Headwaters - Bluechip in Energie- und Nanotechnik
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| Eröffnet am: | 06.11.05 18:25 | von: Anti Lemmin. | Anzahl Beiträge: | 57 |
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Die interessante News findet sich am Ende dieses Postings (rot): Headwaters hat einen Nano-Katalysator für den Ölsand-Abbau und für die Veredelung minderwertigen Öls entwickelt, der zurzeit in Raffinerien getestet wird - und noch 2005 Geld bringen soll.
Zunächst mal eine "Fremdmeinung": (etwas oberflächlich recherchiert)
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BetaFaktor - Headwaters ein Muss
16.09.05
Nach Ansicht der Experten von "BetaFaktor" ist die Aktie von Headwaters (ISIN US42210P1021/ WKN 909698) für jedes Nanotech-, alternative Energien- und Öko-Depot ein Muss.
Headwaters sei ein echter Blue-Chip, der klar wachse, fundamental absolut in Ordnung und sogar auch noch preiswert sei. Headwaters sei eigentlich ein Öko- bzw. Umwelttechnologieunternehmen und deshalb bei "grünen" Investoren und Medien sehr beliebt. Mit Nano-Technologie habe man allerdings viele technologische Durchbrüche geschafft. Da man sich etwas neu aufgestellt habe, habe man sich dementsprechend erst in 2000 in Headwaters umbenannt (die Vorgängergesellschaft sei bereits 1987 gegründet worden).
Das Unternehmen habe sich nun u. a. auf die Herstellung von alternativen Brennstoffen spezialisiert und habe ein Verfahren entwickelt, in dem man Industrieabfälle mittels eines patentierten chemischen Bindeprozesses zu synthetischen Brennstoffbriketts verarbeitet habe. So würden fossile Brennstoffe wie Gas, Kohle und Öl mit nanotechnologischen Anwendungen in alternative Energien konvertiert.
Außerdem habe man mit der Tochter Nanokinetix ein Nano-Ass im Ärmel: Das Unternehmen produziere Nano-Katalysatoren, die inzwischen reißend Absatz finden würden. Im Frühjahr habe Nanokinetix verkündet, dass der Mitarbeiter Dr. Bing Zhou ein neues katalytisches Verfahren entwickelt habe, welches die Rückstände an Schwermetallen bei der Arzneimittelherstellung stärker verringere.
Die Fundamentalbetrachtung für 2006 sei ungewöhnlich günstig. So besitze Headwaters ein KGV von 14 und ein KUV von 1,4. Nach Ansicht der Wertpapierspezialisten stehe der Wert vor der Entdeckung, wobei nicht das Risiko eines Fehlgriffs wie bei den Pennystocks bestehe.
Nach Ansicht der Experten von "BetaFaktor" ist die Headwaters-Aktie ein Muss für jedes Nanotech-, alternative Energien- und Öko-Depot.
Quelle: aktiencheck.de
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Zur Firma (Quelle: www.bigcharts.com -> HW -> profile)
Headwaters, Inc.. The Group's principal activities are to develop and commercialize its chemical technologies, which are used to produce alternative fuel from coal derivatives and to develop and deploy alternative energy technologies. Alternative energy segment includes traditional coal-based solid alternative fuel business. It also develops and commercializes catalysts and catalytic processes for producing chemicals and converting low-value fossil fuels into high-value alternative fuels. CCP segment includes supply of post-combustion services and technologies to the coal-fired electric utility industry. The Construction materials segment produces and sells standard masonry, stucco construction materials and supplies packaged products and blocks as well as value added technology products. The Group acquired VFL Technology Corporation on 09-Apr-2004, Eldorado Stone LLC on 02-Jun-2004, and Tapco Holdings Inc on 08-Sep-2004.
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Und hier meine eigene Meinung: (IMHO besser recherchiert)
Headwaters (HW - NYSE) ist ein Mischkonzern, der u. a. in der Kohleverflüssigung (Umwandlung von Kohle in einen Benzin-Ersatzstoff) arbeitet. Demnächst soll eine größere Anlage in China gebaut werden. Die Firma forscht auch eifrig im Bereich Nanotechnologie und hat nanotechnische Verfahren entwickelt, das Öl aus den riesigen Ölschiefer-Vorkommen in Alaska kostengünstig zu extrahieren (siehe unten, fett). Da der Konzern auch im Abfall-Management tätig ist (Entsorgung von Flugasche aus Kohlefeuerungen), ist es sinnvoll, dass er kürzlich zwei Firmen für die Fertigung von Baumaterialien (Ziegel, Leichtbeton) zugekauft hat - denn dort kann die Asche, für deren Entsorgung Geld kassiert wird, auch noch an Endkunden (in Ziegeln usw.) weiterverkauft werden.
HW hat ein 2005-KGV von 13 (Stand: 4.11.05) und hat während der letzten 5 Jahre jedes Jahr rund 30 % Gewinnwachstum ausgewiesen.
siehe:
http://www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp
Da wird also - anders als etwa beim Dauer-Geldverbrenner Ballard Power - buchstäblich Kohle verdient. Die Marktkapitalisierung ist mit 1,3 Mrd. Dollar noch recht klein. Ich hab mir gestern eine kleine Position HW zugelegt (EK: 31,60 USD).
