ML Ups Shenhua Energy


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Eröffnet am: 29.11.07 07:16 von: skunk.works Anzahl Beiträge: 12
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5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksML Ups Shenhua Energy

 
  
    #1
29.11.07 07:16
ML Ups Shenhua Energy To Neutral; Not Yet A Buy

Merrill Lynch ups China Shenhua Energy's (1088.HK) H shares to Neutral from Sell.

Says stock has fallen 30% from mid-October peak; recently-signed 2008 contract coal prices up 10-15%, spot prices also hit record.

But still doesn't warrant Buy rating, as stock is expensive at 1.25X house's NPV HK$35/share, 25X house's 2008 PER, higher than 19.5X for HK broader market.

Notes Shenhua's 75% of total sales are contract sales, which are 20-30% below spot prices.
Adds if Shenhua shortens contract duration, or inks M&As, could be near-term catalysts.

Stock +4.8% at HK$45.70 under active volume HK$1.46 billion.  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua

 
  
    #2
30.11.07 08:15
1088 CHINA SHENHUA 46.5 +1 +2.20% 694,189 15,055

China Shenhua Energy Started At Outperform By Cazenove

China Shenhua Energy Fair Value Set At HK$53.30 By Cazenove  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua HK +1,73%=46,95h$

 
  
    #3
03.12.07 06:58

China Shenhua (01088) Energy prices are rising in China because of the surge in crude oil prices. The Reform and Development Commission decided to let coal price rise to encourage production. Share price of Shenhua will rise.

Buy $46.00 Target $50.00 Cut loss $40.00  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksChina Shenhua Could Raise $80 Billion for Takeover

 
  
    #4
03.12.07 07:15


China Shenhua Energy Co., the world's second-largest coal company, could raise almost $80 billion to spend on acquisitions of mines, power plants and ports to feed the nation's growing demand for energy.

The mining company is in preliminary talks to invest in Indonesia and is studying targets in Australia and Mongolia, President Ling Wen said Nov. 30. The $134 billion unsolicited takeover offer for Rio Tinto Group by BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, may accelerate those plans.

``It's very important to use not only organic growth, but also mergers and acquisitions to make our enterprise larger, better and more profitable,'' Ling said in an interview in Beijing. ``We have huge room to make some acquisitions.''

China Shenhua would be able to finance takeovers because its parent, state-owned Shenhua Group Corp., owns a 74 percent stake. China Shenhua would be able to free up $78.5 billion by selling new shares and diluting its parent's stake to just over 50 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Neither the state nor the company have any current plan for selling stock, Ling said.

China, the largest energy consumer after the U.S., burns coal to generate almost 80 percent of its power. The government estimates energy demand will rise about 4 percent annually to the equivalent of 2.7 billion metric tons of coal by 2010. Gross domestic product grew 11.5 percent in the third quarter.

Indonesian Projects

China Shenhua, which ranks behind St. Louis-based Peabody Energy Corp. in coal sales, gained as much as 1.4 percent to HK$47.75 ($6.13) in Hong Kong and traded at HK$47.35 at 12:05 p.m. local time. The stock more than doubled this year, outpacing the 46 percent advance in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

The parent's stake dropped from 81 percent after the company raised 66.6 billion yuan ($9 billion) in a Shanghai share sale in October. The stock has declined 8.8 percent since to 63.19 yuan.

The Beijing-based company is considering ``several'' projects in Indonesia including coal mining, electricity generation, railways and ports, Ling said, without naming potential targets. He declined to comment on a Nov. 26 report in the South China Morning Post that China Shenhua is considering a $4 billion bid for a controlling stake in PT Adaro Indonesia, the nation's second-largest coal producer.

``Shenhua wants to become a global company and in order to get there it has to acquire overseas assets,'' said Donovan Huang, a Hong Kong-based coal analyst at Nomura Securities Co. ``China is encouraging its coal companies to acquire overseas assets to enhance energy security.''

