Der USA Bären-Thread
wenn man mit 105 jahren noch am computer sitzt, dann passieren halt solche fehlerchen...
Then, year after year, we would hear from the likes of Kuroda and Draghi how the BOJ and ECB will continue and even extend their insane monetary policy, which now includes the purchase of 80% of all Japanese ETFs...
why was this happened if rates were negative? Why were consumers not taking their money out of the bank and spending it, pushing inflation higher?
.... There was a simple reason for this, as the BIS had highlighted: ultra low rates may perversely be driving a greater propensity for consumers to save as retirement income becomes more uncertain.
What logically followed from this is that inflation would also track rates lower, resulting in a crushing blow to economic orthodoxy where the only weapon central banks had left to spark an economic - read inflationary - recovery was to ease monetary conditions even more in hopes that eventually they would drop low enough to spark the long-awaited recovery.
there is one last "tool" they can and will use - helicopters. Because when it comes to printing money, whether in digital reserve format, or physical paper format, there is literally no limit how much can and will be created to achieve what is the endgame of the current monetary dead end: the total destruction of fiat as a store of wealth in order to preserve the global equity tranche while wiping away a few hundred trillion in debt.
This is how Bank of America summarizes this stunning observation:
"As low growth & inflation make low-risk-asset income scarce (e.g. from government bonds), households are forced to reduce consumption and increase savings in order to meet retirement goals."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...blows-all-modern-central-banking
https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/...L/ME-cio-weekly-letter.pdf
The S&P 500 has rallied an impressive 33% from its March 23 lows, getting further
away from its 50% retracement level of 2,792 and its long-term secular support of
2,688. While some investors are justifiably concerned about the historically painful
economic data and the uncertain path of the virus, we would argue that a new equity bull
market looks to be underway.
U.S. equities appear to be in the “Wait and Watch” stage, which will potentially last into
the third quarter, then followed by a “Path Forward” stage—dependent on the success
of economic re-openings and ultimately vaccines and treatment. In this section, we
address two investor questions during this current stage—seemingly higher valuations
and what the market is pricing in, before taking a historical perspective of how a “Path
Forward” happens.
.. we would argue that in the post-virus world, a higher valuation multiple for
the S&P 500 may be the new normal. A gradual recovery in the consumer and services
sectors, should keep inflation and interest rates at low levels, often considered a good
position for multiples. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) policy interest rates
is seen to remain at or near zero-bound long after the recovery takes hold, ..."
Importantly, they note that bear markets
within secular bull markets tend to find support above or near a rising 200-week moving
average (MA). The S&P 500 did break below its 200-week MA recently but reversed
quickly and has had weekly closes above this key support of 2,688 since April 10, keeping
the secular uptrend intact.
We are keeping an eye on key investment risks especially as re-openings gather pace.
Those risks would include a re-escalation of U.S./China tensions and the second-order
effects of this recession, including corporate bankruptcies, the timeline for small
businesses to recover, and behavioral changes regarding consumer spending post-virus.
If these risks remain reasonably contained against the backdrop of improving economic
activity and stimulus measures, then markets should continue to climb the wall of worry
from a 12- to 18-month perspective in our view...."
....The 50 day EMA underneath should offer support, and it is likely that buyers will look at that as an opportunity to go long again. However, if we were to break down below that level, and the $30 level which is just below there, then the market is likely to break down rather significantly. ...
https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oil-june120-chris.png
https://youtu.be/xfpkA7dJOAU
Also wenn das nicht nach der kurzen Deflations-Phase zu Inflation im Konsumentenbereich führt, dann gibt es IMO niemals mehr Inflation.
In diesem Zusammenhang sieht vielleicht auch Silber bald interessanter aus als in den 9 Jahren zuvor.
Hier mein Silber-Chart. Irgendwie habe ich das Gefühl da kommt doch monetärer Druck von unten.
Schau ma mal… ich halte auch ein wenig in Silberminen-Aktien. Die sollten nach dem Ausbruch exzellent laufen.
German Official Leaks Report Denouncing Corona as ‘A Global False Alarm
Some of the report key passages are:
The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
The people who die from Corona are essentially those who would statistically die this year, because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies can no longer cope with any random everyday stress (including the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation).
Worldwide, within a quarter of a year, there has been no more than 250,000 deaths from Covid-19, compared to 1.5 million deaths [25,100 in Germany] during the influenza wave 2017/18.
The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
A reproach could go along these lines: During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.
So far, so bad. But it gets worse.
The report focuses on the “manifold and heavy consequences of the Corona measures” and warns that these are “grave”.More people are dying because of state-imposed Corona-measures than they are being killed by the virus.
The reason is a scandal in the making:A Corona-focused German healthcare system is postponing life-saving surgery and delaying or reducing treatment for non-Corona patients....."
As Der Spiegel reported on Mai 15th: “Stephen Kohn [the whistleblower] has since been suspended from duty. He was advised to obtain a lawyer and his work laptop was confiscated.”...