Zu potenziellen Problemen zählt, dass Headwaters für die Kohleverflüssigung in USA Staats-Subventionen erhält (Section 29 tax provisions), die offenbar 2007 auslaufen.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ceb/fuel.html
Headwaters neuerliche Diversifizierungs-Strategie dürfte die Folgen aber weitgehend auffangen. Inzwischen generieren Baumaterialen über 50 Prozent des Umsatzes. Einnahmen aus der Kohleverflüssigung machen zurzeit unter 25 % des Umsatzes aus - vor zwei Jahren waren es noch 88 %.
Quelle: http://www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp (Infos zu Section 29 in der Mitte)
Dieses Problem - das womöglich eine der Ursachen für Kursverluste in den letzten Monaten ist - scheint mir daher überbewertet zu sein, zumal in Anbetracht des Potenzials, den der Nanoableger der Firma - NanoKinetix - hat.
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Hier den fett hervorgehobenen Teil lesen - und beachten, dass der Katalysator für den Ölsandabbau inzwischen bereits entwickelt und getestet ist, was die Motley "Fools" wohl noch nicht mitbekommen haben (siehe News am Ende des Threads)
Motley Fool
Turn Off the TV, Headwaters
By Jack Uldrich
September 28, 2005
My wife and I have two young school-age children, and it is our policy that they are not allowed to watch any television on school nights until their homework is done. In spite of our best intentions, however, they still sometimes sneak into the family room before their work is complete and flick on the old boob tube. Being fairly good kids, though, the potential household crisis is usually averted with a simple admonishment to turn it off.
I was reminded of this maddening TV ritual the other day, when Headwaters (NYSE: HW) announced that it had developed a new chemical process based on nanotechnology that will "enable the production of high-quality, long-life, flat-screen television monitors at a fraction of the cost of today's devices."
I have no reason to doubt the sincerity of the claim -- which came from the company's nanotechnology division, NanoKinetix -- but investors in Headwaters should not be misled into believing that the company, by getting into the flat-panel display business, is either on the verge of embarking on something big or diversifying its business.
Nanotechnology is, in fact, poised to affect the flat-panel display market. In May, Motorola (NYSE: MOT) announced that it had created a new "nano-emissive" flat-panel display. DuPont (NYSE: DD), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), and Samsung are also playing in the same area, and even a few small start-ups such as Nano-Proprietary, which Fools Carl Wherrett and John Yelovich discussed a few months back, have a chance to make some serious inroads in the field.
To be fair, NanoKinetix's technology is based on polymeric crystals and, as such, is different from the approach of all of the aforementioned companies, which all seek to apply carbon nanotubes to flat-panel displays. But I am still not confident that Headwaters can advance much beyond the announcement phase with this new development, given the level of expertise and competition in this field.
That's OK, though, because Headwaters' NanoKinetix division is working on some other nanotechnology-related developments in which it is far better suited to play. I am referring to NanoKinetix's exciting work in applying nanocatalyst applications to coal liquefaction and heavy-oil upgrading.
Coal liquefaction has long been a dream of the coal industry, and it's still likely a way off. But Headwaters, which is working with China's largest coal company, Shenhua Group, to build the world's first commercial plant to transform coal into gasoline and diesel fuel, is also working on the development of a new line of nanocatalysts that might facilitate this process. The development of such a technology could revolutionize the energy industry by creating the equivalent of liquid gold.
But even more exciting to me than this possible development is the more realistic scenario that Headwaters could develop nanocatalysts to aid in the conversion of heavy oils into usable materials. If Headwaters can find a way to efficiently turn the heavy crude materials sitting in Canada's massive tar sand reserves (one of the world's largest known oil reserves) into a diesel or lighter material, company profits could be out of this world. This would be true even if the price of oil were to drop from its current range of beyond $60 back to the $30-$40 range.
So, without meaning to sound too much like a parent, I would kindly advise the management at Headwaters to temporarily set aside its work on flat-panel display TVs until it has successfully completed the more pressing homework assignment of turning the heavy oils of Canada into a viable, profitable, and long-term source of energy.
As I tell my kids, there will be plenty of time for television once you're successful.
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ebenfalls interessant:
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/funds/jubak/10215173.html
AM INTERESSANTESTEN:
In einer topaktuellen Nanotechnologie-Studie der "Innovest Group"
http://www.innovestgroup.com/pdfs/2005-10-19_Nanotechnology_Report.pdf
fand ich auf S. 73, dass Headwaters den Nano-Katalysator für den Ölsand-Abbau und für die Veredelung minderwertigen Öls bereits entwickelt hat. Die Ausbeute steigt damit um 10 bis 50 Prozent. Das Produkt wird zurzeit in Raffinerien getestet und soll noch 2005 erste Einnahmen generieren.
