Banken in der Eurozone

Financial Times: sell banks on Friday and go away - Drop in Deutsche Bank shares is more likely noise than a signal of danger ahead
https://t.co/gbyBq5SWgT  

Der europäische Bankenindex Stoxx 600 Banks sank um 2,5 Prozent, kein einziger Banktitel konnte sich an diesem Freitag in die Pluszone retten. "Manche wollen über das Wochenende offenbar nicht auf dem falschen Fuß erwischt werden"
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/...k-boerse-verluste-1.5775296

Wie ein Fondsmanager das letzte Finanzkrisen-Wochende erlebt hat
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...rchschritten-381890?page=63#jumppos1596  

Short sellers make $100 mln betting against Deutsche Bank
https://www.reuters.com/markets/...e-bank-two-weeks-ortex-2023-03-24/  

CoCo-Anleihen sind im Verhältnis zu Aktien historisch billig
https://www.dws.com/globalassets/_-graphics/...art_de.png?v=243673644
https://www.dws.com/de-de/insights/cio-view/...-of-the-week-20230324/  

EBA Consolutation: Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB): The Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) on the assessment methodology under which competent authorities verify an institution’s compliance with the internal models under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) rules are part of of the EBA roadmap for the new market and counterparty credit risk approaches. These RTS ensure clarity on the assessment performed by competent authorities, so as to guide the implementation of FRTB internal models in EU. In particular, these draft RTS set out a framework for competent authorities to assess these requirements and focus on three main aspects: governance, the internal risk-measurement model - covering the expected shortfall, and the stress scenario risk measure -  and the internal default risk model.

Consultation Paper on draft RTS on the assessment methodology under which competent authorities verify an institution’s compliance with the internal model approach
https://www.eba.europa.eu/regulation-and-policy/...nce-internal-model  

The crisis ahead: Fed officials meet in shadow of banking crisis. Fund managers worry systemic credit crunch could crash US markets. The most likely source of a credit event, according to the fund managers, is shadow banking – or non-bank financial institutions that are not subject to regulation including hedge funds, private equity funds, investment banks and mortgage lenders. Many analysts worry that authorities may soon discover they have even less control and comprehension of the non-bank financial sector than they anticipated as gloomy clouds gather over the global financial system. The amount of the correction is impossible to forecast because “shadows” do not promote openness
https://www.worldfinance.com/special-reports/...ead-of-shadow-banking
Since the global financial crisis, higher risk or more complex lending or trading moved into the opaque and less regulated shadow banking system -- non-bank financial institutions which include insurance companies, pension funds, mutual or hedge funds, family offices and speciality financiers. The Bank of International Settlements estimates its size at $227 trillion as at 2021, almost half the size of the global financial sector up from 42 percent in 2008.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/web-only/2023/...buried-2559133.html
The dangerous growth of shadow banking: Since the global financial crisis, regulators have restricted the lending abilities of traditional banks, leaving the riskier bits to non-bank financial institutions. The policy may have gravely backfired
https://www.worldfinance.com/special-reports/...ead-of-shadow-banking  

Shadow Banking System: Definition, Examples, and How It Works: Examples of shadow banks or financial intermediaries not subject to regulation include hedge funds, private equity funds, mortgage lenders, and even large investment banks. The shadow banking system can also refer to unregulated activities by regulated institutions, which include financial instruments like credit default swaps.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow-banking-system.asp
Crash Landing 2.0? Traditional banks are deeply embedded in the shadow banking sector through trading relationships, custody and clearing (packaged as prime broking services). Some are minority investors in these off-balance-sheet vehicles as well arrangers of capital. Banks also provide leverage, often using derivative products or other off-balance sheet structures. Alternatively, they provide direct funding – ‘lending to the lender’- frequently backed by collateral. As the collapse of hedge fund Archegos illustrated, the extent to which it eliminates risk is debatable.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/...-2-the-usual-suspects.html
Commercial property loans are joining deposit flight and bond portfolios as the biggest perceived risk. Fears mount that further retreat from real estate lending could lead to wider credit crunch.
https://www.ft.com/content/c172f9f4-0175-40ea-bcb5-01026dddf8ee  

