Aixtron purpose of this thread
For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.
Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.
Thank you
baggo-mh
Optionen
The classical formula of FCF= EBIT x (1-tax rate) - Capex + Depreciation - change of noncash working capital (NCWC).
NCWC = Inventory+ Account Receivable-Account Payable
Here, I am excluding other exceptional items that Aixtron includes in its FCF reports.
Lets start by looking at how much free cash Aixtron would earn in Q4'24 and therefore the whole 2024. The lower bounds of the 2024 guidance are 620m sales and 22% EBIT margin. So, the 2024 EBIT should be at least 620m x 22% =136.4m, which means the Q4'24 sales should be 214m and the EBIT should be 70m. Those numbers are almost the same as those from the current analysts estimates.
The Q4 CAPEX will be 32m, which brings the total 2024 CAPEX to 114m. The depreciation in Q4 will be 4m, which brings the 2024 depreciation to 14m.
So, excluding any NCWC change, the FCF for the Q4 quarter would be (10% tax rate): 70x0.9-32+6= 37m.
The biggest unknown is the NCWC especially the inventory. The Q3 NCWC was 504m and that
was 81% of the trailing twelve month sales which were 620m. Just picture this, 81% of the revenue was turned into and tied up in the noncash WC!!!. Honestly, in any other company the CFO would have been fired.
The inventory draw from Q4's 214m sales would be 214m x 40%=86m. The 40% is the cost of goods sold (COGS) and is the average number from Aixtron's 2023 annual report.
If there is no inventory addition in Q4 and the AP and AR stay the same as Q3, then the change of NCWC from at Q4's would be - 86m . As a result, the FCF generated in Q4 would be: 37m - (-86m)= 123m
Besides the inventory draw down from sales, Aixtron added inventories of 100m in Q4'23, 89m in Q1'24, 64m in Q2'24, and 41m in Q3. Based on that trend, I assume in Q4'24 Aixtron added 30m of inventory. So the net inventory change would be -86m + 30m = -56m, and the FCF in Q4 would be 93m. The inventory at the end of 2024 would become 371m. The NCWC/sales ratio should improve to 0.72.
For 2025, current analysts estimates are 609m sales and 140m EBIT. The capex is estimated to be 32m, and the deprecation should stay at about 14m. The FCF excluding change of NCWC would be 140m x 0.9 -32m +14m = 108m. The total inventory draw from the 609m sales would be 609m x 0.4= 244m. How much Aixtron would/should replenish the inventory? If we assume Aixtron adds back 120m inventory in 2025 (30m per Q) and no change in AP and AR, the change of of NCWC from 2024 would be -124m,and the FCF would be 108m-(-124m) = 232m. With these assumptions, the inventory at the end of 2025 would be 247m, and the NCWC would be 324m, and and NCWC/sales ratio would further improve to 0.53. I understand that this maybe too optimistic, but is that possible and doable?
Historically, Aixtron's NCWC/Sales ratios are 0.4-0.5 up until Q4'22. So, asking the CFO to achieve that reasonable level is not too much.
If Aixtron exits 2025 with a same backlog of today's 384m, the inventory/backlog ratio would be 247m/384m = 0.64. Historically, this ratio was 0.4-0.6 up until Q4'22. In a 2023 quarterly CC (Q2?), the CFO said a ratio of ~0.6 is the right one. I am challenging the CFO to manage the NCWC aggressively in 2025 and keep his words.
I don't need to remind the CFO but just look at the stock price. The only way for Aixtron's stock price to go back UP is to show a drastic improvement of FCF.
Adding the Q4'24's FCF of 93m and the hopefully doable projected 2025 FCF of 232m, Aixtron's cash position should add ~330m in addition to Q3'24's 78m. After dividends there could be at least 350m cash. Aixtron should use the excess cash to buy back the shares. Don't put all of it back to WC again please. If the customers want Aixtron to prepare for their "promised" ramp, ask them to pay the deposits first please. I hope that there would be no same mistakes in 2025 and beyond.
If not, the executive board should do something about the managers.
From the Q2'24 CC:
Michael Kuhn
... you mentioned some measures only taking effect into '25, maybe also a rough outlook on '25 and what level of inventories you would feel comfortable with over the upcoming quarters? ...