... Homogenous Catalyst: The company has developed the (HC)3™ catalyst, a single-molecule nanocatalyst to upgrade heavy oils such as the tar sand bitumen found in Canada and the low-grade crudes imported from South America, Eastern Europe and off-shore sites, into high-quality synthetic crudes, increasing conversion by 10 - 50 %. The product is currently being tested in several major oil refining companies around the world and Headwaters expects to generate revenues for this product this year.
Headwaters has identified more than 25 refineries which could immediately benefit from addition of the (HC)3 Technology, including about 10 which could utilize the
(HC)3 catalyst with only a minimal capital expenditure...
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Stock Of The Week
Headwaters In The Right Direction
John Dobosz, 11.16.05, 9:15 AM ET<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
NEW YORK - Vahan Janjigian, editor of Forbes Growth Investor, recommends buying shares of Headwaters. The South Jordan, Utah company does business in three areas: coal combustion products, construction materials and alternative energy.
Headwaters' (nyse: HW - news - people ) construction materials segment accounted for 49% of sales over the first nine months of 2005, and includes production and sales of concrete blocks, mortar, stucco, window shutters, vents and professional cutting and shaping tools. The alternative energy segment, which licenses technologies that cause chemical reagents to interact with coal to produce a solid fuel, brought in 28% of sales. Brining in 23% of revenue was the coal combustion segment, which helps utilities sell the fly and bottom ash that forms as a byproduct of the coal-burning process. The ash minimizes the permeability and enhances the durability of concrete.
Revenue for fiscal 2005 (ended Sept. 30) rose 92% to $1.06 billion from $555 million in 2004. Net income came in at $121.3 million ($2.79 per share), up 88% from $64.3 million ($1.88 per share).
Special Offer: Investors who acted on Vahan Janjigian's buy recommendation of United Therapeutics at $45.70 are up 59%. Click here for Janjigian's latest biotechnology buy in Forbes Growth Investor.
Shares of Headwaters closed Tuesday at $32.43, up 4.7% for the past 12 months but nearly 30% below their late July 52-week high of $45.75. Based on the current share price, Headwaters has a market capitalization of $1.35 billion and trades for 12 times 2005 earnings. Analysts look for the company’s earnings to grow 24% annually over the next five years, giving Headwaters a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.49.
The company has plans to keep that growth going. Last week, Headwaters announced that it has initiated a commercial-scale demonstration project of its “heavy oil hydrocracking technology,” which will convert residual oil into distillates that can be refined further into gasoline, diesel and other fuel products. Headwaters is also working on hydrogen peroxide plants and a coal-to-liquids technology in Asia.
Customers that use Headwaters’ valued-adding alternative energy technologies are eligible for tax credits arising from Section 29 of the Internal Revenue Code. These credits, however, run only through the end of 2007, and are reduced gradually to zero as the average price of oil rises.
“Persistently high oil prices could result in the elimination of these credits, which may cause customers to shut facilities,” says Janjigian. “Our recommendation is made largely on the expectation that oil prices will recede.”
“Headwaters has expanded profit margins by raising prices and improving utilization rates,” says Janjigian. “With demand expected to remain strong, we believe margins can continue to expand. Finally, the recently passed energy bill contains several provisions that should benefit Headwaters indirectly.”
Janjigian added Headwaters to the Forbes Growth Investor Top 50 model portfolio on Oct. 31.
The investment above was recommended in Forbes Newsletters’ free Stock of the Week e-mail. Click here to receive Stock of the Week next Monday morning instead of waiting until Wednesday.
Send comments and questions to newsletters@forbes.com
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Headwaters net doubles; licensee plants curtail output (HW)
By Robert Daniel
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Headwaters Inc., (HW) the South Jordan, Utah, provider of products and services to the energy, construction and home-improvement industries, reported that first-quarter net income more than doubled on 28% higher revenue. Net for the quarter ended Dec. 31 reached $28.3 million, or 60 cents a share, from $11.1 million, or 30 cents, in the year-earlier period. The figures reflect an increase in shares outstanding to 48.6 million from 40.6 million. Revenue reached $280.5 million from $218.4 million. The company said three facilities owned by a company licensee have curtailed production "due to the uncertain oil-price environment. The decision to curtail production may be temporary or long term depending upon oil-price movement." And in January, Headwaters received the final $70 million payment due from the litigation settlement reached with AJG in 2005. Headwaters applied the proceeds to repaying the $30 million outstanding under a revolving-credit line and paid $24 million of a first-lien term loan, effectively prepaying all scheduled principal payments on the term debt until November 2007.
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Headwater's Revenue Surges
By TSC and IRIS Staff
1/24/2006 2:44 PM EST
First-quarter earnings at Utah-based energy and construction services provider Headwaters (HW:NYSE) jumped 154% thanks to higher sales and margins.
The company earned $28.3 million, or 60 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $11.1 million, or 30 cents a share, a year ago. Analysts were forecasting 57 cents a share in the most recent quarter. Sales rose 28% to $280.5 million, above the consensus estimate of $268 million compiled by Thomson First Call.
Operating income increased 42% to $50.3 million in the quarter, as gross profit margin expanded to 17.91% from 16.16%. The company's tax rate fell to 26% in the latest quarter from 37% a year ago, as the company benefited from credits related to investments in alternative fuel.