Commercial property loans are joining deposit flight and bond portfolios as the biggest perceived risk. Fears mount that further retreat from real estate lending could lead to wider credit crunch.
https://www.ft.com/content/c172f9f4-0175-40ea-bcb5-01026dddf8ee
Banks with less than $250bn in assets make about 80 per cent of commercial real estate loans, according to economists at Goldman Sachs, along with 60 per cent of residential real estate loans and half of commercial & industrial loans.
https://www.ft.com/content/945f754b-6323-4ad1-8b8c-76ef8d2e0a6a  

Die Rettungsaktionen der Staaten und der Vertrauensverlust an den Märkten zeigen, wie krisenanfällig das Bankensystem nach wie vor ist.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...n-nicht-enden-/29053402.html  

Commercial Real Estate Is The Next Shoe To Drop
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...rcial-real-estate-next-shoe-drop  

Am Freitag geriet die Deutsche Bank in Turbulenzen. Gerüchten zufolge bezog die Bank Liquidität von der US-Notenbank. Demnach hat die FED 60 Millarden Dollar an Foreign Repo Facility an eine ausländische Bank überwiesen. Ein einmaliger Vorgang, bei dem die Deutsche Bank wohl der entsprechende Akteur war.
https://www.ariva.de/news/deutsche-bank-das-nchste-opfer-10603821
60 Milliarden Dollar ist das Maximum, das eine Gegenpartei einnemmen darf und FIMA ist eigentlich "nur" eine Overnight-Repo-Einrichtung. Der wöchentliche Durchschnitt lag allerdings bei 32 Mrd. USD, was darauf hindeutet, dass es länger als einen Tag in Anspruch genommen wurde.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...THaIAED8Pd?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...mtXwAAYkh8?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20230323/
Deutsche Bank Bloodbath Reignites Global Bank Crisis Fears:  “we noted an unprecedented surge in foreign official Repo ($60 billion) under the Fed's new FIMA repo facility, which means that the offshore scramble for dollars was alive and well
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...g9WIAE00Z5?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...ignites-global-bank-crisis-fears
Deutsche Bank CDS explodieren
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...AjaMAQJ3Fc?format=jpg&name=900x900  

und trotzdem ist die DeuBa bei l&s im plus. ;-)

Guckst du hier:
https://www.ls-tc.de/de/  

#7782 OTC Wochenendhandel, dann bin ich ja beruhigt ;-)  
P.S.: Wie ein Fondsmanager das Wochenende erlebt
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...rchschritten-381890?page=63#jumppos1596

Bitte weitergehen, hier gibt es nichts zu sehen:
Discount Fenster: 110 Mrd. USD.
Repos: +60 Mrd. USD
+ das neue Bank Term Funding-Programm (BTFP): +42 Mrd. USD auf 54 Mrd. USD
+ Kredite an die FDIC-eigenen "Brückenbanken", die die Vermögenswerte und Verbindlichkeiten der kürzlich zusammengebrochenen US Bank halten.: +37 Mrd. USD auf 179 Mrd. USD.
 