Felix Grawert
...So by the middle of '25, we want to be back to normal. So when we talk in 12 months from now, we want to be back to a normal level... And you will see a gradual digression by the Q3, not too much, don't over expect. And then you will see a digression of the inventories Q4, Q1, Q2 and by the middle of next year, we should be back to normal . It really follows from our strategy.
Michael Kuhn
And could you quantify it back to normal?
Christian Danninger
I would consider normal levels of 60%, 70% of order backlog with some further optimization of our internal processes, maybe we can get down even further but that would be my best guess right now.
.............................
From the horse's month, back to 60-70% of inventory/backlog ratio by the middle of 2025. My post in #1855 on 2025 FCF assumes the ratio would drop to 0.64 by the end of 2025
Innoscience disclosed that the net proceeds from the fundraising will be used to expand production capacity, product portfolio and other purposes. Specifically:
60% of the funds will be used to expand the production capacity of 8-inch gallium nitride wafers from 12,500 wafers per month as of June 30, 2024 to 70,000 wafers per month in the next five years . It is also planned to purchase and upgrade equipment and machines to expand the production line of the production base...
On December 16, according to local news from North Gyeongsang Province, South Korea's Apro Semicon has completed construction of a new gallium nitride factory in the High-Tech Valley National Industrial Zone in Gumi City .
According to data, Apro Semicon was established in July 2020 and has been committed to the development of GaN since its establishment. In December last year, Apro Semicon signed a memorandum of understanding for an investment of 60 billion won ( about 305 million yuan ) to invest in the construction of a GaN power semiconductor factory in the Gumi High-Tech Valley National Industrial Park, mainly producing GaN epitaxial wafers; the epitaxial wafers produced in the factory will cooperate with foundries such as DB HiTek to manufacture GaN chips.
------------------------
Apro is a customer of Aixtron
Globitech is a subsidiary of GlobalWafers and a SiC customer of Aixtron.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/23/...obe-into-legacy-chinese-chips.html
According to reports, this financing was jointly promoted by Xiamen Industrial Investment and two ICBC AIC funds, and received guidance and support from the Xiamen Municipal Government and the Municipal Finance Bureau. The fund investors include Xiamen Industrial Investment, Fujian Provincial Industrial Fund, Xiamen Industrial Guidance Fund, and Free Trade and Haicang District Guidance Fund, realizing the linkage of funds from central enterprises, provinces, cities, and districts. The target scale has reached 10 billion yuan , and the initial scale is 3 billion yuan .
-----------------------------
Note:
Epiworld bought a G5WWC a few years ago for 6" SiC epi wafers. However, I believe Epiworld did not go with the G5 but instead went with single wafer tools (LPE?). This time, perhaps Epiwrold would go with the G10-SiC for its superior performance for this 8" SiC ep wafers project.
The JV has been hiring engineers with Aixtron experience.
https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/digi/2025-01-14/...wwwc1343931.shtml
Is the tide turning?
MACOM unveils five-year, $345m plan to expand 100mm GaN and GaAs production and introduce 150mm GaN
https://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/.../macom-140125.shtml
North Carolina fab investment:
expansion of cleanrooms within existing building footprint;
installation of 150mm wafer-size production capabilities to support RF GaN-on-SiC processes;
installation of advanced metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) epitaxial growth capabilities;
infrastructure upgrades (HVAC, water, power systems)
"The investment could increase the substrate capacity by over 750,000 substrates per year and more than double the output of epitaxial wafers annually."
Die Umstellung der SiC-Produktion in Catania soll beschleunigt werden, as fast as possible von 6 auf 8 inch umgestellt werden. Damit will man schon ab H2 2025 produzieren für die westlichen Kunden. Das neue JV mit Saan'an in China soll direkt in 8 inch ab H1 2026 für die chinesischen Kunden produzieren (leichte Verspätung zur Ankündigung für Q4 2025 aus Mitte 2023). Ich würde behaupten, dass das SiC-Aufträge in 2025 für Aixtron bedeutet, was beim letzten Aixtron cc so nicht eingeplant schien. (Letzte Frage, letzte Antwort im Webcast, wer reinhören will)
Analysts now project 2025 sales of 566m and FCF of 182m. Assuming Aixtron pays out 45m dividend in 2025, then Aixtron COULD end the 2025 with 172m + 182m-45m=309m net cash.