"Tax credits claimed by alternative fuel facility owners may begin to be phased out or eliminated prior to their scheduled expiration on Dec. 31, 2007, if the 'reference price' of oil enters into or exceeds an established average annual range of oil prices, adjusted annually for inflation," the company noted. Three facilities owned by a licensee of Headwaters have stopped production due to the uncertain oil price environment. Headwaters added that, "high oil prices create an uncertain environment that could result in further curtailment of production."
Revenue from coal combustion products during the quarter increased 23% to $65.2 million from $53.1 million in the previous year. The increase in revenue, Headwaters said, resulted from a combination of continued strong demand, upward pricing trends in most concrete markets, and increased project revenues. Further, weather conditions in the south central region of the United States were favorable.
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Headwaters Profit Jumps
By TSC and IRIS Staff
5/8/2006 10:25 AM EDT
Headwaters (HW:NYSE) said its second-quarter earnings rose 84% from the year-ago period.
The South Jordan, Utah-based company earned $18.4 million, or 40 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with $10 million, or 26 cents a share, a year ago. Adjusted earnings were 55 cents a share in the most recent quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 44 cents a share.
Second-quarter revenue rose 21.3% from a year-ago period to $269.7 million as against analysts' expectation of $255 million.
"Our quarterly performance continues to be strong with exceptional revenue growth and continues to mark our transition away from Section 29. The consolidated operating margins were impacted by the lack of recognition of license fees and inefficiencies within our construction materials segment. We remain hopeful that uncertainty surrounding the Section 29 issue will be resolved in the near term,'' the company said.
Second-quarter operating income rose 5% from a year-ago period to $37.7 million, but operating margin declined 216 basis points to 14%.
By segment, second-quarter revenue from construction materials segment rose 20.6% to $131.7 million and from coal combustion products segment it rose to $58.5 million. Revenue from alternative energy segment increased 22.7% to $79.5 million.
Ob die Firmen den Betrieb wieder (profitabel) aufnehmen können, hängt von einer noch ausstehenden Gesetzesnovelle ab (Section 45k).
Die Headwater-Aktie machte nach der Mitteilung (unten) heute 12 % tiefer auf, erholte sich dann aber wieder. Headwater ist somit eine Aktie, die paradoxerweise von billiger werdendem Öl profitiert, weil dann die Kunden wieder Staatsförderung erhalten. Ich war nur kurz zur Eröffnung des Threads in HW investiert. Sollte der Ölpreis nachgeben, könnte man mit HW (long Aktie) darauf spekulieren, ohne Shorts am Hals zu haben.
Headwaters Incorporated Updates Status of Section 29 Facilities and Recent Legislative Actions
Last Update: 6:00 AM ET May 18, 2006
SOUTH JORDAN, Utah, May 18, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Headwaters Incorporated (HW) today announced that additional customers have idled production at their synthetic fuel facilities, bringing the total idled synthetic fuel lines to at least 23. These lines represented 41% of Headwaters' fiscal 2005 reagent sales and license fees. The decision to idle synfuel plants operated by Headwaters customers is generally driven by the current level and volatility of oil prices and the lack of federal legislation that would provide certainty for production economics this year. Synthetic fuel production at these idled plants may resume, depending on various factors, including a reduction in oil prices or the potential enactment of federal legislation. Many of Headwaters' customers retain production flexibility that could allow them to make up lost production during the remainder of 2006 if the current shutdown remains limited in duration.
Headwaters participates in the synthetic fuel industry primarily by licensing its technology and selling chemical reagents to owners of synthetic fuel facilities. The owners benefit from tax credits generated from the sale of qualified synthetic fuel produced at their facilities. The value of these credits is dependent on the full-year average price of oil for the year in which the credits are generated. While the full-year average price of oil cannot be known with certainty prior to the end of the year, current high oil prices suggest that the credits' value could be partially or fully phased out for 2006.
Legislation was proposed in Congress for inclusion in the recent tax reconciliation bill that would have impacted the potential phase-out of production tax credits for 2006 and 2007. However, this provision was not included in the reconciliation bill as enacted.
The proposed legislation is under consideration for inclusion in subsequent legislation, such as an "extenders" bill. If included and enacted as proposed, then there would be no phase-out of tax credits for 2006 and Headwaters' customers could resume production at their synthetic fuel facilities.
To diversify itself from the risks associated with Section 45k (formerly Section 29), Headwaters has over recent years developed a two part strategy. First, Headwaters has completed several acquisitions in the building products industry over the past five years, generating more than $768 million in revenue in its most recent fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2005. The underlying revenue growth rate in Headwaters' building products businesses was 21% comparing the quarter ended March 31, 2006, to the quarter ended March 31, 2005.
To sustain growth, a key part of Headwaters' building products strategy is to introduce new products into its distribution system. This year Headwaters is introducing synthetic slate roofing, hurricane shutters, concrete shutters, architectural brick and specialized concrete tiles and counters. In addition, we are incrementally expanding our core products with color, size and shape variations to meet customer demand.