Beyond Coal

It is ``possible for us to consider some other kinds of mining than coal mining'' if the assets generate ``a good return,'' Ling said, without specifying minerals the company may add. The internal rate of return, a measure of a project's profitability, should be at least 10 percent, he said.

Ling said Shenhua is monitoring Sydney-based BHP's bid for London-based Rio Tinto. He declined to say whether Shenhua is planning a counteroffer. Shenhua's market value was equal to $163.5 billion on Nov. 30.

``We keep our eyes on the event but have no actions,'' Ling said. BHP's bid for Rio is ``a very good event in the mining sector globally and it will have a great influence not only on the mining industry but also on the Chinese economy.''

A five-year increase in metals prices has spurred about $185 billion of bids in the industry in the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A BHP takeover of Rio would trigger a new round of acquisitions and exert ``very heavy pressure'' on the management of Chinese mining companies, Ling said.

Record Prices

China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, became a net importer for the first time in January, ending centuries of self-sufficiency. The benchmark price of coal at Australia's Newcastle Port rose 72 percent this year to a record $88.63 a metric ton for the week ended Nov. 23, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.

``In the long term, I think the coal price will keep this high level and still have room to increase further,'' Ling said. ``In the next five to 10 years there is no doubt the Chinese economy will keep this trend, with GDP growth of about 10 percent.''  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksChina Shenhua H-share fair value raised to 58 hkd

 
  
    #5
18.12.07 08:10


Nomura raised its fair value estimate for China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd's Hong Kong-listed shares to 58.0 hkd from 52.0, citing prospects of further rise in coal prices, asset injections and overseas acquisitions.

The brokerage kept a ""buy"" call on the stock.

""We think Asian coal prices, having hit 90.25 usd/tonne on 29 November, could test 100/tonne, though the route up might not be straight. This would create a favourable environment for 2008 contract price negotiations, likely rising 9-15 pct year-on-year,"" Nomura said.

China Shenhua could see bigger domestic price increases, given its lower selling prices historically and its intention to price more aggressively in the future, it added.

Contract thermal coal was historically sold to power producers at regulated prices that were substantially below market levels. Market deregulation and higher regulatory costs also underpin an uptrend in contract thermal coal prices, Nomura noted.

Meanwhile, with Chinese authorities encouraging domestic coal producers to strengthen their muscle through consolidation and overseas acquisitions, ""we believe China Shenhua could close its first overseas deal in the first half of next year,"" Nomura said.

Moreover, mining assets of parent company could be injected into the listed company in the near term, it added.

At 2.39 pm, China Shenhua shares were trading down 0.55 hkd or 1.23 pct at 44.2.  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksChina Shenhua Energy 2007 coal output 158 mln tons

 
  
    #6
16.01.08 10:58
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd, the country's largest coal producer, said commercial coal output in December amounted to 13.5 mln tons, bringing total output to 158 mln tons for 2007.

Its commercial coal output in 2007 represents a rise of 15.7 pct from the 136.6 mln tons it produced in 2006.

In a statement filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the company said it sold 19.6 mln tons of coal last month, of which 1.9 mln tons were exported.

It sold a total of 208.4 mln tons of coal in 2007, up 21.8 pct from 171.1 mln tons in 2006.

Shenhua Energy, which also operates railways, ports and power plants, said power output was 7.59 bln kilowatt-hours (kWh) in December and 77.2 bln kWh in 2007, up from 55.36 bln kWh in 2006.

The company also sold 7.11 bln kWh of electricity in December and 72.13 bln kWh in 2007, up 39.5 pct from a year earlier.



-

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd, the country's largest coal producer, said commercial coal output in December amounted to 13.5 mln tons, bringing total output to 158 mln tons for 2007.

Its commercial coal output in 2007 represents a rise of 15.7 pct from the 136.6 mln tons it produced in 2006.

In a statement filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the company said it sold 19.6 mln tons of coal last month, of which 1.9 mln tons were exported.