The Finanzen.net site says 24.5 FCF in 2024 and 162.3m FCF with 575m sales in 2025. That would mean 279m net cash at the end of 2025.
Either way, Axitron should end the 2025 with significant cash.
Author: Atkinson | Published on February 26, 2025 at 17:30
Infineon Technologies publishes forecast report, supporting GaN multi-industry applications have reached a turning point
Infineon published the "GaN Power Semiconductor Forecast Report 2025", which emphasized that GaN will become a game-changing semiconductor material that will significantly change the way the public improves energy efficiency and promotes low carbonization in areas such as consumption, transportation, residential solar energy, telecommunications and AI data centers.
Infineon pointed out that GaN can bring significant advantages to end-customer applications, including improved energy efficiency, reduced size, reduced weight and lower overall cost. Today, USB-C chargers and adapters are the leaders in GaN applications, and more industries are about to reach a critical turning point in GaN applications, which will greatly promote the development of the GaN power semiconductor market. Johannes Schoiswohl, head of Infineon's GaN business line, said that Infineon is committed to promoting low-carbon and digital transformation through innovations based on all semiconductor materials including Si, SiC and GaN. With advantages in efficiency, density, and size, GaN will play an increasingly important role in comprehensive power systems. And given that the cost gap between GaN and Si is narrowing, we foresee GaN adoption continuing to grow this year and beyond.
In addition, GaN technology is critical to the power supply needs of AI. As computing power and energy requirements of AI data centers grow rapidly, the market increasingly needs advanced solutions that can handle the huge loads associated with AI servers. In the past, the output power of power supplies was 3.3 kW, but it is now developing towards 5.5 kW and is expected to reach 12 kW or more in the future. The use of GaN can improve the power density of AI data centers, which will have a direct impact on the computing power that can be provided within limited rack space. Except GaN has clear advantages. On the other hand, using it in combination with Si and SiC is an ideal choice to meet the requirements of AI data centers and achieve a comprehensive trade-off between efficiency, power density and system cost.
As for the home appliance market, Infineon expects GaN to achieve rapid development as applications such as washing machines, dryers, refrigerators and water pumps/heat pumps require higher energy efficiency levels. For example: In an 800 W application, GaN can improve efficiency by 2%, helping manufacturers achieve Class A efficiency. According to Infineon, GaN-based EV onboard chargers and DC-DC converters will contribute to higher charging efficiency, power density and material sustainability, and are transitioning to systems above 20 kW. GaN will also enable more efficient 400 V and 800 V traction inverters for electric vehicle systems together with advanced SiC solutions, increasing the driving range of electric vehicles.
Infineon Technologies said that because GaN materials can improve the compactness of volume, the robotics industry will widely adopt GaN from 2025, which will promote the development of delivery drones, nursing robots and humanoid robots. And as robotics converges with advanced AI technologies such as natural language processing and computer vision, GaN will provide the efficiency needed to enable streamlined, high-performance designs. For example, integrating the inverter into the motor main housing eliminates the need for an inverter heat sink, reduces the number of cables per joint/axis, and simplifies EMC design.
Infineon further emphasized that in order to address the challenges in cost and scalability, Infineon is further increasing its investment in GaN research and development. With the richest product and IP portfolio, strict quality standards, and cutting-edge innovative technologies such as 12-inch GaN wafer manufacturing and bidirectional switch (BDS) transistors, Infineon is consolidating its leading position in promoting low carbonization and digitalization based on all relevant semiconductor materials including GaN.
MoneyDJ News 2025-02-26 06:29:42 Reporter Cai Chengqi reported
New car sales in Europe fell again in January, with electric vehicle (EV) sales increasing by nearly 40%, while sales of US electric car giant Tesla dropped by more than 40%.
According to Japanese media reports, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) released statistics on the 25th, pointing out that although the sales of electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HV) have increased significantly, the sales of gasoline vehicles have plummeted, dragging down the sales of new cars (passenger cars) in the 31 major European countries in January 2025. The sales volume fell by 2% to 995,000 units compared with the same month last year.
In terms of sales by vehicle type, electric vehicle sales in Europe increased by 37% to 166,000 units in January compared with the same month last year. Among them, Germany's electric vehicle sales reached 34,000 units in January, 1.5 times the level of the same month last year. The UK increased by 42% to 29,000 units, Belgium increased by 37% to 13,000 units, the Netherlands increased by 28% to 11,000 units, and France decreased by 1% to 19,000 units.
