have increasing internal demand and increasing trade with each other. The banking industry has world wide reach and can only grow via debt growth in Asia – without major wages growth in the West we are basically tapped out. Can the “disinterest in credit” culture be changed in the East in order to perpetuate global monetary growth? I think so because it fits with human nature to want more.
The current global strength, if it can be continued, will also eventually allow the USA to recover more quickly than they could have otherwise. That is not to say there is a long task and a major rebuild necessary in the USA as it restructures its economy back towards production and relative balance – this could take a decade or more depending on a number of factors. If the opportunity to move back to a production based economy is not seized over the coming years with the aid of a weak USD I will be very surprised. Investment decisions require a shorter time frame however so for now I analyse current conditions.
Masters like Jim Rogers, the investment guru, have taken great interest in China, Jim apparently even moved to Hong Kong to get close to the action and therefore takes a longer term view that this will continue. Money is being added to the system at an alarming rate which offers opportunity.
From late 2007 to up until now we see equities viewed as a high risk asset class along with real estate and get hammered on mass. Capital flows poured into gold and bonds and cash. Real estate continues to look weak however some resource and many precious metal equities are showing signs of hope. The hope is we have reached rock bottom and are carving massive base formations in these companies. Examples of emerging underground gold operators are provided below.
Good trading / investing.
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Gold: Mögliches Kaufsignal steht unmittelbar bevor
Die Märkte mussten in der letzten Woche eine Fehlentscheidung der Fed verarbeiten. Die amerikanischen Geldpolitiker hatten zwar vor Inflationsgefahren gewarnt, aber nicht den Mut, deswegen die Zinsen anzuheben, wegen der Konjunkturschwäche und der notorischen Krise der Banken. Das schickte den Dollar auf Talfahrt und trieb im gewohnten Gegenzug Ölpreis und andere Rohstoffkosten in die Höhe. Die Tatsache, dass sich der Preis des Energieträgers auf neue Rekorde schraubt, brachte die Aktienmärkte ins Rutschen.
Einige Investoren kauften das Gold, um sich gegen mögliche Pleiten bei Daimler abzusichern. Obwohl die Gerüchte aus der Luft gegriffen schienen, wurde das Gold als Absicherungsinstrument gekauft. Auch wurde gemunkelt, die russische Zentralbank wolle Schweizer Franken gegen US-Dollar tauschen. Beide Nachrichten beleuchten, dass Investments sichere Häfen ansteuern. Das Gold verteuerte sich um 3,3% auf 932,30 Dollar pro Feinunze.
Gold: Mögliches Kaufsignal steht unmittelbar bevor
Im Lichte der immensen Unsicherheit an den Kapitalmärkten schenken Marktteilnehmer Angebots- und Nachfragestatistiken wenig Beachtung. Der Goldmarkt wendet sich mehr und mehr der Dollar- und Ölentwicklung zu, und ignoriert die negativen Auswirkungen steigender Preise auf die indische Schmucknachfrage. Trübe sich der Ausblick für die US-Konjunktur weiter ein, beschleunige dies die Goldnachfrage als sicherer Hafen. Auch im Zuge einer weiteren Dollarschwächung durch steigende Ölpreise besteht das Potenzial für eine Aufwertung des Goldes. Bei Überschreiten der Widerstandsmarke von 933 Dollar sieht Harald Weygand, Head of Trading bei Godmode-Trader.de, ein Kaufsignal. Stiegen die Notierungen per Wochenschlusskursbasis über die Marke von 933 Dollar an, eröffne sich Aufwärtspotenzial bis 1030 Dollar.