CaixaBank, UniCredit most exposed to rate increases in Europe: CaixaBank and UniCredit are the European banks most exposed to an interest rate shock, analysis of the most recent regulatory disclosures on the interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) of 22 lenders shows.
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956305/...rate-increases-in-europe  

> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-eurozone-472954?page=310#jumppos7764

On 21 March 2023, the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) published the following letters regarding the review of the European Market Infrastructure Regulation.
https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/...iew_mep~058e272ec7.en.pdf  

Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB: "Banks are often unaware how risky their business partners from that sector really are. This interface between normal banks and shadow banks is dangerous. That’s where we have to watch out. If there is a sudden shift in the perception of risks, then suddenly everyone wants to sell and reduce exposures. That is when everybody looks for the exit and there could be accidents, also involving banks."
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/...~13f28c1379.en.html  

Financial Stability Board: Enhancing the Resilience of Non-Bank - Progress report: "NBFI has grown considerably – to almost half of global financial assets, compared to 42% in 2008 – and become more diverse. "
https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P101122.pdf

Und plötzlich brennt die Hütte, äh ich meine Bank - “We need to get our house in order in the EU" (Verena Ross, the chief of the EU’s securities regulator): Here’s where the next financial crisis starts. There are ‘accidents’ waiting to happen. Alarm bells are ringing about so-called shadow banks or nonbanks...
https://www.politico.eu/article/...al-banks-regulation-crisis-starts/  

Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?
Kristian Blickle, Markus Brunnermeier, and Stephan Luck
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1005

Regular depositors are unable to identify failing banks. In contrast, the interbank market precisely identifies which banks will fail: the interbank market collapses for failing banks entirely but continues to function for surviving banks, which can borrow from other banks in response to deposit outflows. Since regular depositors appear uninformed, it is unlikely that deposit insurance would exacerbate moral hazard. Instead, interbank depositors are best positioned for providing “discipline” via short-term funding.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/...f_reports/sr1005.pdf  

Dirk Müller: „Es wird richtig scheppern“
https://finanzmarktwelt.de/...eller-es-wird-richtig-scheppern-265486/  

Dessen Fondperformance sagt ja alles

:)))

IW-Konjunkturexperte Michael Grömling. „Die große Erholung bleibt 2023 aus. Wir stehen vor einer neuen Zeit der Stagflation“.  Für 2023 rechnet das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von lediglich ¼ Prozent.
https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/...ht-wohlstand.html
Inflation wird Stagflation: Verlieren Fed und EZB Kontrolle?
https://finanzmarktwelt.de/...und-ezb-kontrolle-videoausblick-262860/
Die Deutsche Bank warnt vor einer Stagflation im Stil der 70er: Die Märkte müssen sich auf eine lange Periode negativer Renditen für Aktien und Anleihen einstellen, so die Deutsche Bank
https://www.businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/...-so-die-deutsche-bank-a/  

Banking Crisis Raises Concerns About Hidden Leverage in the System: More than a dozen regulators, bankers, asset managers and former central bank officials interviewed by Bloomberg News say shadow debt and its links to lenders are becoming a major cause for concern as rising interest rates send tremors through financial markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...den-leverage-in-the-system
IMF chief warns global financial stability at risk from banking turmoil. Guindos said that as economic stress increased in the UK, EU and the US, so-called shadow banks, a term for non-bank financial institutions, could further expose cracks in the financial system. “We do believe it could be a source of problems for the whole financial system, and we need to be careful,” he said.
https://thedigitalbanker.com/...ability-at-risk-from-banking-turmoil/
ECB warns that shadow banking could trigger next financial crisis
The shadow banking sector is the “soft spot in the financial system” and could trigger the next financial crisis, the vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned.
https://www.businesspost.ie/news/...ld-trigger-next-financial-crisis/  

Basel Committee chair announces increased oversight of financial instability risks by 'shadow banks'
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/...ank-exposures-2023-03-24/
 

Kreditvergabe im Euro-Raum kühlt ab: Das Wachstum der Kreditvergabe an Unternehmen im Euro-Raum verlangsamt sich im Zuge der Zinserhöhungen der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) weiter.
https://finanzbusiness.de/nachrichten/banken/article15447839.ece  

Bankenaufseher Campa: „Die Risiken im Finanzsystem sind nach wie vor groß“
José Manuel Campa hat unrealisierte Verluste in Bankbilanzen untersucht.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...-wie-vor-gross/29060658.html