In January, HV sales in Europe increased by 17% to 347,000 units, PHV (plug-in hybrid vehicle) sales decreased by 6% to 75,000 units, gasoline vehicle sales decreased by 20% to 290,000 units, and diesel vehicle sales decreased by 27% to 88,000 units.
In January, Tesla's electric vehicle sales in the European market were only 9,945 units, a 45% drop from the same month last year (18,161 units). In January, Tesla's sales in Germany were only 1,277 units, the lowest since July 2021. Its sales in the French market plummeted by 63%, and its sales in the British market decreased by 8%, losing to China's BYD for the first time in history.
According to the MoneyDJ XQ Global Winner System quotation, Tesla fell 8.48% on the 25th and closed at US$302.50, setting a new closing low in about three and a half months (since November 7, 2024).
Quelle:
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20250620PD211/...calization-miit.html
"Chinesische Autohersteller orientieren sich an den Vorgaben der Regierung und planen, ab 2026 Fahrzeuge in Massenproduktion herzustellen, die ausschließlich mit im Inland entwickelten und hergestellten Autochips ausgestattet sind. Peking strebt eine Verringerung seiner Abhängigkeit vom Ausland an." - Übersetzung google
Bezahlschranke:
Ich hoffe, das sie an Aixtronmaschienen nicht vorbeikommen.
und die Asienumsätze weiter stabil bleiben und natürlich weiter wachsen.
https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=5307
unterschiedliche Lösungsansätze der Hersteller könnten durchaus Synergien haben.
Wenn die Hintergrundbeleuchtung mit Micro Leds einfacher zu realisieren ist, bedeutet das ggf. einen schnelleren Markteintritt der Technologie und ggf eine breitere Masse.
Das die Testproduktion anläuft möchte ich mit euch teilen.
Trotzdem gutes Zeivhen, dass sich etwas tut.
Wir hoffen alle auf fen uLED durchbruch, aber mal schauen, wann er tatsächlich kommt.
Im Jahr 2011 haben wir alle vergeblich auch den solid state lifghting Einmarsch gewartet, wo das Management von Tausenden MOCVD Tools geträumt hat.
"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reported on July 10 (Reporter Chen Junqing) TSMC, the world's leading wafer foundry, has recently officially confirmed that it will gradually withdraw from the gallium nitride (GaN) wafer foundry business in the next two years.
Recently, Navitas Semiconductor released an 8-K document. It mentioned that "after learning that TSMC, the company's only gallium nitride wafer supplier, will stop GaN production in July 2027, Navitas will continue to plan to diversify its gallium nitride wafer supply sources. TSMC confirmed the withdrawal plan to the industry media, emphasizing that the decision was made after a complete evaluation based on market dynamics and the company's long-term business strategy.
As TSMC exits the gallium nitride foundry business, Infineon announced that its first samples on 300mm wafers (12-inch wafers) will be available to customers in the fourth quarter of 2025.
What impact will TSMC's withdrawal have on the GaN chip market? What are the reasons? How far has the 12-inch GaN wafer developed so far? How far are we from it? With these questions, the reporter of Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily went to Innoscience's global R&D headquarters in Suzhou and conducted an exclusive interview with the company's chairman Luo Weiwei and CEO Wu Jingang.
“The gallium nitride industry is not suitable for foundry”
Innoscience is the world's first company to achieve mass production of 8-inch silicon-based gallium nitride wafers, and is also the only company in the world that can provide silicon-based gallium nitride semiconductor products with a full voltage spectrum on an industrial scale. According to Frost & Sullivan, the company ranked first among all gallium nitride power semiconductor companies in the world in 2023, with a market share of 33.7%.
Regarding TSMC's withdrawal from the gallium nitride (GaN) wafer foundry business, Luo Weiwei shared several views with the reporter of the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily. She believes that "GaN wafers are not suitable for the foundry model. The structure of traditional semiconductor power devices is too simple and there is not much demand for foundry. Therefore, this model cannot provide sufficient return on investment (ROI) and lacks sufficient sharing and cooperation with customers."
In Luo Weiwei's view, GaN devices require deep collaboration with design and application, and directly connecting to the market through the IDM model (vertically integrated manufacturing) is a more suitable production method at present. TSMC's abandonment of GaN foundry business is a differentiated choice in the industry.