Platin: Preissprünge nicht ausgeschlossen
Auf Seiten von Platin fand eine Studie der CPM Group Beachtung. Die Analysten prognostizieren für dieses Jahr einen Platinüberschuss von geringen 32,000 Unzen, nach 358,000 Unzen in 2007 und 777,000 Unzen in 2006. ETF-Käufer spielen dabei eine wichtige Rolle, denn seit Jahresbeginn kauften sie 202,126 Unzen Platin. Da zahlreiche ETFs ihre Vermögenseinlagen physisch besichern, führen ETF-Käufe der Anleger zu einer tatsächlichen Verknappung des Edelmetalls. Das ist eine Art selbst erfüllende Prophezeiung. Anleger kaufen Platin-ETFs, um auf steigende Preise zu spekulieren, und führen diese zum großen Teil selbst herbei. Auf der Seite der Platinförderung spielen Probleme bei der Stromerzeugung in Südafrika eine große Rolle. Die Förderung soll laut CPM in diesem Jahr in Südafrika um 3,3% auf 168,000 Unzen fallen, einige Marktbeobachter schließen aber selbst Einbrüche um 10-12% nicht aus. Angesichts dieser Probleme halten die Analysten merkliche Preissprünge für möglich. Ganz im Gegensatz zu Gold dürften beim Platin die Nachrichten um die Entwicklung der Produktion den Preis maßgeblich beeinflussen. Grund hierfür ist die relativ höhere Knappheit des Platins im Vergleich zum Gold.
Quelle: Rohstoff-Report
http://www.bmnl.com.au/documents/presentations/BML_05JUL07.pdf
Alleine der Kassenbestand von gut 50 Millionen AUS Dollar reichen aus um gut und gerne weiter 2 Jahre zu produzieren.
Bendigo hat zum augenblicklichen Stand einen Gewinn von gut 600 USD die Feinunze, bei Kosten von ca. 2 Mio USD im Quartal.
Was heißt das für uns? Ca. 1100 Feinunzen im Monat und der break even Punkt ist erreicht. 1100 Feinunzen sind in etwa 32 Kilogramm Gold...
...die holen wir zwei mit dem Spaten und der Picke heraus wenn wir uns an das 22 Kilo / Tonne oder an das 600 Gramm / Tonne Reef begeben.
Du glaubst doch bitte nicht im Ernst, das die Lehrerpensionkasse von Ohio oder andere Institutionelle in dem Wert geblieben wären wenn nicht...
Warum eine bekannte amerikanische Bank vor fast gut einem Jahr die große Position aufgelöst hat, wissen wir doch heute im Nachhinein alle am Besten. Wie hieß die Bank noch gleich? "Klick"
Natürlich bleibt immer ein Restrisiko und bei einem "Jungproduzenten" erst Recht. Meine größte Sorge ist eine mögliche Übernahme durch St. Barbara...
Dann werden wir hier auf 50% Basis abgespeist und sind raus...aber ich möchte nicht den Teufel an die Wand malen.
So wie es im Moment läuft und wie sich die Aktie vom Kurs her in AUS verhält, ist alles wie ich es heute Morgen kurz geschrieben habe, im grünen Bereich !!!
Die Frage ist nur wie durchgängig sind diese in den Reef´s? Schätze es sind nur Anomalien aber immerhin....sind auch paar 1000 Unzen mehr.
Trotzdem ist Bendigo auch bei 7 Gramm pro Tonne Quarzgestein im Schnitt rentabel.
Der momentane Wert (fair Value) des Unternehmens als Developer liegt bei errechneten 36 - 40 AUS Cent. Die Bendigo Internetseite ist so transparent, dass es eine Berechnung möglich macht.
Jetzt als "Testproduzent" (hat steuerliche Gründe) wird man erst mit Bekanntgabe der "Testproduktion" aus Juni 2008, frühestens im zweiten Quartalsbericht 2008, das Unternehmen besser einwerten können. Vermutlich, falls nicht eine Seifenoper gespielt wird (Übernahme durch St.Barbara), zum Vorteil aller Aktionäre, denn das vorliegende Potenzial ist gewaltig! Warum wurden ansonsten die Optionen, ausgerechnet jetzt nach dem ersten Testmonat ausgeübt?
Ich kann mich hier nur wiederholen und allen Investierten oder Interessierten empfehlen, notfalls mit dem Google Übersetzer, sich in die Bendigo Seiten einzulesen!!!
http://www.bmnl.com.au/