The second part of Headwaters' diversification strategy is to develop a portfolio of new energy and specialty chemical products. Headwaters expects that several of these products should be producing revenue over the next 12 months and we anticipate they will contribute substantially to Headwaters' future growth. The products include heavy oil upgrading catalysts, coal cleaning, gasoline reforming, ethanol and direct synthesis hydrogen peroxide.
"Due to the uncertainty surrounding oil prices and legislative action, we believe it is prudent to widen the band of our earnings forecast for the 2006 fiscal year," said Scott K. Sorensen, chief financial officer. "Even if no legislation is passed and additional plants are idled, we estimate that Headwaters' fully diluted earnings per share should be in the range of $2.00 to $2.70 per share." This range is based upon Headwaters current estimates under the present circumstances. Future events could cause these estimates to change materially and Headwaters does not expect to update its estimates.
"Our diversification process continues to be successfully implemented," said Kirk A. Benson, chairman and chief executive officer. "We have reduced our percentage of revenue related to Section 29 from nearly 100 percent in fiscal 2002 to 28 percent in fiscal 2005. We will continue upon this path of strategic diversification, as appropriate."
About Headwaters Incorporated
Headwaters Incorporated is a world leader in creating value through innovative advancements in the utilization of natural resources. Headwaters is a diversified growth company providing products, technologies and services to the energy, construction and home improvement industries. Through its alternative energy, coal combustion products, and building materials businesses, the company earns a growing revenue stream that provides the capital needed to expand and acquire synergistic new business opportunities.
SOURCE: Headwaters Incorporated
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By TSC and IRIS Staff
5/18/2006 4:01 PM EDT
Headwaters (HW:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) said on Thursday that additional customers have idled production at their synthetic fuel facilities, bringing the total idled synthetic fuel lines to at least 23, representing 41% of it's fiscal 2005 reagent sales and license fees. Synthetic fuel production at these idled plants may resume, depending on various factors, including a reduction in oil prices or the potential enactment of federal legislation.
Headwaters participates in the synthetic fuel industry primarily by licensing its technology and selling chemical reagents to owners of synthetic fuel facilities.
Due to the uncertainty of oil prices and legislative action, the company now expects its fiscal 2006 earnings of $2 to $2.70 a share, even if no legislation is passed related to tax credits generated from the sale of qualified synthetic fuel and additional plants are idled.
To diversify itself from the risks associated with Section 45k, the company has over recent years developed a two part strategy. First, it has completed several acquisitions in the building products industry over the past five years. The second part of it's diversification strategy is to develop a portfolio of new energy and specialty chemical products.
The company's shares were trading at $29.50, down $1.90, or 6.1% Thursday.
Heute kam ein Downgrade, das den Kurs noch einmal 3 % auf jetzt 26,60 USD drückte (dann ist DAS also auch "durch" und enthalten).
Thursday, June 01, 2006
HEADWATERS CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL 9:14 AM
RBC CUTS HEADWATERS PRICE TARGET TO $34 FROM $46 9:15 AM
Als Headwaters im Februar bei 37,50 Dollar stand, empfahl Jim Jubak (MSN, er schreibt auch für Street.com) die Aktie mit KZ 47 Dollar. Jubak ist kein Dummkopf, sondern einer der besten Buy-Side-Analysten, die ich kenne. Man werfe nur einen Blick auf diesen Artikel von ihm: http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=2582374#jump2582374
Die Vorzüge und das Potenzial von Headwaters hab ich ja schon im Eingangsposting beschrieben. Die Probleme, die die Aktie jetzt drücken, finden sich in den Postings 41 und 42. 28 % "Rabatt" auf den Kurs seit Jubaks Empfehlung finde ich aber schon mal ganz ordentlich, zumal Headwater immer noch solide Gewinne macht (neueste EPS-Range: 2 bis 2,60 Dollar für 2006, Range abhängig von Gesetzgebung und Ölpreis, siehe P. 41/42).
Headwaters ist zum einen eine Wette auf fallende Ölpreise (dann würde die Kohleverflüssigung wieder staatliche Zuschüsse erhalten, die vom mittleren Jahresdurchschnittspreis für Öl abhängen) bzw. Gesetzesänderungen (Section 45k) für die Förderung, zum anderen eine Wette auf die nanotechnischen Verfahren, die die verwertbare Öl-Ausbeute in Raffinerien um 20 % steigern können.
Das Kerngeschäft von Headwaters ist, Flugasche zu entsorgen (Waste Management) und in Baumaterialien einzumischen, das dann weiter verkauft werden. Ein doppeltes Geschäft: Es gibt Geld für die Ascheentsorgung UND für das Baumaterial.
Hier Jubaks Text:
(Auszug aus: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/jubak/stocks.asp)
Headwaters Incorporated
HW 2/3/06 $37.50000
Think of this as a technology a stock. Yes, you're buying shares in a company with real revenue, $1.1 billion in the fiscal year that ended in September 2005, and real earnings, $2.79 a share. But the true growth prospects for Headwaters (HW) come not from its established business turning coal waste, such as fly ash, into concrete and construction materials, but from its technology-innovation group. That business has just finished testing a technology that promises to improve yields of lighter fuels from heavy oils by 20%, and it is looking to sign its first commercial contract. Other technologies in the group are used to turn coal into liquid fuels and in cleaning coal (and recovering coal from coal waste). These technologies will, I believe, start to contribute significantly to growth in the next few years, and if successfully commercialized should drive multiples on the stock well above today's price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times trailing 12-month earnings per share. As of Feb. 3, I'm adding these shares to Jubak's Picks with a target price of $47 a share by July 2006.