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/...bal-false-alarm/
Wenn es steigt, steigt es weiter - womöglich sogar deutlich. Sollte es hingegen fallen, könnte es auch stark fallen.
Der Nutzwert solcher Artikel: Null, zero, nada, 0
Infotainment für fundamentale Analphabeten.
‘We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldn’t get any better.’
That’s Manolo Falco, Citigroup’s C, -2.54% co-head of investment banking, explaining to the Financial Times why he believes the firm’s corporate clients should raise as much cash as possible before the reality of the pandemic sinks in for investors.
“As the second quarter comes along and we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that,” Falco continued, “we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks.”
To his point, last month wasn’t so tough, in terms of market performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.06% , S&P 500 SPX, +0.48% , and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.29% all closed the books on a strong May on Friday, buoyed by mounting optimism over the easing of lockdowns in the U.S. along with a supportive Federal Reserve.
This while global economies continue to grapple with historic recessions.
“Markets are pricing a V [shaped recovery], everyone’s coming back to work, and this is going to be fine,” Falco told the FT. “I don’t think it’s going to be that easy quite frankly.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/...-31?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Wenn Schuldenprobleme - wie seit 2002 laufend geschehen - mit immer noch mehr Schulden zugeschissen werden, steigen Aktien natürlich weiter. Das ändert aber nichts an der Tatsache, dass Schneeballsysteme nicht ewig weiterlaufen.
Der von Kicky gepostete ZH-Artikel (# 179) bringt das ebenfalls ganz gut auf den Punkt.
...there is one last "tool" they can and will use - helicopters. Because when it comes to printing money, whether in digital reserve format, or physical paper format, there is literally no limit how much can and will be created to achieve what is the endgame of the current monetary dead end: the total destruction of fiat as a store of wealth in order to preserve the global equity tranche while wiping away a few hundred trillion in debt.
Im Bärenthread geht es zwar auch um mittelfristige Trades (die keinesfalls immer short sein müssen). Schwerpunkt ist jedoch, Hintergrund-Erkenntnisse zur Nachhaltigkeit des aktuell ziemlich maroden Finanzsystems zu gewinnen. So beträgt z. B. die Summe aller offenen Derivate-Position ein Vielfaches des Welt-BIP. Da lauert eine wahre Bombe - und sie ist z. B. nicht Covid-sicher....
Wenn du VW longen willst, weil es charttechnische Ausbrüchssignale gibt, oder weil Powell frisches Geld druckt, bist du hier im Thread mit Sicherheit an der falschen Adresse. Hab sowieso den Eindruck, dass es dir vorwiegend ums Stänkern und Belehren geht. Leider mit recht dünner Substanz....
Aktien und Immobilien könnten zwar als Sachwerte zumindest einen Restwert behalten. Sicher allerdings ist auch das nicht. Denn der weltweite Verlust aller Ersparnisse geht sicherlich mit einer wirtschaftlichen Depression einher, mit Revolten, Mord- und Todschlag sowie Bürgerkriegen (in USA: Militär gegen bewaffnete Bürger - wie jetzt wegen Floyd). Manche Fabriken und Immobilien gehen schlichtweg in Flammen auf.
Bereits jetzt - wo die Kacke zu dampfen beginnt - retten sich viele US-Firmen in grenzbetrügerische Chapter-11-Pleiten , und dabei werden in der Regel die Altaktien wertlos.
Wie sich Aktien entwickeln, wenn Staatsanleihen und Schulden wertlos werden, lässt sich mMn kaum vorhersagen. Es könnte z. B. zu gewaltigen politischen Umschwüngen kommen, bei denen Aktionären die Eigentumsrechte an den Firmen von den neuen (linken) Regierungen streitig gemacht werden. Dann werden Aktien zwar nicht wertlos, aber die (enteigneten) Besitzer verarmen dennoch, sofern sie nicht noch irgendwo Gold im Garten vergraben haben.
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/...ien-eingeplant-article21816794.html
https://www.zeit.de/2020/23/...etersloh-coronavirus-krise-bertelsmann
Das scheint hier niemanden zu stören, was ich in der Tat befremdlich finde und wenn der Absturz kommt, der hier oft skizziert wird, wird auch niemand mehr von Shorts profitieren können, da es dann keinen mehr gibt, der diese Gewinne noch auszahlen könnte.
Eigentlich müsste man hier zum Prepper werden, um den kommenden zivisilatorischen Absturz eventuell zu überleben.
Ich versuche nur meinen Weg mittels Informationen zu finden und sehe hier zwar Informationen, die aber außer ein Erdloch zu suchen keinen Weg aufzeigen. Aber ich lasse mich da gerne belehren, wenn ich falsch liege, oder es einfach noch nicht verstanden habe. Letzlich weiß ich ja auch nicht was kommt und belehre deshalb auch niemanden. Ich kann auch total falsch liegen und wir sind am Vorabend des finalen Kollapses des Finanzsystems, aber wie schon gesagt, dann ist es egal in was man positioniert ist.