Was ist da mit Citrix los? Steigt in D...
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Gruß Dampf
Meistens kein ganz schlechtes Zeichen.
October 16, 2000 7:54am
THE DAY AHEAD: Citrix hopes to
take first turnaround steps
By Larry Dignan TDAIN ZDII
COMMENTARY -- No news has been good news this
quarter for Citrix Systems. The company hopes to take
its first steps to regaining its past glory Oct. 18 when it
reports third quarter results.
Amid the flood of profit warnings from high-tech
companies, there wasn't a peep out of Citrix in recent
weeks. For Citrix investors, that's the first piece of good
news from the company in months.
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Citrix (Nasdaq: CTXS), whose software allows
customers to run any application over any device, was
pummeled in the second quarter after the company
issued a profit warning and lost its CEO. Shares
stumbled to a low of $14 from a March high of $122.
Much of that plunge occurred over the summer (stock
chart).
It was a tough fall for Citrix, a former Wall Street
darling. Of the seven analysts covering Citrix, four of
them rate the stock a "hold." Now Citrix is trying to
regain some credibility.
Analysts said the biggest thing for Citrix is execution.
The company boosted revenue and customers easily,
but lacked the internal processes to handle the growth.
The end result was a second quarter debacle, which
was magnified by a transition in the way the company
sold its software. Toss in management turmoil and
Citrix has become the ultimate "show me" stock.
Many Citrix watchers on Wall Street agree that the
company's technology and market niche is first rate.
Citrix is one of the few companies that can bring legacy
systems up on a common platform. Analysts also
reckon that Citrix will eventually double its annual
revenue to post $1 billion in sales.
But first the company has to deliver solid results for the
quarter ending Sept. 30.
Michael Cristinziano, an analyst with Gerard Klauer
Mattison, is projecting earnings of 12 cents a share on
sales of $111 million. His projections are in line with
First Call Corp. consensus figures.
You're not going to see any quick fixes from Citrix, but
there are some clear mileposts to watch. Here's what to
look for to gauge a Citrix turnaround.
1. Execution. Can Citrix hit current expectations?
Cristinziano said he's looking for signs of progress from
Citrix's sales force. "They have to sell more effectively
to large enterprise customers," he said.
2. Software revenue. Citrix's second quarter
meltdown was attributed to the transition from selling
shrink-wrap software to electronic licensing. Analysts
were irked by the fact that the transition "snuck up" on
management. As Citrix transitions to a licensing
software model, the company's inventory problems
should disappear. Cristinziano expects about 20
percent of Citrix's revenue to derive from licensing with
that percentage rising to about 80 percent eventually.
Analysts said Citrix now has the internal controls in
place to manage the transition.
3. A new CEO. What happens when a company like
Citrix can't make the jump to the big leagues?
Executives take the hit. Shortly after Citrix announced
its second quarter profit warning, a management
shakeup left the company without a CEO. Company
founder and Chairman Edward E. Iacobucci stepped
down. Former CEO Mark Templeton became president
and Roger W. Roberts, Citrix CEO from 1990 to 1998,
became Chairman.
The company still needs a CEO. Citrix's search is
under way. Analysts said the company has talked to a
few candidates, but no one has been presented to the
Citrix board of directors. It's a 50/50 chance a CEO will
be named by the end of the year, said analysts.
4. Products. Citrix's growth thus far has hinged on its
MetaFrame software, which extends the functionality of
Microsoft's operating systems and UNIX throughout
corporations. MetaFrame has at least another two
years of solid growth ahead, but analysts want to see
Citrix's next hit. The company, which is Web enabling
its products, has made a big move into offering
corporate portals with its NFuse software.
But the next growth engine for Citrix may be its "Project
Vertigo," which is a new user interface used for Web
business applications. Analysts aren't ready to
proclaim Vertigo as Citrix's next hit, but they are clearly
keeping an eye on it.TD
Gruß Dampf
schöne grüße
paro
Seit Dem Tief im Juli/August schon über 50% zugelegt, trotz schwierigem Marktumfeld.
Citrix profitiert von der Einführung von Windows 2000 und einem kürzlich erfolgtem Upgrade durch Lehmann Brothers.
Die letzten Quartalszahlen waren auch erstmals wieder recht ordentlich.
Charttechnisch liegt der nächste Widerstand bei der 200T-Linie. Allerdings ist der Wert augenblicklich schon stark überkauft.
Eventuell noch etwas abwarten...
Gruß Dampf