Das KZ von 47 für Juli bleibt wohl eine Illusion. Dennoch ist die Aktie jetzt wirklich günstig. Die Short-Quote ist auch riesig, so dass allein der kommende Short-Squeeze einige Gewinne verspricht.
Hier die Short-Interest-Quote, die bemerkenswert hoch ist. Wenn das Öl fällt (Gold-Blase lässt grüßen!) oder die Gesetzesänderung (Section 45k) kommt, sehen die Shorts alt aus: Es sind 9 x soviele Aktie geshortet, wie es dem täglichen Umsatz entspricht!
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Daher können sich die in Posting 41 und 42 genannten Probleme nur in diesem Sektor (28 %) auswirken. Ob das eine Kursrückgang von 40 % ab dem Hoch bei 44 Dollar rechtfertigt? Ich meine nicht, zumal bei der Kohleverflüssigung das letzte Wort noch nicht gesprochen ist.
http://www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp
Energy
Weighing the Alternatives in Energy
By Richard Suttmeier
5/17/2006 2:03 PM EDT
All the hype about alternative-energy stocks makes me think, here we go again. During the Carter presidency, in the wake of the oil embargo of 1973, the talk was that solar panels, wind and the tides would solve our energy needs.
Did you know that the angular roof of the Citigroup building in Midtown Manhattan was designed to include solar panels to supply its energy needs? Never happened! President Carter wore cardigans in the White House and told Americans to lower their thermostats to reduce fuel use in the winter. He was booted out of office. As soon as oil became plentiful again, the country renewed its overuse of oil.
Today we are running tremendous risks due to the instability of the countries that supply us with crude oil and the fact that 40% of our refinery capacity is in two locations that could be hit by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Refineries are at full capacity, and I hear only rhetoric that additional capacity will be built. The American response: Not in my backyard.
When crude oil reached $75.35 a barrel on April 21, ethanol plays Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) renewed momentum runs higher. Earlier this month when crude oil dipped below $70, these stocks took a hit. Other alternative-energy plays peaked out even sooner.
I believe that if the geopolitical risks subside and the hurricane season is benign, Americans will likely forget once again about the need to change our energy policy.
Nymex crude oil is stuck in a random trading range between my semiannual support of $64.58 and my quarterly resistance of $75.94. Higher prices have reduced demand, maintaining a ceiling on prices. However, geopolitical risks have built a floor at much higher levels than in the past. As crude oil trades towards support, the urgency of alternative energy will subside.
Alternative energy and ethanol have been hyped so much recently that most names are overvalued. The industry is 33.6% overvalued, as compared with 13.8% for the overall energy sector. These companies will likely remain overvalued as long as crude oil prices stay high. If you own them, I recommend trading around core holdings by using good-till-canceled limit orders to buy on weakness if they fall to my value levels and sell if they rise to a risky level.
The Ethanol Plays
Archer Daniels Midland, the self-styled supermarket to the world, converts corn to ethyl alcohol, some of which is converted to ethanol. ADM is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 37.8% overvalued, with fair value at $31.30. The weekly chart profile shows overbought momentum with the five-week modified moving average at $38.38.
ADM has gone parabolic, with no risky levels at which to sell. Investors long this stock should be aware of the risk if the ethanol bubble breaks. Investors should hold on to longs for now, but don't add to positions. Consider protecting long-term gains with a sell stop on a weekly close below the rising five-week MMA.
Pacific Ethanol is a 3-year-old company that is developing facilities to produce cellulose-based ethanol and biodiesel in the western U.S. It is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 65.7% overvalued, with fair value at $22.87. The weekly chart profile is overbought, with the five-week MMA at $31.76. Investors should reduce holdings if it rises to my monthly pivot, $39.07, and my monthly risky level, $42.82.
Other Alternative-Energy Plays
Evergreen Solar (ESLR:Nasdaq) already peaked at $17.50 on March 15. The weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week MMA at $12.09. Even though this name is 21.3% overvalued, investors should be prepared to add to positions on weakness to the 200-day SMA, $11.48, and to my monthly value level, $10.53. It held its 200-day on Tuesday.
Headwaters (HW:NYSE) provides technologies and chemical reagents used to convert coal into a liquid fuel. Headwaters shares peaked at $40.15 on April 3 and fell to a low of $31.64 on Tuesday. The company is rated a buy by ValuEngine and is 12.3% undervalued. The weekly chart profile is negative, with the five-week MMA at $34.91. Investors should buy on weakness to my monthly value level, $28.46, or on a weekly close above the five-week MMA of $34.91, which is declining each week.
If you own other alternative-energy stocks, send me the symbol via email, and I'll respond with my current profile.
