Sensationelle Ergebnisse gestern und der Kurs macht fast Nichts, dank dem krassen Fehlurteil von Richterin Du.....
Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN)EQUITY RESEARCHMay 14, 2020Price: $7.42Price Target: $35.00Rating: OverweightKey Statistics:SymbolNASDAQ: AMRN52-Week Range$3.95 - $26.12Market Cap (M)2,860.3ADV (3 mo)15,538,966Shares Out (M)385.5Research Analysts:Louise Chen212-915-1794Louise.Chen@cantor.comBrandon Folkes, CFA212-294-8081Brandon.Folkes@cantor.comJennifer Kim212-829-4860Jennifer.Kim@cantor.comCarvey Leung212-915-1917Carvey.Leung@cantor.comOne-Year Price History3025201510505/1908/1911/1902/2005/20AMRNCreated by BlueMatrixQuick TakeSteady Stream of Positive Data Supporting VascepaDoesn't Skip a BeatTakeawaysnToday (5/14), AMRN announced data from the REDUCE-IT study presented byBenjamin E. Peterson, M.D., Brigham and Women’s Hospital Heart & VascularCenter and Harvard Medical School, at the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography& Interventions 2020 Scientific Sessions. The study showed that administrationof 4g/day of Vascepa resulted in a significant 34% reduction in first coronaryrevascularizations versus placebo (p<0.0001). Similar reductions of 36% wereobserved in total, or first and subsequent, revascularizations (p<0.0001). These datasupport our OW rating on the stock and our belief that the peak sales potential ofVascepa is still underappreciated. Please see here for the post hoc analyses.nCoronary revascularization procedures are invasive, carry multiple risks, and can havesignificant direct and indirect costs. Patients with elevated triglycerides, despite statintherapy, have increased risk for ischemic events, including coronary revascularizations.These procedures, whether pre-scheduled or performed in an emergency, often resultin additional time spent in a healthcare setting.nThe analyses from the REDUCE-IT study included several types of coronaryrevascularization events in statin-treated patients with persistent elevatedtriglycerides (135-499mg/dL), who also had either cardiovascular disease or diabetesand additional cardiovascular risk factors. Prespecified tertiary endpoint analysesshowed that times to first revascularization events were significantly reduced byVascepa versus placebo across subtypes of intervention, including urgent, emergent,and elective revascularizations, which were reduced by 34% (p<0.0001), 38% (p=0.02),and 32% (p<0.0001), respectively. In post hoc analyses, Vascepa significantly reducedpercutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) by 32% (p<0.0001) and coronary arterybypass grafting (CABG) by 39% relative to placebo (p=0.0005).nREDUCE-IT was not specifically powered to examine individual cardiovascularendpoints; therefore, p-values presented for these revascularization analyses arenominal and exploratory with no adjustment for multiple comparisons. In addition,coronary revascularization as an endpoint can sometimes be considered subjective;however, these endpoints were adjudicated by an independent, blinded clinicalendpoint committee. Results from the total coronary revascularization eventsanalyses are consistent across the various recurrent event statistical models andare also consistent with the first coronary revascularization events results. Together,the REDUCE-IT first and total coronary revascularization events results support therobustness and consistency of the clinical benefit of Vascepa therapy in reducingcoronary revascularization.Investment ThesisWe reaffirm our OW rating and think the peak sales potential of Vascepa isunderappreciated. Therefore, upward earnings revisions to levels not reflected in FactSetconsensus expectations should drive AMRN shares higher.The Disclosure Section may be found on pages 3 - 4.
ValuationWe continue to use a blend of DCF and multiples (EV/EBITDA) analysis to get to our 12-month price target of $35.RisksAmarin Corporation is a commercial-stage company, although it is still involved in theclinical pathway to expand the label for its currently approved product. As such, Amarinis subject to certain risks.Regulatory Risk: Actual clinical results and the FDA's conclusions may deviate fromexpectations. Many of our model assumptions are based on incomplete clinical data.Ultimately, it is the regulatory bodies of the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) andEuropean Medicines Agency (EMA) that will determine the approval process of the clinicalfind