It is understood that Innoscience adopts the IDM business model. It has independent control over multiple links in the industry chain, including R&D, design, manufacturing, packaging and testing. Relying on the two major production bases in Suzhou and Zhuhai, by the end of 2024, the company's monthly production capacity of gallium nitride has reached 13,000 wafers, with a yield rate of over 95%.
Wu Jingang, CEO of Innoscience, said that the 6-inch foundry model is difficult to meet customers' design-in requirements in terms of cost, performance-price ratio and technology iteration speed. "No major manufacturer will make a big investment in the 6-inch field, because 6-inch is just a verification. Only when it reaches 8 inches and has a certain output scale will it be feasible."
Many industry insiders said that there are still major obstacles to the industrialization of 12-inch GaN wafers. Luo Weiwei believes that the main obstacle to the industrialization of 12-inch GaN wafers is that there are currently no MOCVD manufacturers in the market that have publicly announced that they have launched solutions that support 12-inch GaN epitaxy.
It is understood that MOCVD is the core equipment for the growth of gallium nitride epitaxial layers. Its importance is reflected in all aspects of GaN material growth, device performance, mass production feasibility and industrial competitiveness.
Secondly, the transition from 6 inches to 8 inches has become exponentially more difficult, and the technical challenges from 8 inches to 12 inches are even greater. Only when sufficient scale and efficiency are achieved on the 8-inch platform can 12 inches be attempted.
The reporter of "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" noticed that Infineon has not yet publicly disclosed the production of its 8-inch gallium nitride wafers.
GaN market demand increases significantly
In recent years, the application of GaN power devices in the market has seen rapid growth. Yole predicts that the global GaN power device market will grow from approximately US$500 million in 2023 to US$2.2 billion in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43%. TrendForce is more optimistic, predicting that the market size will exceed US$4.376 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 49%, with the main driving force(10.310, 0.02, 0.19%) coming from electric vehicles, data centers, motor drives and other scenarios.
Innoscience's 2024 financial report shows that the company has made major breakthroughs in the fields of new energy vehicles, AI and humanoid robots(17.010, 0.28, 1.67%) The number of automotive-grade chips delivered increased by 986.7% year-on-year, and the number of AI and data center chips delivered increased by 669.8% year-on-year, achieving rapid growth.
In terms of humanoid robots, Innoscience has launched a full range of 150V/100V gallium nitride products, covering various applications such as joint and dexterous hand motor drives, smart power conversion and battery tubes. Among them, 100W joint motor drive products have been mass-produced.
Luo Weiwei told the reporter of "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" that in the short term, the areas with faster business growth are mainly concentrated in consumer electronics. The reason is that the verification cycle of consumer products is shorter and the technical requirements are relatively low, so the market promotion and customer acceptance are faster.
In the long run, the industrial sector has a larger market space, especially as the technology matures and large-scale production is carried out, the competitiveness of GaN in industrial scenarios will gradually emerge. For example, high-frequency, high-voltage GaN devices have great potential for application in industrial power supplies, robots, artificial intelligence data centers and other fields.
Regarding the future research and development direction, Wu Jingang revealed that Innoscience will focus on automotive and industrial scenarios with 1200V devices as a breakthrough point to form differentiated competition with silicon carbide. Among them, automotive-specific gallium nitride devices are one of the key research and development directions of Innoscience. In particular, high-voltage bidirectional conduction GaN devices, Innoscience has begun to send samples to downstream customers this year, and the current customer feedback is good.
The second is the high-voltage part , which involves increasing research on low-voltage and high-frequency GaN power devices, with a high-frequency target of 8-10 MHz, targeting the GPU power supply market. The third is the research on 100V GaN power devices , targeting the 48V to 12V conversion of AI data centers, new energy vehicles, and robotics.
In terms of production capacity , Innoscience is expanding production and plans to reach a monthly production capacity of 20,000 wafers by the end of 2025, with the goal of producing 70,000 GaN wafers per month by 2028. Regarding the capacity construction, Wu Jingang said that at present, the clean room and conventional systems are ready, and only additional equipment is needed.
At the same time, according to Luo Weiwei's prediction, 12-inch gallium nitride wafers are expected to be industrialized after 2030.