Headwaters' Heady Quarter: Fool by Numbers
By Tim Beyers (TMF Mile High)
May 9, 2006
On May 8, Headwaters (NYSE: HW) released Q2 2006 earnings for the period ended March 31.
* Per-share earnings of $0.40 failed to meet Street estimates because management (Foolishly) decided not to recognize roughly $10 million worth of licensing revenue subject to at-risk Section 29 alternative energy tax credits.
* Regardless, Headwaters saw major improvements in several areas of its business. For example, long-term debt declined by just about $80 million [= 11 % - A.L.]. That, in turn, created $10 million in interest savings that flowed to the bottom line.
(Figures in thousands, except per-share data)
Income Statement Highlights
(siehe Anhang unten)
§
Cash Flow Checkup
No cash flow statement provided. (Whatever.)
Angehängte Grafik:
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Screen_00062.jpg
Dykstra: Back to the Well on This Pick
By Lenny Dykstra
Special to TheStreet.com
6/5/2006 9:55 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/options/options/10289725.html
...which leads to my pick this week: Headwaters (HW:NYSE) .
The last time I discussed Headwaters was back on April 25, when the stock closed at $33.89. The stock then rallied in anticipation of its earnings announcement May 8, trading as high as $36 on May 3 through May 9, the day after Headwaters said all of its major businesses reported revenue increases for the quarter. By segment, sales of coal combustion products increased 21% to $58.5 million, while sales of construction materials rose 21% to $131.7 million, and revenue from alternative energy rose 23% to $79.5 million.
As noted here, the accompanying spike provided a great opportunity to book profits on the original call on the August $25 calls.
Remember, this is not a "buy-and-hold" operation. Our goal is all about making money; we want to profit at least $1,000 after we purchase our deep in-the-money call. To help ensure that, we set a good till cancel (GTC) limit sell order. This way, we don't have to watch the tape every second the market is open.
We are protecting our investment -- if the stock makes a nice move and spikes up during the trading day, your order will automatically get filled because you set a GTC limit sell order. This will allow you to capture that $1,000 gain without making a phone call, or watching your computer all day.
Fast forward to the present: Headwaters common stock has been completely annihilated since May 18, when it lowered guidance to reflect the idling synthetic fuel facilities because of volatility in oil prices and customers' uncertainty over the phase out of certain tax credits.
I have been following this stock every day, and I have watched those operators just take this stock apart. It has been relentless! But it has finally found a bottom. That is why the Headwaters August $22.50, deep in-the-money calls, which closed Friday at $4.60, look good. This is one of those rare situations where we don't have to go out for to six months -- the company is just too good for this stock to keep going down
[sein Wort in Gottes Gehörgang...]
, and on Friday it acted like it found its bottom. Also, Jim Cramer, recommended Headwaters on his TV show, Mad Money, last week.
Dykstra: Back to the Well on This Pick
By Lenny Dykstra
Special to TheStreet.com
6/5/2006 9:55 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/options/options/10289725.html
...which leads to my pick this week: Headwaters (HW:NYSE) .
The last time I discussed Headwaters was back on April 25, when the stock closed at $33.89. The stock then rallied in anticipation of its earnings announcement May 8, trading as high as $36 on May 3 through May 9, the day after Headwaters said all of its major businesses reported revenue increases for the quarter. By segment, sales of coal combustion products increased 21% to $58.5 million, while sales of construction materials rose 21% to $131.7 million, and revenue from alternative energy rose 23% to $79.5 million.
As noted here, the accompanying spike provided a great opportunity to book profits on the original call on the August $25 calls.
Remember, this is not a "buy-and-hold" operation. Our goal is all about making money; we want to profit at least $1,000 after we purchase our deep in-the-money call. To help ensure that, we set a good till cancel (GTC) limit sell order. This way, we don't have to watch the tape every second the market is open.
We are protecting our investment -- if the stock makes a nice move and spikes up during the trading day, your order will automatically get filled because you set a GTC limit sell order. This will allow you to capture that $1,000 gain without making a phone call, or watching your computer all day.
Fast forward to the present: Headwaters common stock has been completely annihilated since May 18, when it lowered guidance to reflect the idling synthetic fuel facilities because of volatility in oil prices and customers' uncertainty over the phase out of certain tax credits.
I have been following this stock every day, and I have watched those operators just take this stock apart. It has been relentless! But it has finally found a bottom. That is why the Headwaters August $22.50, deep in-the-money calls, which closed Friday at $4.60, look good. This is one of those rare situations where we don't have to go out for to six months -- the company is just too good for this stock to keep going down
[sein Wort in Gottes Gehörgang...]
, and on Friday it acted like it found its bottom. Also, Jim Cramer, recommended Headwaters on his TV show, Mad Money, last week.
Aufgrund dessen hat HW gesagt, die Gewinne für 2006 würden zwischen 2 Dollar und 2,70 Dollar liegen. Da die Börse Unklarheit nicht mag (die Gewinnspanne ist zu breit) wird verkauft nach dem Prinzip: Erst verkaufen, später Fragen stellen.