It sold a total of 208.4 mln tons of coal in 2007, up 21.8 pct from 171.1 mln tons in 2006.

Shenhua Energy, which also operates railways, ports and power plants, said power output was 7.59 bln kilowatt-hours (kWh) in December and 77.2 bln kWh in 2007, up from 55.36 bln kWh in 2006.

The company also sold 7.11 bln kWh of electricity in December and 72.13 bln kWh in 2007, up 39.5 pct from a year earlier.  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua 44,1h$ = -2,76%

 
  
    #7
18.01.08 06:24
Shenhua Down 4.4%; Solid Earnings Outlook - DBS

China Shenhua (1088.HK) down 4.4% at HK$43.65, tracking HSI's 3.5% fall, despite company's strong earnings outlook.

DBS upgrades Shenhua to Buy from Hold, ups target on Shenhua to HK$55 vs HK$50.90, amid solid earnings prospect with expected CAGR of 24% in net profit between 2007 and 2009. "Near-term catalyst should come from the positive surprise of coal export contract prices." Stock likely to regain strength later when market sentiment gets less bearish.  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua 39,35 = -,25 = -,63%

 
  
    #8
26.02.08 07:06
China Shenhua Energy Co, the mainland largest coal producer, fell 25 cents to 39.35 dollars after the company announced weaker-than-expected preliminary results for 2007.

China Shenhua, which owns the largest coal reserve in the mainland, said its 2007 unaudited net profit stood at 19.8 billion yuan, up 19 percent from 16.6 billion a year ago.

""The results were 5 to 10 percent off our estimates and lower than consensus. My guess is, higher operating costs capped earnings despite strong sales,"" said Vivien Cheung, analyst at China Everbright Securities.  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua 38,9h$ = -0,9 = -2,26%

 
  
    #9
04.03.08 07:15


China Shenhua (1088, $39.8) 12M Target $38.0 Hold

Event: NDRC approved Buertai coal project of China Shenhua

National Development and Reform Commission recently approved China Shenhua¡¦s Buertai coal project.

The designed production capacity of Buertai coal project is 20mn tons. The total investment will amount to RMB3.4bn. The new plant will be operational in 2H09 and expand production capacity of Shenhua by 12%.

The company will release its 2007 financial results on 17 March, probably to be in line with market consensus.

The company¡¦s contract coal prices for 2008 has been finalised that represents a 10% increase yoy. We believe a structural tight supply of coal in China will ensure the uptrend of coal price in 2008.

The counter is currently trading at 2008 PER of 26.5x that we think is fair. We reiterate our HOLD recommendation on China Shenhua with an unchanged 12-month price target of $38.0.  

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua -3.9% = 36.7h$

 
  
    #10
13.03.08 09:06

China Shenhua Energy 2007 net profit seen up 20 pct

China Shenhua Energy is expected to report a net profit of 21 bln yuan for 2007, up 20 pct from the year-earlier level, on increased coal production and rising electricity demand on the mainland, BNP Paribas said.

Shenhua's revenue for 2007 is estimated at 80.67 bln yuan, up 25.6 pct, with the coal business and power operations expected to account for 52.66 bln yuan and 26.32 bln yuan respectively, it said.

China Shenhua announced earlier that its coal production rose 15.7 pct last year to 158 mln tons, while total power dispatched was up 39.5 pct at 72. 13 bln kWh.

BNP said it expects China Shenhua to sustain organic growth for the next three years, with compound annual growth rate of 11-12 pct seen for the coal business and 20-22 pct for the electricity operations.

China Shenhua is expected to release its 2007 results on Saturday.


 

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua +6,47% = 32,1...Energie

 
  
    #11
28.03.08 07:25

5570 Postings, 5260 Tage skunk.worksC Shenhua 36.7h$ = +2.66%

 
  
    #12
23.04.08 08:00
Shenhua Energy Target Raised To HK$24.5  

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