Wer darauf wetten will, dass der Ölpreis dieses Jahr noch deutlich fällt, könnte sich HW ins Depot legen. Anderenfalls wettet man auch eine Änderung der Förderungsgesetze (da hab ich aber keinen Einblick, wie das ausgehen könnte).
The Motley Fool
Headwaters in Need of a Bailout?
By Tim Beyers (TMF Mile High)
June 21, 2006
Not long ago, I said there were 29 reasons to buy Headwaters (NYSE: HW), a coal recycling and construction company that recently joined the Motley Fool Rule Breakers portfolio. Now, I'm not sure.
Tuesday, the firm announced that it would seek $150 million in new debt to help pay down a senior secured credit facility. It's a good idea. Headwaters had $587.8 million in debt on its books as of the end of March. Interest expense equaled more than 47% of net income during the first quarter.
And that burden could grow. Headwaters has been subject to higher rates in recent months. Indeed, its weighted average cost of interest rose from 5.2% in September to 5.3% in March. And continued Fed rate hikes won't help control costs.
Enter the refinancing. A Headwaters spokesperson told me that the new debt would allow for the bulk of a variable rate credit facility -- which requires a balloon payment of roughly $155 million in 2011 -- to be repaid and replaced with a lower-rate, fixed-interest balance, due by 2016.
Sounds great so far, right? Of course it does -- it is. But I fear that Headwaters has been forced into this position. Large customers have recently idled synthetic fuel facilities, which could materially hurt Headwaters' alternative energy business. Accordingly, in May the company cut earnings guidance for the full year, from $2.60 to $2.75 per share to $2 to $2.70. Color me nervous.
It's even more nerve-wracking that the so-called section 29 tax credits -- on which Headwaters' alternative energy business has come to depend -- appear to have lost all support in Congress. Without them, Headwaters' 2005 tax rate would have been 38.5% instead of its reported 26%. Accordingly, and as the most recent annual report says, a phase-out of the credits could severely crimp Headwaters' net income -- and thereby, its cash flow.
Perhaps I'm being paranoid. If so, great, we all win. But if not, yesterday's announcement could be the first in a series of needed structural changes to Headwaters' business. And that's not likely to be good for anybody.
&a=909698&zeitraum=5&bname=&ind_news_art=&zeitvon=&bis=1160939254&zeitbis=&ind_volume=ON&cookies=HASH(0xa31851c)&boerse_id=21&von=0&banner_ref=HASH(0x9e8cdc4)&req_host=www.ariva.de&b=0&ind_gd38=ON "ariva.de")
Inzwischen ist Öl aber wieder billig genug, dass die Subventionen gesichert sind. Paradox, aber trotzdem gut für HW. Wie es mit den zur Eröffnung des Threads hochgelobten Nano-Projekten steht, weiß ich nicht, da ich HW nur am Rande verfolge und nicht investiert bin.
Und hier in Textform:
Der Aktionär - Headwaters kaufen
10:51 14.12.05
Die Experten vom Anlegermagazin "Der Aktionär" empfehlen die Aktie von Headwaters (ISIN US42210P1021/ WKN 909698) zu kaufen.
Im letzten Jahr sei es ruhig um die Nanotechnologie geworden, während die Börsenjahre 2003 und 2004 doch noch ganz im Zeichen der viel gepriesenen Zukunftstechnologie gestanden hätten. Auch der Run auf die Nanotech-Aktien habe sich abgeflaut. Investoren hätten sich in diesem Jahr mehr auf Blue Chips konzentriert, als auf die kleinen Tech-Werte der zweiten und dritten Reihe. Und obwohl der Nanotech-Index in diesem Jahr 14 Prozent eingebüßt habe, sei es in den letzten Monaten möglich gewesen, mit ausgewählten Nanotechnologie-Aktien satte Gewinne zu realisieren.
Anleger die auch zukünftig in Nanotech-Aktien investieren wollten, es jedoch lieber konservativ angehen möchten, für die sei die Aktie von Headwater das Richtige. In den letzten Jahren habe der Hersteller alternativer Energien mittels Nanokatalysatoren ein beeindruckendes Wachstum hingelegt. Das US-amerikanische Unternehmen arbeite bereits sei fünf Jahren profitabel und habe in diesem Zeitraum den Nettogewinn von 3 auf 121 Mio. USD gesteigert.
Headwaters habe im vergangenen Geschäftsjahr 2004/05 (30.09.) den Umsatzsprung über die 1 Mrd. USD-Marke geschafft. In Anbetracht der drohenden Energiekrise sei die Wachstumsstory von Headwaters noch lange nicht zu Ende. Ferner sei der Headwaters-Aktie mit einem 2006er KGV von 12 attraktiv bewertet. Das Kursziel sehe man bei 40 Euro. Zur Absicherung sollte ein Stoppkurs bei 20 Euro platziert werden.
Vor diesen Hintergründen empfehlen die Experten von "Der Aktionär" die Headwaters-Aktie zum Kauf.
________________________________--________________
FAZIT: Wer dem Aktionär gefolgt ist, hat sein Geld gedrittelt!
MfG
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